$ubc (9psiRdn9cXYVps4F1kFuoNjd2EtmqNJXrCPmRppJpump) was launched at 11-26 8:07, reaching a maximum of 25M that day, then dropping to 11.4M at 23:37 before starting to rise, reaching a maximum of 113.1M. What factors led to this overnight surge of 9 times?
Let's first clarify the narrative of $ubc:
$ubc is for autonomous AI to access computational resources fairly, and kinos is the operating system for AI agents. Currently, more than 20 AI agents are operating for writing books, creating music, coding, etc., among which 10 AI agents wrote this book (Terminal Velocity).
$ubc and kinos's dev is NLR@LesterPaints, who is the co-founder and CTO of the French AI company DigitalKin, which has been established for 2 years and collaborates with Nvidia.
a16z's AI partner @venturetwins tweeted at 11-21 2:13 about the book being written on $ubc and GitHub.
$ubc is the only token in the ecosystem, created by NLR on pumpfun.
Upward time: 11-26 23:37~11-27 4:26.
1. Twitter Data
According to convention, we first analyze Twitter dissemination, filtering out all tweets between 11-26 8:07 and 11-27 4:26, with more than 500 followers. The data acquisition time is 11-27 11:51:05.
The first tweet is from NLR@lesterpaints at 11-26 21:44:14, with a reading count of 15,326, discussing the vision in a video. Then at 22:01:24, he posted the official Twitter account of $ubc, with a reading count of 11,898. He tweeted the third one at 11-27 02:43:24, detailing the reason for creating $ubc on @pumpfun, with a reading count of 48,014.
NLR's tweets are the best in both timing and dissemination, inspiring us to closely monitor the official and dev's Twitter.
The second tweet is from @misterraycrypto at 11-26 22:21:47, with a reading count of 20,842, mainly discussing what $ubc is doing. His second tweet at 11-27 02:16:35 had a reading count of 14,267, stating that $ubc broke through 30M, while also posting data showing that users are primarily whales, and the funding inflow in 24 hours ranks first.
The third tweet is from @alexmasoncrypto at 11-26 22:50:25. He is doing a challenge from $1 to $1000. His private channel at 9:29 AM called $ubc with 2.3M, and the public channel called at 20:37 with 22M.
The fourth tweet is from @whalewatchalert at 11-27 02:01:28, with a reading count of 15,212, reporting that a whale bought 32.34K of $ubc.
These are several key tweets with good dissemination data, but combining their tweet times and price conditions on the candlestick chart does not allow for effective correlations; we can only treat them as good sources of information to obtain key insights.
2. On-chain data during the rise.
We divide the upward part into 5 segments, as shown, analyzing which addresses played a key role in the price rise in each segment.
The first period is from 11-26 23:36:00 to 11-27 01:10:00.
The address for the first purchase is BH84Uo2YAnyWRUWeWyfFzttRmE51V682xUaD6NrLHM88, with a total of 15 purchases worth 170,000u. After purchasing, the holding is Top16, with a current yield of 300% and no sales yet.
The address for the second purchase is GUT2KtprxxgmRERjJhd11y8W6EPD9YDyyU9CaMVTXxKY, with a total of 12 purchases worth 113,000u. After purchasing, the holding is Top25, with a yield of 370%, and no sales yet.
The address for the third purchase is 5t9Q4ia71sCQmg5TEtiQPerBpez773Poub1vXd4nezRQ, buying 46,000u in this range. This address also made multiple purchases at 16:00 and sold some at the peak, currently holding Top23.
The second period is from 2024-11-27 01:21:00 to 2024-11-27 01:52:00.
The address for the first purchase is CLhxXDchUtnwsn62Vp4zP1f2sRFXyZq2VjzvSeFRc93t, with a total of 14 purchases worth 137,000u. This address made multiple purchases both before and after this period, totaling 265,000u, and is currently holding Top16, with no sales yet.
The address for the second purchase is 2PSSWvjNmgyB9fJXhBDtku2uPBBNbyQF8CDimdRKNsK5, with a total of 8 purchases worth 100,000u, and after this period, there were 2 more purchases, totaling Top41, with no sales yet.
