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Those who have been following us will find that the current trading system is completely different from the trading systems we had two or three years ago. Of course, we have learned some advantages from the past, but our views on trading technology itself, or trading philosophy, have undergone a significant adjustment. All indicators and tools are merely that—tools. The purpose of these indicators is to determine corresponding resistance levels, support levels, and even target levels. But essentially, the trading market cannot be fully understood; what we see is actually a market that manifests within the scope of our cognition, not the essence of the market.
So, does the market have an essence? In my view, it does not have an essence. If it had an essence, there wouldn't be a thousand people with a thousand opinions, which is to say, everyone sees it differently. Therefore, the market we observe is the market within our cognitive scope.
Today, we will approach this from the perspective of using channels as a tool to discuss the potential positions for Bitcoin’s adjustment and the heights it could reach in the future. Why is this video being made? It is mainly based on many viewpoints that say Bitcoin will reach 150,000 or 200,000; every individual could be correct or incorrect. Since trading cannot be fully understood, predictions are merely predictions; otherwise, they cannot be called predictions. Alright, let's get back on track and look at the price trend of Bitcoin.
Yesterday's close was quite good, with a long bearish line of 6.41%, which is also the largest drop in the past month. Some people say that at this position, is there a major player unloading? It is just a normal action pullback. From yesterday's K-line, there was no huge volume; as long as there is no huge volume, it generally does not indicate that large institutions or major players are unloading. Thus, a normal technical pullback will become the main theme for this period, so everyone need not panic too much.
Its pullback is due to the exhaustion of bullish momentum, which has already been reflected in the MACD indicator. As for the MACD indicator, a commonly used tool, you will find that the bullish momentum is actually showing a retreat at the daily chart level, meaning the upward momentum has weakened. In other words, those who should take profits have taken some profits, and those who should have been liquidated have also liquidated some. So, Bitcoin's momentum is declining, and the daily chart level also shows a dead cross, which indicates a divergence at the daily chart level. Thus, the adjustment will not be too low. It may exceed some people's expectations or anticipated values, but the real test is faith, your grasp of the trend, and your endurance regarding profit withdrawals from your account; 99% of people cannot pass this test.
So what position is Bitcoin most likely to return to? We can find that Bitcoin has actually consolidated in this area for a month. You will notice that it has just followed two channels. So is Bitcoin finished rising this time? Of course not. Let’s take a look. This time, Bitcoin follows two channels and consolidates within one channel.
So, we need to understand this channel. When we drift downwards again, you will notice a problem; in the previous wave of market movements, during this bullish market, it also followed two channels. This step downwards is also a drop of two channels. So, Bitcoin's starting point for the channel activation is 19,000, which is the historical high, formed in 2017. After breaking through this high point, it followed two channels.
We know that the price of Bitcoin is very likely, based on this method or rule of measurement, to drift upwards after breaking through historical highs. At this point, it may break through this historical high, and then it could follow two channels. These two channels are likely events.
So, if Bitcoin breaks out of these two channels, the price could go up to around 120,000 - 130,000, and this position may also be close to 140,000. So, there are people in the market saying 150,000, 180,000, or 200,000; those are other people's opinions, and everyone's views differ. Only when reaching this position does the real risk begin to manifest.
When it reaches this position, it may experience a larger degree of pullback. So this time, it is merely a pullback in the midst of a rally. The most likely pullback position we need to know is that, fundamentally speaking, you need to wait for the MACD indicator to return to the 0 axis, or near the 0 axis, or for it to form a golden cross again. Correspondingly, in terms of price, we need to observe this secondary line because Bitcoin has broken through, retested, and after retesting, this position may become a very important support level at 85K.
Bitcoin actually still has room to fall. Nine Brother's view is that he does not believe it has completed a pullback; at least, the pullback has not been confirmed. Therefore, in the coming two weeks, or one week's time, it will be quite difficult to endure. Whether Bitcoin is consolidating horizontally at a high position or pulling back, it is a normal phenomenon, but it does not mean that the market has no improvements.
We can look at it from another angle. Bitcoin's market share has actually reached a high point of 61.5%, and at this position, it is currently declining. Its market share is starting to fall. What does this decline in market share mean? It means that Bitcoin, when it reached a high point earlier, its market share indicates that funds will begin to be pulled out from the Bitcoin market.
So where does the money go? The first is stablecoins. After being drawn out, it may return to stablecoins. From historical trends over the past ten years, this is a trend line. So every time it dips near this trend line, the market share of stablecoins begins to rise. This means that Bitcoin is likely to decline, indicating where this portion of funds is flowing.
So what else is in the second part? There are altcoins. As for the market share of altcoins, we also pay attention to the market share of altcoins, which has reached a low point during this period. After this low point, we can find that it is also a trend line, and you will notice that the market share of altcoins has begun to rebound. What does this mean? It likely indicates that a rotation of altcoins might occur next, but not necessarily, because funds are flowing into stablecoins on one hand and altcoins, or Ethereum, SOL, etc., on the other. In the early stage of the first wave of rising, funds may experience outflows.
So, how do we respond to such issues at this stage? We need to look at it technically, we need to have expectations, and secondly, we need to guard against risks, which vary from person to person. From my perspective, this overall trend is moving upwards; it is merely a mid-course pullback. Therefore, in terms of position control, I might not drastically reduce my positions, maintaining a relatively high position, because at the bottom, there is significant profit to be made, which does not affect your larger emotional state. However, some people, when their capital is not particularly large, may try to make a swing trade, selling off at a high point and buying back at a low point, but I can only tell you that this could lead to missing out.
So this is a different situation, a method of position control that varies from person to person. So which one are you? You decide for yourself. At this position, for prudence's sake, you might want to maintain about 60-70%, 80% is already quite a lot. When Bitcoin returns to a certain position, we can slowly add to our positions. As for which sectors will rotate or rise, actually since yesterday, Monday, and even last week, we emphasized that during the process of Bitcoin's price decline, it is very likely to flow into certain coins and altcoins. You can also consult in the discussion group. Alright, that's it for today's sharing.
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