This article analyzes the trends and starting times of BTC, ETH, SOL, and altcoin seasons during past bull markets in 2021, 2023, and 2024, as well as a summary of how to grasp the current and future altcoin market in the bull market. The full text exceeds 3,000 words and requires a lot of patience to read. However, you can scroll to the bottom to see the conclusion. I believe reading it all will yield good rewards. Thank you all.
Having experienced the cycles of bull and bear markets and witnessed the rise and fall of many sectors, the crypto market is a stage of ever-changing winds and clouds, filled with infinite possibilities. Here, knowledge is constantly iterating, and only through continuous learning can one keep pace with market rhythms and gain wealth within their understanding. As the saying goes, "A day in the crypto world is a year in the human world"; such rapid changes are precisely the unique charm of the crypto market. The views are for reference, and if there are any disagreements, feel free to discuss and exchange. Thank you (all K-line trends are based on weekly data).
From the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021, up to May 19.
As shown in the chart:
The first wave from October 5, 2020, to December 21, 2020: BTC surged significantly first, ETH fluctuated upwards, and during this stage, ETH appeared quite weak from the K-line perspective.
The second wave from December 28, 2020, to February 22, 2021: BTC surged and then saw fluctuations, while ETH started a significant surge with slight fluctuations.
The third wave from March 1, 2021, to May 19, 2021: BTC fluctuated at high levels, ETH started a significant main upward trend until May 19 arrived, both dropping together to wash out.
In the early stages, BTC surged, and in the later stages, ETH surged. Let’s take a look at the trends of each altcoin sector.
Platform coins like BNB, MX, HT: Started a significant upward trend on February 1, 2021, after a period of fluctuation.
Meme sector: Doge is at the tail end of the first wave, entering the second wave with a significant main upward trend. SHIB has been in a volatile washout since it landed on Uniswap in August 2020, officially starting its main upward trend in January 2021 until May 19 arrived.
Public chain sector: Referencing SOL, AVAX, CHR, ADA, DOT, ATOM, FTM, ENJ, VET, etc., all of which started their second wave of main upward trends on December 28, 2020. THETA, NEAR, INJ opened in the middle to late stages of the first wave.
Gaming and metaverse sectors: Referencing AXS, MANA, SAND, etc., the first wave experienced fluctuations, and the second wave started significant upward trends.
DEFI: Refer to UNI, SUSHI, MKR, 1INCH, ALPHA, COMP, etc., all of which started their second wave, with a few experiencing fluctuations during the first wave.
Other sectors: For example, the very popular FIL at the time, and old coins like ETC, only started their main upward trends in the third wave.
Summary
In this wave of main upward trends, BTC surged first, even reaching new historical highs repeatedly, while ETH remained in a fluctuating upward trend until the mid-to-late stage when ETH genuinely followed suit, then the main upward trends for various altcoin sectors began in succession. The sectors listed here are not exhaustive, as the major sectors have all performed quite well, with many opportunities for profit, especially in MEME, L1, gaming, etc.
Note: Most of the projects here were launched on Binance in 2019-2020; the metaverse and gaming, which were extremely hyped in 2021, were basically on Binance by 2020, proving Binance's grasp of new narratives and sectors in the market. As for public chains, this has always been a popular narrative for speculation. Meme is the rise of Dex in 2020, along with Musk's endorsements of DOGE and SHIB, which gradually made MEME popular.
The second main upward trend of 2021: from July 2021 to the end of 2021.
As shown in the chart: From July 2021 to November 2021, the main upward trend of BTC and ETH is almost overlapping, both rising together. As for the previously mentioned altcoin price increases, let’s take a look at the trends of each altcoin sector; those who have experienced it should still remember clearly.
Meme sector: Although DOGE did not experience significant increases in the second half of the year, SHIB surged tenfold after May 19, and many good projects emerged in the Meme sector, such as BABYDOGE, FLOKI, etc.
Public chain sector: In the second half of the year, AVAX, SOL, CHR, ENJ, ADA, FTM, etc., have all reached new heights.
Gaming and metaverse sector: AXS, SAND, MANA, RACA, etc., have all reached new heights.
DEFI sector: Basically cooled down in the second half of the year, with no new speculation to drive prices up.
Other sectors: For example, FIL, old coins like ETC, BCH, etc., have not seen any new speculation or price surges. Thus, the entire year of 2021 has come to an end.
Summary of the altcoin movements during the 2021 bull market:
Macroeconomic background: After the 2020 election, the entire year of 2021 was a liquidity injection cycle due to the pandemic, making it the largest liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve since 2008. In such a macro environment of monetary easing and rampant liquidity, BTC rose nearly seven times from $10,000 in October 2020 to $69,000, while ETH increased more than 14 times from $340 in October to $4,870.
As for altcoins, did they really experience a universal rise? In the first half of 2021, just before May 19, there was indeed a universal rise, but in the second half, many sectors lost momentum and began to harvest market liquidity directly.
PS: How do you define the universal rise of altcoins in a bull market? If it’s 5-10 times or more than 10 times increase, then the universal rise rate is about 70% or more. Many friends might say, "In a bull market, you only earn 10 times? That’s too little." Okay, if we define a universal rise as over 30 times, then I can tell you that the universal rise rate is at most 20%.
Only public chains, gaming, metaverse, and Meme are the sectors that have always been hyped. Then there’s DEFI, and actually there are many less popular sectors I haven't listed, such as music, fandom, infrastructure, etc., which are basically at their peak or playing dead.
Moreover, the popular speculative sectors of public chains, gaming, metaverse, and Meme have basically all launched their second waves around 2019-2020, especially those projects that went live on Binance in 2020, regardless of direct listings or IEOs. So, should we pay attention to projects launched on Binance from 2022 to 2024? Don’t rush; it will be mentioned later.