The third period is from 2024-11-27 02:05:00 to 2024-11-27 02:25:00.
The address for the first purchase is FjoTCAFMKStE18gBHVJdgNHXLhWvYExDdcek7Hiisyai, with a total of 8 purchases worth 64,000u. This address also made multiple purchases later, with the final holding at Top46, and no sales yet.
The fourth period is from 2024-11-27 02:47:00 to 2024-11-27 03:12:00.
The address for the first purchase is Eqxr8e3tuavYEV5xbomqkCrrkJ69xVaGNm5ZwKc4k2aZ, with a total of 14 purchases worth 158,000u. There were multiple purchases both before and after this range, with a total holding of Top20, and no sales yet.
The address for the second purchase is EkXQ8cxbf5AoJSvQqmvAfLHDxB1qakiSS9FuTn1cdqBM, with a total of 27 purchases worth 109,000u. There were multiple purchases both before and after this range, selling some at the peak, with current holdings at Top28.
The address for the third purchase is 7JqxsZ89cAAzLY7qcZTQ1gkPcnurEaw6QaXr6RG31t1u, with a total of 8 purchases worth 90,000u. This address made early purchases and has now liquidated, with a profit of 117,000u.
The fifth period is from 2024-11-27 03:31:00 to 2024-11-27 04:23:00.
The address for the first purchase is CTRWQ3mn1VSPdZgJdA3GiLCcBo1vA24gPnZGma89mrKn, with a total of 23 purchases worth 217,000u, and there were multiple purchases after this period, currently holding Top9, with no sales yet.
The address for the second purchase is 7JJjwVewyw9PPNw9soxdgj8UJGiB1h7kYSHp1aHsKaQb, with a total of 8 purchases worth 199,000u, having made purchases and sales before the rise, currently holding Top29.
The address for the third purchase is 6K2d9LvM3i47P9FxzEQP4hXZwiHA2c2wgfzGTeTvJqj8, with a total of 4 purchases worth 176,000u and no sales yet.
These addresses played a key role in price increases during the uptrend, although some addresses are not listed one by one. If there are holdings, we need to closely monitor when these addresses offload, as their holdings are at the forefront, and any offloading will greatly impact the price.
3. Whale holdings before the rise.
I'm quite curious about the interval from the opening to 11-26 23:37 where it dropped to the bottom, which whales still have large positions unliquidated, and their operations have significant reference value for our buying and selling.
The first-ranked address is FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j, which bought 100sol within half an hour of opening, currently holding Top1, with a yield of 7091%, and no token distribution yet.
The second-ranked address is 5wagRVSuUBZqDhBVR899emmu7WRWMVAEShdwjyGYJBKi, which bought 30,000u, sold part of it, and the remaining holdings are Top4, with a yield of 4210%.
The third-ranked address is 24JaAVF4xVPcDPNwR4kyR4pcra9uuLJnc2bwATSH5KVh, which bought 10,000u, sold part of it, and the remaining holdings are Top3, with a yield of 13516%.
The fourth-ranked address is BteM1tDqVK1WkySReqR3dGKFA1FZtzjHmrLQrCopwH4D, which bought 40sol in one purchase, currently holding Top5, with a yield of 11554%, and no token distribution yet.
The fifth-ranked address is 3HtWz7iMnbSJtrG4Jq5A3FcJoEN5gEZz95hkUPXBgNeG, which bought 100,000u, currently holding Top8, with a yield of 612%, and no token distribution yet.
Through the above analysis, we can draw the following conclusions:
1. Timely monitor the official and dev's Twitter so we can obtain the most timely information.
2. Keep an eye on the addresses that play a key role in the price increase in the second part to guide our selling.
3. When most whales in the third part still hold their positions, under good fundamentals, it can serve as a reference indicator for buying.
4. In the process of analyzing Twitter data, it was found that some tweets benchmark $radio(B4gipVUHKJ7keVN3MWEYDQCHjkdoXGsbmZoTSJDZpump) against $ubc. Currently, the market cap of $radio is 4.5M, and the candlestick pattern is in a downtrend, so we can follow up later.