Table of contents:
1. Review of BTC's weekly trend and technical analysis;
2. An overview of the crypto market, quickly read the rise and fall of popular currencies/capital flows of sectors in the week;
3. Spot ETF fund inflows and outflows: $3.38 billion flowed in last week;
4. CEX outflow exceeded 35,000 BTC in a single week, and the balance hit a new historical low;
5. The weighted funding rate of BTC contracts is high;
6. BTC contract liquidation map;
7. BTC market capitalization ratio correction and altcoin index rebound;
8. Token large amount unlocking data preview.
9. Interpretation of fundamental hot topics: Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
1.BTC weekly trend review and technical analysis:
Last week, BTC maintained an overall upward trend, rising from a low of $89,276 to around $99,588, with the maximum increase of 16.24%. After hitting a record high near the $100,000 mark over the weekend, it came under pressure and pulled back to $95,735 before rebounding. The weekly closing price was around $97,900, with an overall weekly increase of 8.95%.
CoinAnk trends show that since Trump won the election on November 6, the US election day, the market has been in a clear bullish trend. The current trend support band has moved up to around US$95,000, which will also become the watershed between long and short bands. If the market stabilizes above the support band in the future, the bullish trend will be maintained and it is expected to continue to set new historical highs; but if it effectively falls below US$95,000, it will be bearish in the medium and short term and enter an adjustment cycle.
Currently, it is in the repair stage of the four-hour MACD top divergence. As time goes by, the market may form a daily level dead cross, and then there will be a large correction. The current support below is around 91860, 87000 and 85000 US dollars. The short-term resistance above is around the 100,000 US dollar mark and the historical high.
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/capital flows in the sector in the past week
In the past week, the crypto market was divided into concept sectors, and the scale of capital inflow was concentrated in several major areas such as Optimism ecology, Arbitrum ecology, Solana ecology and Avalanche ecology. The scale of the first three sectors was close to 2 billion US dollars, and the Avalanche ecology also had a net inflow of more than 1 billion US dollars. Therefore, we can see that in the second half of last week, these concept sectors saw a rotation of altcoins.
However, the main reason for the large amount of net capital inflows in these three concept sectors is the large amount of issuance of USDT and USDC stablecoins. In the last three days of last week, Tether issued a total of 5 billion USDT, of which 2.83 billion USDT flowed into the crypto market. In the past 20 days, the total net issuance has reached 13 billion USDT.
3. Spot ETF fund inflows and outflows: US$3.38 billion flowed in last week.
CoinAnk data shows that since Monday last week, BTC spot ETF has been in a state of net inflow, with a cumulative inflow of more than 3.38 billion US dollars, setting a record high for weekly net inflow, and a net increase of 26,861.87 BTC. BlackRock IBIT continues to lead the way, increasing its holdings by nearly 220,000 BTC in a single week, accounting for 72.3% of the total increase. At present, the total asset value of BTC spot ETF is 107.488 billion US dollars, and the ETF net asset ratio (market value to the total market value of Bitcoin) is 5.48%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached 30.843 billion US dollars.
The continuous inflow of ETF funds has also pushed up the price of BTC. However, compared with the mining output of only 3,150 coins, the supply-demand imbalance has also caused the number of BTC circulating in the secondary market to continue to decline.
4. More than 35,000 BTC flowed out of CEX in a single week, and the balance hit a new historical low.
CoinAnk data shows that in the past week, a total of 35,526.94 bitcoins have flowed out of major cryptocurrency exchanges, including 20,300.96 bitcoins from Binance, 6,494.83 bitcoins from Bitfinex, and 2,224.92 bitcoins from Coinbase. Currently, the cumulative balance of bitcoins on cryptocurrency exchanges is less than 2.3 million, setting a new historical low.
A large amount of BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges, perhaps because investors are less interested in short-term transactions and are looking for longer-term holdings, or because there is strong demand for purchases from wallet addresses outside the exchange, such as self-custody or cold wallets. The number of BTC currently held by CEXs has dropped to a record low, further confirming the shift in investor confidence. This change may have a variety of impacts on the market.
The reduction in BTC supply in the market may support its price, because the reduced circulation may increase the scarcity of the market, thereby driving up prices. Secondly, investors' increased preference for self-custody may prompt more funds to flow to other non-custodial solutions, further promoting the decentralization trend of the crypto market, which will continue to affect the market and make the cryptocurrency market more mature and stable.
Of course, any market change is accompanied by uncertainty. History can be used as a reference, but it may not follow the rules. Now a large part of it has flowed into ETFs, which are essentially traded in the secondary market. There are about 1 million BTC. If you add it up with the BTC in the crypto market, the number in the market has not actually decreased, and may even have increased. Let us explain the reasons in detail:
We cannot simply look at the BTC balance data of exchanges. The data on the exchanges is somewhat distorted. For example, the data of various countries' spot ETFs will not be counted in the exchange balance, but they are essentially traded in the secondary market. We roughly calculated that the current scale of BTC held by various spot ETFs is more than 1 million, just from one pool to another, and the BTC balance of exchanges has only fluctuated between 2.3 million and 3 million in the past two years. Sometimes more exchanges are counted, and sometimes fewer exchanges are counted because of some changes in the caliber. In the past, only the data of the top ten CEXs were counted, which was roughly around 1.8 million to 2 million. The volume of more than 1 million BTC spot ETFs placed in exchanges is equivalent to nearly half or more than one-third of the scale when compared by two calibers, so it is necessary to consider comprehensively.
