Bitcoin has fallen to $95,000 after failing to reach the iconic $100,000 mark. However, according to ARK Invest, a leading investment management company, this is just a pause before Bitcoin continues to conquer new heights.
“We expect Bitcoin to trade between $104,000 and $124,000 by year-end,” ARK Invest researcher David Puell said in an interview. “While not an investment recommendation, the price action so far has been consistent with this forecast.”
Puell’s prediction is based on Bitcoin’s cyclicality — a term used to describe the asset’s price behavior across phases in previous bull cycles — as well as on-chain indicators. According to Puell, these cycles are still occurring and will continue until there is clear evidence to the contrary. This implies that Bitcoin is likely to peak before facing a sharp correction, similar to what happened in 2022.
“The market is currently in the middle of a bull cycle. If we measure from bottom to top, I would estimate that we are about 55% to 65% of the way through,” Puell said. According to on-chain metrics, Bitcoin’s cycle peak could be between $126,000 and $134,000, and those numbers could go higher if the market accelerates.
This forecast reinforces the view that Bitcoin returns are decreasing with each cycle as the asset matures. If Bitcoin tops $134,000, it would only double the $69,000 peak in 2021 — far less than the triple-digit gain of the 2017 cycle. ARK Invest is prepared for this scenario, but Puell admits that the current data is insufficient to draw firm conclusions.
Earlier this year, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood set an ambitious target, predicting a Bitcoin price between $1 million and $1.5 million by 2030, with a base target of $650,000. Puell believes that Bitcoin’s price could be boosted by the policies of the incoming Trump administration, depending on who the president-elect picks to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and how supportive the Federal Reserve is of risk assets. The prospect of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” could also be a factor.
“Monetary policy and the SEC’s stance will be factors to watch. A strategic Bitcoin reserve is not just the cherry on top of the cake, but a whole new cake on top of the old cake – not just something that adds something that is already good, but a significant increase or improvement, far beyond what was originally expected,” Puell said.
However, this does not mean that Bitcoin will grow indefinitely. Bitcoin’s cyclical and seasonal nature suggests that the asset could eventually enter another bear market, with a potential drop of up to 70% from its all-time high. The floor at which this happens will depend on the peak Bitcoin reaches before the cycle stops.
Source: https://tapchibitcoin.io/bitcoin-co-the-dat-muc-124-000-dollar-la-cuoi-nam-2024.html
