What will be the catalyst for ETH this time? Will there be strong driving factors, or will it ultimately be weak, relying only on rotation to rise at the last moment?

From the current situation, the probability of providing a casino function like Solana is low, as Solana has a significant advantage in this area. Moreover, there are not many obvious signs of the kind of DeFi boom that was prevalent in 2021.

It seems the most likely scenario is the expectations and rollout of stakable ETFs. Until Solana's ETF is approved, this should be a relatively reliable narrative. If institutional recognition of ETH can develop to the level of BTC, even if it’s only half, that would be the biggest positive for the fundamentals.