Bitcoin is currently testing price levels below the important threshold of $95,000 and has dropped over 4% in the past 24 hours.
Meanwhile, PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) has shared a bold prediction about MicroStrategy's Bitcoin accumulation strategy, suggesting that the company could own over 1 million Bitcoin by January 1, 2030.
This prediction is based on polynomial estimation methods, a statistical method used to forecast future trends based on past data.
According to this analysis, MicroStrategy could own exactly 1,039,965 BTC by the specified date.
PlanC also points out that the current trend indicates the company is ahead of schedule to achieve this goal.
With MicroStrategy currently holding about 386,700 BTC, the polynomial trend line indicates that by December 8, 2025, the amount of BTC the company owns will surpass the current amount, showing they are on track to exceed the milestone of 1 million BTC a year earlier than originally predicted.
The trend line shows a continuous accumulation of Bitcoin, affirming that MicroStrategy's strong buying strategy will continue.
MicroStrategy's 2030 outlook
MicroStrategy has made Bitcoin purchases at an average purchase price of $35,180 per coin in April 2024.
This has resulted in an unrealized profit of over 80% on the amount of Bitcoin the company owns.
The company has increased its share count by over 80% in the past four years to fund these Bitcoin purchases, but this has also led to a significant rise in debts, from $913 million in 2020 to $3.95 billion in Q1 2024.
Currently, MicroStrategy owns approximately 386,700 Bitcoin, purchased for $21.9 billion, with an average purchase price of $56,761 per Bitcoin.
Although the company's stock has risen over 515% this year, it has dropped more than 15% in the past week after Citron Research, a short-selling firm, announced that they are betting against MicroStrategy's stock.
Source: Michael Saylor/X
Best and worst-case scenarios
The future of MicroStrategy heavily depends on the price volatility of Bitcoin.
In the worst-case scenario, if the value of Bitcoin collapses before revenue from MicroStrategy's subscription segment grows enough to offset the decline in traditional revenue, the company's value could plummet sharply due to stock dilution and increased debt.
In the best-case scenario, if the price of Bitcoin skyrockets, MicroStrategy's balance sheet will be significantly strengthened.
Optimistic predictions about the future of Bitcoin include a price that could reach $3.8 million by 2030 according to Cathie Wood (Ark Invest), $1 million around 2040-2042 according to Chamath Palihapitiya, and even $1 billion around 2028-2030 according to Fidelity.
Current market summary of MicroStrategy
If Bitcoin achieves even a small fraction of these price targets, the amount of Bitcoin that MicroStrategy holds could far exceed the current market value of the company.
For example, if the price of Bitcoin reaches $1 million by 2030 and MicroStrategy doubles the amount of Bitcoin it holds, the company's equity value could soar to an enormous $380 billion.
Assuming this amount of Bitcoin still represents 25% of the company's enterprise value, MicroStrategy could grow to $1.5 trillion, providing enormous profit potential for investors, up to 50 times its current value.
On the other hand, many analysts are concerned that this massive accumulation could be a worrying issue, as if MicroStrategy plans to sell Bitcoin, it would create an unprecedented liquidity crisis in the cryptocurrency market.
The pace at which MicroStrategy achieves this goal is feasible if the company continues to hold Bitcoin for another 4 years.
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