After reaching a historical high of 99588 USD during the just-concluded weekend, Bitcoin entered a mode of oscillation and decline. Yesterday evening, it started a significant pullback from around 98500 USD, dropping to a lowest point of 95745 USD at midnight. However, as of the time of writing, it has rebounded somewhat, currently quoted at 98528 USD, down 0.13% in the last 24 hours.
In the context of the decline in Bitcoin's trend, over the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidation across the cryptocurrency network reached 495 million USD, with long positions liquidated at 364 million USD and short positions at 131 million USD, affecting over 193,000 people.
Bitcoin daily chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin daily chart, the current price is operating near the upper band and has briefly broken through it, indicating that the bulls are still strong. However, the price has risen excessively, with the possibility of a pullback. If the price continues to operate near the upper band and does not break below the middle band, it indicates that the bullish pattern has not changed. However, if the price breaks below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, it may undergo a deeper pullback.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin daily chart, the K-line and D-line are at high levels, and the J-line is already in the overbought area. The K-line and D-line show signs of turning down, indicating that there may be a risk of pullback in the short term. If the KDJ three-line values form a death cross downward, the downward pressure will increase. However, if it can maintain high-level consolidation without forming a death cross, there may still be a possibility of continuing to rise.
Lastly, according to the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin daily chart, both the DIF and DEA lines are operating above the 0 axis, but the two lines are gradually converging. If a death cross pattern forms subsequently, the market will begin a pullback. Although the MACD histogram is red, it shows signs of shortening, indicating that the upward momentum is gradually weakening.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H chart of Bitcoin, the current price is oscillating between the middle and upper bands, with the upper band exerting some pressure on the price. The middle band acts as support, and if the price breaks below the middle band, it may move towards the lower band. If the price returns to the upper band and breaks through, it will continue to move upwards.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator on the 4H chart of Bitcoin, the KDJ three-line values are running at a high position, but the K-line and D-line show signs of turning down. The J-line has started to retreat, indicating that there is a pullback pressure after overbuying in the short term. If the K-line crosses below the D-line forming a death cross, it may trigger deeper downward pressure. If the KDJ continues to golden cross upward after consolidating at a high position, it will extend the upward trend.
Lastly, according to the MACD indicator on the 4H chart of Bitcoin, the MACD red histogram continues to shorten, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening. The DIF line is also approaching the DEA line, and if a death cross forms subsequently, the short-term downward risk will increase. If the DIF line continues to rise and moves away from the DEA line, it indicates that the bullish strength still dominates.
Comprehensive analysis shows that from the Bitcoin daily chart, Bitcoin is currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a strong upward trend. Both MACD and KDJ indicate that there may be adjustment pressure in the short term, but the Bollinger Bands still show the presence of bullish strength. The 4-hour level shows signs of weakening short-term momentum, primarily reflected in the shortening of the MACD red histogram, KDJ turning down, and the pressure from the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. However, the middle band still provides support, and the overall trend has not completely weakened.
In summary, I offer the following suggestions for reference.
Suggestion 1: Long Bitcoin when it retraces to around 98000-97800, targeting 99800-100000, with a stop loss at 97400.
Suggestion 2: Short Bitcoin when it rebounds to around 99800-100000, targeting 97600-97400, with a stop loss at 100400.
It's better to provide you with a correct mindset and trend than to give you a 100% accurate suggestion. After all, teaching a man to fish is better than giving him fish; suggestions may earn a moment, but mindset earns a lifetime! Focus on the mindset, grasping the trend, planning the market layout and position. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone, guiding your investment decisions and business management in the right direction.
Writing time: (2024-11-25, 18:00)
(Written by - Master Says Coin) Special declaration: The network publication has a delay, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the investment fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, stocks, etc., having been involved in the financial markets for many years with rich practical experience. Investment carries risks, and market entry requires caution. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the account of Master Says Coin for discussion and exchange.
