Today @cryptoquant_com CEO posted an article titled "Why is the altcoin season delayed?", proposing that the nature of capital flowing into $BTC has changed compared to the previous cycle.

Bitcoin’s current rally is largely driven by demand from institutional investors and spot ETFs, which, unlike exchange users, have no intention of switching their assets from Bitcoin to altcoins.

Additionally, because these assets and flows operate outside of exchanges, fund rotation inherently becomes less feasible, and even though institutional investors can allocate funds to major altcoins through ETFs or investment vehicles, minor altcoins still rely on Cryptocurrency exchange users purchase.

In order for an altcoin's market cap to reach ATH, a significant amount of new funds will need to flow into centralized exchanges, with altcoin market caps lower than their previous ATH showing a reduction in new liquidity for new exchange users.

But according to my review of past history, the market value of TOTAL1 is also at a new high, and TOTAL2/3 has only caught up (as shown in the figure). Therefore, I personally think that based on the price history of BTC.D ETH/BTC and ETH, the counterfeit season will not be late.

*Note:

TOTAL1 is the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization, TOTAL2 is the total market capitalization excluding BTC, and TOTAL3 is excluding BTC ETH.

BTC.D ETH/BTC and ETH can be observed with reference to the weekly 2021/3/22 and 2024/11/18.