After several days of hitting new highs and being less than $200 away from the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin's price stagnated and fell back from Friday's high. Initially, Bitcoin dropped to $98,000 on Sunday, but bears further pressured it, and Bitcoin's price fell below $96,000. Since Friday, Bitcoin's market value has shrunk by over $60 billion, dropping below $1.9 trillion.
Overnight, Bitcoin's counterattack brought the altcoin sector to rise, but after being hit, it closed with a doji. This morning, Bitcoin continued to backtrack, once breaking below 93k, and dragged the 5-day line to turn down.
What will be the future trend of Bitcoin?
The current trend is exactly the same as in 2020, rising from October and doubling by November 25. Last time it was from 10,000 to 20,000, this time it's from 50,000 to 100,000.
In fact, the best situation would be for Bitcoin to oscillate at a high level, allowing Ethereum to take over and drive many altcoins to take off!
When Ethereum continues to rise, even if Bitcoin breaks the 92,500 support, it gives Ethereum the space to pull back. It's a relatively good condition for a bull market relay.
If the market only has Bitcoin itself driving the rally, then retail investors' funds may never catch up with Bitcoin, but the catch-up of altcoins will definitely attract retail funds to chase, or attract retail investors to sell their already-rising altcoins, thus helping Bitcoin break through in terms of funds and sentiment. After Bitcoin rises, it can stop and wait for altcoins, and this cycle can create the familiar altcoin bull market!
Recently, many people are curious about the future trends of various coins, such as whether Pepe can surpass Doge, whether Ethereum can reach 4,800, or whether Act can increase tenfold.
Share my judgment method:
First, look at the current situation. BTC dropped nearly $5,000 yesterday, while ETH didn't drop much, and altcoins also didn't drop. The fact that altcoins didn't drop proves that as long as you play with leading or strong coins, and don't chase the highs, the probability of losing money is low, such as the strong coins of public chains like XTZ, FTM, including meme coins like wif, floki, and the main battlefield still needs to give more positions to meme coins. At this stage, it's definitely not possible to expect dozens of times increases, so there's no need to fantasize; at least the macro conditions have to be large-scale interest rate cuts for that to happen.
Now let's get to the main topic.
First, judge the market trend from a macro and data perspective:
In terms of risks, as long as the US economy does not decline and the unemployment rate does not rise significantly, leading to recession expectations, and there is no liquidity crisis or other black swan events globally, the conditions are relatively good.
The good news is that this wave of trend after the election has not yet ended; even if interest rate cuts are paused next month, especially with Trump taking office on January 20, according to historical experience, the performance of the risk market in the first hundred days of a new president is usually good. For cryptocurrencies, there will be further easing from interest rate cuts, expectations of ending balance sheet reduction, Trump's commitments to cryptocurrency hype, and the hype around cryptocurrency legislation.
So overall, the current trend is far from over and still has something to look forward to. The trend hasn't changed, the direction of monetary easing hasn't changed, and the benefits of the election have not fully materialized. I still insist that even if I'm bearish, I won't short. Always ready for an outbreak.
Secondly, since this wave of trend is still viable, if altcoins are to rise sharply, ETH is extremely crucial. The recent rise of Ethereum is a good sign.
So which tracks can be expected in the upcoming trend?
Maybe if ETH rises sharply next, it will hype the memes on the ETH chain. Of course, this doesn't mean Pepe can surpass Doge, I didn't say that.
This is based on market speculation, expectations of large exchanges, market makers, narratives, and past price trends to calculate valuations. After all, no project can keep rising indefinitely; it will eventually pull back and wash out, then we look at whether it gets hyped again or continues to rise.
The madness of doge is due to strong narrative hype (this month because of Musk's mention, that pnut is also the same, right?), entered large exchanges, liquidity is under strong pressure, can attract external funds, and has experienced a wash beforehand. This creates the current situation.
What about other memes? You can reference this model to consider. Similarly, public chains, AI (including AI + memes), games, and other tracks are also applicable.
The above are all personal judgments and thoughts, not investment advice.
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