If your friends reach out to you with questions about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies, it’s not easy to guide them given the current market conditions (BTC is close to $100,000). This is especially true when they are inexperienced rookie investors. Below are some lessons I’ve learned over the past decade. Ensure that the actions they take are their own responsibility. You may have more experience and knowledge, but that doesn’t mean you are absolutely correct. No one understands everything happening in this market.
If someone claims to understand a lot, they are certainly lying. You can try to explain to them what stage of the market cycle we are currently in. For me, we have been in this bull market cycle for 2 years. Starting from the bottom 2 years ago, BTC has increased over 6 times, ETH over 4 times, and SOL over 30 times. The painful truth is that as token prices rise, people's attention increases, and this attention subsequently translates into purchasing power. Therefore, the more prices rise, the more people focus on the subsequent return space, but generally speaking, the later we enter the "attention cycle", the less favorable our position is. So the best entry point is often when almost no one is paying attention, but that was 2 years ago. When they are eager to buy tokens, even if the current entry point isn’t the best, what should be done?
Keep it simple: Personally, if they are rookies, I would tend to recommend holding a certain proportion of BTC, ETH, and SOL (50/25/25%), with the rest of the risk being borne by them. At the very least, if they mess up the "entry/exit", they will still maintain a certain amount of funds. If they choose small coins, encourage them to learn and keep it below 10% of their total allocated funds to minimize risk.
Given the current entry price, if they double their investment, it encourages them to withdraw their principal at that point, which also ensures profits. Subsequently, if their funds have tripled, they can cash out all their funds, or if they wish to be a bit more adventurous, they can cash out 2x the funds they've earned and maintain the remaining 1x funds (the cost), but they should try to understand the potential crazy crashes that can occur in a bear market. (If they are die-hard Bitcoin supporters who may never want to sell, that's fine, but they must be prepared to face adversity at some point.) Selling off in a bear market is caused by panic and fear of selling, but exiting during a bull market becomes relatively difficult; sometimes they might resent you if they feel they sold too early, but they will thank you later. They also need to be cautious; if they choose to take profits and then can't resist re-entering the market, reinvesting those profits, if the market continues to rise, can turn into FOMO—this mindset usually leads to adverse outcomes. Because if the market suddenly crashes, they may ultimately find that the taxes owed on realized gains are greater than the remaining assets they hold (this happens frequently).
Every sale of cryptocurrency is a taxable event, even if it's an exchange of one cryptocurrency for another. Once I start cashing out funds, I plan to keep them in a principal-protected interest-bearing account in traditional finance (TradFi) for 12 to 18 months—high-yield crypto stablecoin accounts do not count as cash management because there is still crypto market risk in these accounts, and the leverage accumulated in a bull market could wipe you out. First, I will settle my tax liabilities before I start looking for new investment opportunities again, which usually happens when people panic and lose their minds, or ideally, when market enthusiasm wanes and people become indifferent (this often occurs more than 12 months after the market peaks). Although exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and potential sovereign purchases may imply that Bitcoin (BTC) will not see a severe bear market in the future, every time a bull market arrives, people find various reasons to justify absurdly high peaks or claim that a bear market won’t occur.
"Super cycles" are, without exception, a collective delusion.
I can see why cycles repeat (peaking in the fourth quarter of 2025) and why they might extend and break the four-year pattern. Although we may consolidate after the new U.S. president takes office, I don’t believe the theory that cycles are shortening. This is just post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from bear market trauma. Having said that, structurally, anything that grows at a rate of 100 times is prone to at least an 80-90% retracement at some point—mainly because there are too many profit-taking positions. If SOL rises to $800 in this cycle, then in the future (like 2027) it could drop to $80-160.
So, if someone buys at $240 and holds firmly, they will lose money in the next bear market. It’s hard for people to realize this amidst the frenzy of a bull market, but since you’ve been through it, you understand, and now you can teach them :) Given the current price (SOL has already risen more than 30 times from the low), no one can get rich or gain crazy multiples from it, but they will see others making a lot of money, so it’s hard to resist the temptation—if you tell them not to buy and to wait because the "final crash" will bring prices below the current level, they will feel pain, as depending on the asset, there is still a 2-5 times or even higher potential for price increases to reach the peak, making everything very unstable. One last point I want to elaborate on is that many inexperienced investors think more in terms of dollars ($) rather than multiples (X) or percentages (%) . For example, if you say SOL might rise to $1000, they think, wow! That would increase the value of each SOL by $760!
However, rising from $8 to $240 only adds $232 in value per SOL. What they don’t realize is that rising from $8 to $240 is a 30-fold increase, while rising from here to $1000 is only a 4-fold increase. It is crucial for investors to truly understand this.
#XRP市场价格动向
