The information in this article is valid for 12 hours from the time of publication.
Quick summary:
In the short term, BTC is in a correction phase and needs to observe the 92,000 level and signs of breakout to confirm the next trend.
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Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Across Timeframes
Daily Frame (D1): Profit-Taking Pressure After Price Increase
On the daily timeframe, BTC has just experienced a strong increase and reached the psychological resistance level near 98,000 USD. Currently, the price is in a slight correction phase with an important support level at 92,000 USD.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI on the D1 timeframe hovers around the 50 mark, indicating a balanced state between buyers and sellers. However, this is also a sign that upward momentum is gradually decreasing.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator is starting to converge and weaken. This indicates that selling pressure is dominating and there is a potential for short-term price decrease.
Bollinger Bands: The width of the Bollinger Bands is beginning to narrow, signaling a decrease in price volatility. This often occurs before the price breaks out strongly in one direction.
Overall, the daily frame indicates that BTC is currently pausing after a strong increase. If it cannot hold the current support levels, selling pressure may increase.
4 Hour Frame (H4): Accumulation Before Direction Choice
Switching to the 4-hour frame, BTC has slightly decreased after reaching a short-term peak of 98,000 USD. Currently, the price is accumulating around the 92,000 - 94,000 USD range.
Bollinger Bands Signals: BTC is testing the lower support area of the Bollinger Bands. This is an important zone that will determine whether the price can bounce back or continue to plunge.
RSI and MACD: These indicators both show signals of short-term weakening. RSI hovers below 50, while MACD is in a state of negative divergence.
Trading volume: The trading volume shows no breakout, reflecting a rather cautious market sentiment.
The H4 frame indicates that BTC may continue to accumulate for a while before showing clearer signs of trend.
1 Hour Frame (H1): Ready for Breakout
On shorter time frames, BTC is gradually stabilizing after the recent decline. The price range of 92,000 USD is serving as a short-term support.
Market sentiment: Major investors (whales) are currently withdrawing some funds, while retail traders maintain a cautious mindset.
Bollinger Bands: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, indicating that the market may be preparing for an upcoming volatility explosion.
Low volume: This reflects market waiting, but also means that any strong push could lead to significant price movement.
Money Flow Data: Large Inflows are Retreating
Another important factor to consider is the money flow. According to data, large inflows have decreased significantly in the last 24 hours. This indicates increasing selling pressure from institutional investors or large traders. However, average and retail money flow remains stable, which may help the price maintain around the current support level in the short term.
Forecasting Scenarios in the Next 12 Hours
From the analysis above, we can construct three main scenarios about BTC's price trend in the next 12 hours:
Scenario 1: Price Increase (Probability ~30%)
If BTC surpasses the resistance level of 94,000 USD with increased trading volume, the price may advance to the 96,000 - 98,000 USD range. Factors supporting this scenario include:
Surprising volume increases significantly.
Money flow from major investors is returning to the market.
However, for this scenario to occur, BTC needs confirmation with a strong bullish candle along with a surge in volume.
Scenario 2: Price Decrease (Probability ~50%)
This is the scenario with the highest likelihood of occurrence. If BTC fails to hold the support level of 92,000 USD, the price may drop to 90,000 USD – this is the next strong support zone.
Selling pressure from major investors is currently dominating.
Both the RSI and MACD indicators lean towards a short-term downward trend.
Scenario 3: Sideways Movement (Probability ~20%)
In the case of balanced buying and selling power, the price of BTC may continue to fluctuate within the range of 92,000 - 94,000 USD. This will be an accumulation phase before the market decides to break out in a specific direction.
Narrowing Bollinger Bands is a sign of accumulation.
Low volume indicates a lack of decisiveness from both sides.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is facing a crucial turning point in the short term. With the current technical factors, BTC is likely to experience significant volatility in the next 12 hours. Traders need to pay attention to important support and resistance levels:
Support: 92,000 USD, 90,000 USD.
Resistance: 94,000 USD, 98,000 USD.
Closely monitoring technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, and money flow will help you grasp the upcoming trend. Always prepare for all three scenarios and make trading decisions that align with your acceptable risk level. The cryptocurrency market always holds opportunities but is also fraught with risks. Trade smartly and mindfully!