Macro interpretation: International gold and crude oil prices fell sharply yesterday, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures experiencing a plunge, and oil stocks also showed weak performance. This was mainly due to the agreement reached between Israel and Lebanon on the terms of the ceasefire, which is expected to end the prolonged conflict lasting over a year between both parties. This news alleviated market concerns over disruptions in crude oil supply and eased local conflicts, reducing risk aversion and causing gold and oil prices to decline. Many may wonder why BTC also fell? Let's discuss in detail separately:
1. The reasons for the decline in crude oil prices are twofold: first, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon alleviates concerns over supply disruptions; second, there is an oversupply of crude oil, with slowing global economic growth and a shift in energy consumption leading to weak demand, while oil-producing countries like the United States are increasing output to offset the effects of OPEC+ production cuts.
As for the long-term trend of oil prices, different institutions have different views. The OPEC+ meeting in December may delay the increase in supply, providing support for oil prices; Goldman Sachs pointed out that there is potential for crude oil to rise in the short term, while the medium-term price risk is skewed downward; JPMorgan predicts that by 2025, there will be a surplus in global crude oil supply, leading to declines in Brent and WTI crude oil prices.
2. The international gold price has also fallen sharply. Israel and Lebanon have reached an agreement on the terms of a ceasefire, which has alleviated geopolitical tensions, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion and causing gold prices to be affected. Multiple media outlets reported related details, such as the ceasefire agreement including a transition period, withdrawal of Israeli troops, deployment of Lebanese forces, and the establishment of a supervisory committee, among other contents. Furthermore, the conflict between Israel and Lebanon continues, with the Israeli military conducting airstrikes on the command rooms of the Lebanese Hezbollah Executive Committee, and Hezbollah launching attacks on Israel.
Regarding the impact on the gold market, gold prices face pressure in the short term but remain attractive in the medium to long term. In the short term, news of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has led to a decrease in risk aversion, with some investors taking profits, which is the main reason for the sharp decline in gold prices in the short term. Additionally, a strengthening dollar, fluctuations in the US macroeconomic environment, and Trump's nomination of Basent as Treasury Secretary also exert certain pressure on gold prices.
From a medium to long-term perspective, some supporting factors still exist. Global economic uncertainty remains high, and demand for gold may increase as the year-end approaches. The long-term logic supporting gold prices, such as re-inflation and de-dollarization, has not yet reversed. The expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold. Furthermore, global geopolitical risks have not completely disappeared; once tensions rise again, demand for gold as a safe haven may quickly rebound. For instance, Goldman Sachs analysts predict that driven by the normalization of demand from individual investors and institutions, gold prices will rise to $3,000 by December next year; UBS also believes that by the end of 2026, gold prices will further increase. For investors, a diversified investment strategy can be adopted, such as allocating various assets like gold spot, gold ETFs, gold stocks, and gold futures, to achieve portfolio diversification and reduce the risks of holding a single asset.
3. The cryptocurrency market is influenced by multiple factors, leading to significant market volatility. The progress of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has somewhat affected market sentiment, causing investors' preferences for risk assets to change, and some capital may flow out of the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, the sharp decline in Bitcoin prices has triggered panic in the market, leading to the liquidation of over 170,000 accounts. From a medium to long-term perspective, the trend of the cryptocurrency market still has considerable uncertainty. Policies after Trump's administration, such as support for the cryptocurrency industry or trade protectionist policies, may have different impacts on the market. On one hand, supportive policies for the cryptocurrency industry may promote its development; on the other hand, trade protectionist policies may increase inflationary pressure, impacting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and thereby affecting market liquidity. Simply put, if the dollar strengthens, it could suppress BTC prices. We also need to pay attention to market changes to avoid excessive chasing, in order to cope with potential market volatility.
BTC Fundamentals + Data + Technical Analysis:
In addition to the macro factors affecting the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, the cryptocurrency market itself has inherent logic affecting the decline of BTC prices. According to CoinAnk data, there has been a net outflow of $438 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs, marking a record scale for this period; MicroStrategy also fell by 4.4%, forming a linkage; and ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and PCE data release, many positions were closed for profit-taking to avoid potential large fluctuations.
Data also verifies that after Bitcoin's price approached $100,000 and reached an all-time high, long-term holders of 14 million BTC are all in profit territory, which has triggered accelerated selling behavior. Since Bitcoin's price crossed the historical high, it has triggered a selling wave of over 200,000 BTC, which is not a small-scale change. Long-term holders, when Bitcoin's price trend is strong and market demand is sufficient to absorb sell orders, initiate profit-taking, and in this process, ETFs have played a critical role, absorbing over 90% of the selling pressure from long-term holders. However, considering that the current unrealized profits have risen to more extreme levels, it is estimated that more long-term holders will accelerate their selling pace. In the short term, this selling scale has exceeded the inflow of ETF funds, leading to a decline in BTC prices.
BTC fell from around $99,000 yesterday to a low of around $92,326, which aligns with our previous assessment of a "four-hour level top divergence adjustment, and is likely to form a daily death cross, entering a significant correction." We will continue to monitor the performance of US stocks, gold, and the dollar index tonight, as they may continue to form linkages.
According to CoinAnk trends, the analysis indicates that breaking below $95,000 has turned into a four-hour bearish trend, with significant chips distributed just below $91,000, which is also close to the first support level we analyzed yesterday. Key support levels below are around $87,000 and $85,000. Resistance above is referenced at the recent high point of the $98,870 - $99,588 range, as well as the historical high.
Text: laolibtc
CoinAnk Data