As for the projects launched in the first wave of the bull market in 2021, regardless of whether they were on large or small exchanges, how many are still alive now? Do you remember? Those who remember probably feel stuck.
From October 2023 to March 2024, the third main upward trend.
As shown in the chart: From October 2023 to March 2024, the main upward trend of BTC and ETH is almost overlapping, both rising together. As for altcoins? After experiencing the bear market of 2022, new popular sector projects have emerged, such as AI, ETH's L2, LI's modular blockchain, etc., while the metaverse's popularity has faded.
Let’s take a look at the situation of public chains, L2, AI, gaming, and Meme sectors. If we rank the sectors based on the extent of price increases, it would be public chain = Meme > AI > gaming.
Old public chains: ETH, SOL, INJ, CKB need not be mentioned.
New public chains: SEI, TIA, SUI, TAO, NTRN, 5-10 times.
Meme: ORDI and SATS (BRC20's Meme), PEPE, WIF, BOME, BONK, FLOKI, 5-10 times and above.
AI: ARKM, WLD (related to AI, let’s put it in the AI category for now), 5-10 times.
Gaming: PIXEL, PORTAL, XAI, ACE, etc., 50%-2 times.
Other sectors such as DEFI and infrastructure: PENDEL and ID, 5-10 times.
ETH's L2: ARB, OP, STRK, have seen some increases but not much; METIS has performed well, with a 10 times increase.
Excluding the aforementioned projects, other sectors have not seen much of an increase, and are not in the speculative hot narrative sectors.
Summary
Macroeconomic background: After experiencing the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the increase was paused in September 2023, coupled with the speculation and trading of BTC’s spot ETF.
The previous mention of liquidity injection refers to expanding the balance sheet, and this time point is about contracting the balance sheet. Naturally, market liquidity is limited, and the limited funds are concentrated in the main sectors, which cannot be compared to 2021. Therefore, it is almost impossible for all altcoin sectors to experience a universal rise. The enduring narrative of speculation remains in public chains and MEME. As for gaming, I personally believe it is still mainly due to limited market liquidity, and the surge of SOL and the rise of Meme on SOL have taken away too much market liquidity.
Do you all remember what I mentioned earlier? Projects launched on Binance's secondary market from 2022 to 2024 are worth paying attention to. Except for the old public chains, other sector projects are mostly those that went live on major exchanges in 2022-2023. So we should grasp this trading experience and see if it continues to hold true.
The market situation from October 2024 to now (this sharing of the current market is also my personal summary of the larger context, from BTC, ETH, SOL to various altcoin sectors)
I won’t include charts for the trends of BTC and ETH, as everyone is aware of the small fluctuations in the altcoin projects.
So far, the only sector that has taken off and surged is MEME. Even within L1, SOL and SUI are performing well, while others are playing dead. The good news is that right now, at the moment I am writing this article, ETH seems to be gaining momentum.
Conclusion
Macroeconomic background: The interest rate cut cycle began in September 2024, coupled with Trump, the new U.S. president with a crypto-friendly attitude. By Q1 next year, the contraction of the balance sheet may be nearing its end, along with the spot ETF. Although liquidity has not yet been injected, it has finally shifted from tightening to easing, a new four years that is very much worth looking forward to.
The first wave is from now until Q1 of next year, then we will see whether there will be an economic recession in the US or other black swan events. If so, it will be another 312 event, followed by a situation similar to 2020-2021, which will be shared in detail then.
If there is no economic recession in the US and a soft landing occurs, then there will be no 312 event, and the music will continue.
BTC, SOL, BNB, including the new public chain SUI have all risen, driving the increase in the MEME sector, while other sectors have been relatively quiet. Just as we analyzed earlier, the rise of ETH is needed; coincidentally, ETH is gaining momentum right now, seemingly starting the second wave. (As of the publication, the market response seems to echo what I mentioned earlier, L1 is also exploding, which is an enduring narrative of speculation.)
Since ETH has started its second wave of increases, given the macro background, the probability of a universal rise in all altcoin sectors is very high. However, if you want to pinpoint a specific sector that performs well, it is worth choosing: new and old public chains, MEME, L2 on ETH, and AI-related projects (like AI + MEME). As for gaming, it’s not that I’m not choosing it; it might just be a bit behind.
What is the speculation in the crypto market often reflects on specific coins, so how to find and judge the next speculative sectors in the crypto market? Look at the projects launched on Binance and the macro situation in the US, along with what is reported by major US media.
Since 2022, the most listed projects on Binance are in the public chain, Meme, L2, gaming, AI, DEFI (I don’t want to write about this sector; what do you want? Want to get rich quickly? Isn’t Meme and public chains enough?), RWA and DEPIN (showing some signs), and for other sectors, it’s still the same saying: if you want to get rich quickly, focus on Meme, L1, gaming, AI; how can you not seize the opportunity?
In terms of grasping the new narrative and new sectors in the market, Binance is the industry's barometer, along with the liquidity it provides, which is undeniable.
More importantly, U.S. information is crucial; just look at the price increases of DOGE and PNUT to understand everything. So it must be paid attention to. As for SOL, don’t forget that this is a project created by strong U.S. capital investment and market makers; in fact, SUI, APT, OMNI, ALT, etc., are all similar.
Timing and selection of coins have been marked. Getting in isn’t hard, but what about getting out? For any project, one must consider the market background, the sector it belongs to, the exchanges it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX), the market makers involved, the ceiling of similar sectors, and the narrative prospects to calculate potential valuations. No project can keep going up indefinitely; there will always be washouts, even BTC is no exception. The market is counterintuitive; FOMO emotions are not good at all.
