As the leader of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has always been the focus of investors. Recently, after reaching a high of $99,000, Bitcoin has pulled back, leading investors to speculate whether Bitcoin's price can break the six-figure barrier. The predictions from Kalshi and Polymarket reveal to some extent the market's expectations.
According to the latest market data from AICoin, Bitcoin is currently reported at $94,503, down 4.63% from its high of $99,000, with a market cap share of 55.91%.
Short-term correction, the probability of breaking $100,000 before December is low.
Kalshi and Polymarket are two active prediction market platforms that predict the likelihood of events through user trading and market data analysis.
According to the latest data, Kalshi currently estimates that traders believe the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 before December 1, 2024, is low, at 32%. Compared to predictions a few days ago, this number has slightly decreased recently. This means each 'yes' contract is worth 33 cents and 'no' contract is worth 68 cents.
Image source: Kalshi
On Polymarket, traders estimate that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before December 1, 2024, is also low, currently at 36%. Just yesterday (November 5), this predicted probability remained above 50% until before 9 PM, indicating that market confidence in Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before December has noticeably decreased.
Image source: Polymarket
The predicted probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket indicate that the market's confidence in Bitcoin reaching six figures in the short term is not strong, which may be due to concerns over whether Bitcoin can stabilize at high levels, coupled with the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Investors seem to prefer holding stablecoins or traditional financial assets during uncertain times.
Long-term bullish, with the probability of breaking $100,000 by the end of the year exceeding 60%.
According to the latest data, Kalshi estimates that traders believe the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 before January 1, 2025, exceeds 60%, reaching 66%. Although this number has slightly decreased compared to predictions a few days ago, it still exceeds 50%, indicating that the market remains psychologically inclined to believe that Bitcoin will break the $100,000 mark during this bullish market this year.
Image source: Kalshi
On Polymarket, traders estimate that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before January 1, 2025, is as high as 73%, far exceeding the 50% probability.
Image source: Polymarket
This suggests that despite short-term pressure on Bitcoin, the market remains optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects in the long run. This optimism primarily stems from several factors: global inflationary pressures lead investors to seek safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin's status as digital gold is further solidified. Additionally, Trump's election has brought new policy support for Bitcoin. The market generally expects that the Trump administration may adopt more cryptocurrency-friendly policies, further driving up Bitcoin's price.
IG Australia Pty market analyst Tony Sycamore stated that the recent Bitcoin pullback is a 'much-needed correction to eliminate overbought readings, rather than a reversal or any sinister behavior.'
Market trader Crypto Jackson also tweeted that although the market is correcting today, there is no doubt that the crypto market is in a bullish trend.
Image source: x
Summary
Overall, although Bitcoin's price may be affected by market fluctuations in the short term, in the long run, with the continued attention of institutional investors and changes in the global economic environment, the goal of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 by the end of the year remains achievable. In the coming months, market participants should closely monitor Bitcoin's price movements, as well as changes in policy and the economic environment, to better seize investment opportunities.