Therefore, we believe that the amount of BTC circulating in the secondary market has not actually decreased. It has just been transferred to traditional financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange, Chicago Stock Exchange, and Nasdaq to trade ETF shares. Moreover, these transactions will directly affect BTC transactions, and will not cause a significant reduction in the actual circulation of BTC in the market.
5. BTC contract weighted funding rate is high
According to CoinAnk contract data, the BTC contract funding rate has maintained a positive value since September 14, that is, long positions with too many positions need to pay funding fees to short positions. Since November 11, there have been many cases of ultra-high funding rates, between 40,000th and 50,000th, indicating that longs have entered a FOMO mood and are rushing to buy and go long. During the same period, the BTC price has also been pushed up, from US$78,470 all the way up to nearly US$100,000.
6. BTC Contract Liquidation Map
According to CoinAnk contract data, if the BTC price rises to a record high of $99,588, short orders worth $1.017 billion will be liquidated;
If the BTC price falls below last week’s low of $95,330, $11.52 worth of long orders will be liquidated.
7. BTC market capitalization ratio correction and altcoin index rebound
According to CoinAnk data, BTC's market capitalization has stood above 60% several times recently. Last week, as BTC prices rose, its market share reached as high as 60.1%. During the weekend's BTC volatility and pullback, liquidity spread, and existing funds flowed back to altcoins. Altcoins also saw a rotation increase, and BTC's market capitalization share also fell.
According to CoinAnk's featured data, the current altcoin index is 48.38, running near the center axis of the index, which is in a relatively healthy state. The altcoin index has rebounded recently and has now hit a new high since early April this year. This shows that in this round of rebound, altcoins as a whole have not yet recovered the losses since the March highs. On the one hand, there is still potential room. On the other hand, attention should be paid to the rotation and speculation performance of currencies. Generally speaking, the rebound of altcoins is generally not sustainable, and if BTC pulls back, altcoins will easily fall back simultaneously.
8. Token large amount unlocking data forecast:
This week, SUI, OP and IMX will have a one-time large-scale token unlocking, with a total value of over US$300 million, including:
Sui (SUI) will unlock 64.19 million tokens at 8:00 on December 1, worth approximately $216 million, accounting for 2.26% of the circulation;
Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens at 8:00 on November 30, worth approximately $68.32 million, accounting for 2.5% of the circulation;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 on November 29, worth approximately $42.41 million, accounting for 1.47% of the circulation;
1inch (1INCH) will unlock 98.74 million tokens at 20:00 on November 30, worth approximately US$38.73 million, accounting for 7.72% of the circulation.
This week, pay attention to the negative effects of these tokens due to unlocking, avoid spot, and seek short-selling opportunities in contracts. Among them, 1INCH and SUI have a large proportion and scale of unlocked circulation, so pay more attention.
9. Hotspot Interpretation: Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s November Monetary Policy Meeting
On November 27 this week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its November monetary policy meeting. Currently, investors expect the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December to be slightly higher than 50%. This expectation is based on many factors. From the CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of rate cuts fluctuates in different periods but generally slightly exceeds the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged; in terms of economic data, the economy shows signs of slowing down while being resilient, making the expectation of rate cuts not too strong; in terms of inflation factors, inflation is not out of control and there is room for moderate rate cuts; officials' remarks also show a cautious attitude of supporting rate cuts, which together form the current expectations.
The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a significant impact on the crypto market. If interest rates are really cut in December, it will most likely be a positive factor for the crypto market. On the one hand, interest rate cuts mean that the cost of using funds in the market is reduced, which will prompt some funds to flow out of relatively low-yield areas such as traditional savings and bonds to find higher-yield investment channels. Cryptocurrency due to its unique financial attributes and potential The high-yield characteristics of cryptocurrencies are likely to attract the inflow of this part of funds, thereby driving up the price of cryptocurrencies and increasing the activity of the entire crypto market. On the other hand, interest rate cuts are often implemented in the context of economic slowdown pressure, which will cause certain fluctuations in market confidence in traditional financial assets. The crypto market is relatively independent of the traditional financial system, and some investors will It is regarded as an option to diversify risks and increase the allocation of crypto assets, prompting a wave of market trends in the crypto market. However, if the interest rate is not cut in the end, it may frustrate the sentiment of investors in the crypto market who have already had expectations. In the short term, there will be a price correction and a decrease in market activity. Investors will re-examine market risks and adjust investment strategies. The crypto market It may enter a period of wait-and-see and consolidation.
Text: laolibtc
CoinAnk Research
