Hello everyone, I am Hu Laoda. After the price of Bitcoin dropped back to $90,800 last night, the market began to show voices of a major counterattack with $90,000 as support. Many friends in the cryptocurrency community believe that the price of Bitcoin will rebound strongly after hitting the bottom of $90,000 and will re-establish itself above $100,000. This perception is incorrect. First, we need to understand the current price trend cycle of Bitcoin. It is clear that the price of Bitcoin is currently in a bullish adjustment cycle. What is a bullish adjustment cycle? Simply put, it is a rapid decline followed by oscillation. Conversely, a bearish adjustment cycle is a rapid rebound followed by oscillation. The premise of bullish and bearish adjustments is that the overall trend is upward and the overall trend is downward. Why do we say that the price of Bitcoin is in a bullish adjustment cycle now? First, the price of Bitcoin experienced a significant rise after Trump's election, reaching the line of $99,500. It is evident that the price of Bitcoin can reach this level due to the frenzy of retail purchases and the actions of major players in suppressing and liquidating shorts. Therefore, short-term price adjustments are an inevitable phenomenon. Thus, we can observe that the recent price adjustment of Bitcoin has been a decline to $95,000, then a rebound to $98,000, and then a decline to $91,000. This trend, from a technical perspective, is a small cycle wave downward trend. We are currently in the 4th wave rebound trend of the downward wave. As of now, 2024.11.27.23:46, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to around $95,500 and is looking for the high point of the 4th wave of the downward trend.
We previously discussed $95,000 as the point of two pullbacks and rebounds at the hourly line level, so this position has some chip support to form a short-term support level. However, during the consecutive declines and adjustments on the 25th and 26th, the support at this position was insufficient, and the pattern has already been broken. Therefore, the bullish chips at this position have only two forms: either they are liquidated or they are stuck. As the price touches the bottom and rebounds back to $95,000, there will definitely be selling pressure and actions to close positions. Therefore, the range of $95,000-$97,000 is gradually forming a short-term pressure process. Pursuing bullish positions at this level carries risk, while short selling has the potential for profit.
From the perspective of market sentiment, we have already analyzed. The market sentiment should gradually lean towards neutrality. The short-term liquidity should have a long-short ratio: bulls slightly dominant. Market sentiment should gradually calm down, and consensus correction has occurred, but the magnitude of the correction is still insufficient. Therefore, to reach the market consensus correction level of $87,000, the price of Bitcoin must experience wide-ranging oscillations, with an unusual pattern. From the MACD indicator, the hourly line's dif and dea lines have already broken through the zero axis and are rising, but the bullish volume may be prematurely increasing or about to exhaust. The 4-hour line is still in the process of forming a golden cross with bearish volume reduction, but this position is very likely to form a golden cross trap. Even if the bulls continue to rise, they will only return to around $97,000 at most, and breaking the new high of $100,000 may still take time. Pursuing bullish positions carries risk. I prefer to wait until reaching the $97,000 position to set up short positions.
Alright, that concludes today's sharing. Thank you for watching. If you think what I said makes sense, I hope you can like and subscribe. If you have your own views on the market, feel free to share them in the comments! See you next time!
