Traders are extremely tense while maintaining a sense of relaxation.
Global investors are nervously waiting for Monday's opening, specifically the opening in China.
1. A-shares will respond to 'that news' after Friday's closing, and traders will use this to judge whether Friday's sudden drop was excessive or the beginning of a worrying trend.
2. Although it is the weekend, Wall Street has already begun 'digging into' the Treasury Secretary candidate nominated by Trump, Bessent, and a preliminary consensus has formed—consensus expectations often sway the market's first round of directional choices.
Below are the remarks we collected on key issues:
* Discussion on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts (opposing significant rate cuts): If you are worried about the integrity of this institution, you wouldn’t do that, especially not significant rate cuts.
* Discussion on the Federal Reserve Chairman (diminishing Powell's power): Nominate the Federal Reserve Chairman early, establish a shadow Federal Reserve Chairman. Based on the concept of forward guidance, no one will care about what Powell has to say anymore.
* Discussion on Trump's tariffs (support): Tariffs are a useful tool to achieve the President's diplomatic policy goals.
* Discussion on Trump 2.0: The market has clearly accepted Trump 2.0's economic vision. The expectations shown by the market are faster economic growth, lower volatility and inflation, and economic recovery.
* Discussion on dollar policy: Reserve currencies will rise or fall based on market conditions. This is a market reaction; he knows that tariffs will lead to a stronger dollar, so the combination of a weak dollar and tariffs is an economic anomaly.
It can be said that this will be a Secretary of the Treasury with a very deep understanding of financial markets and the macroeconomy. Especially the idea he proposed to Trump, 'nominate the Federal Reserve Chairman early, and no one will care what Powell says,' shows he knows how to influence market expectations. From now on, the market's focus on him may gradually surpass that of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Bessent loves to write articles and often accepts media interviews. Unsurprisingly, he will influence the financial market in this way—America will have both a Treasury Secretary and a Federal Reserve Chairman who can manage market expectations.
3. According to a survey we conducted on Saturday, investors have turned bullish on the U.S. stock market (59% bullish, 27% bearish), while their outlook on A-shares is slightly negative (40% bullish, 47% bearish).
The closing on next Monday is very important; every moment from the Asian trading session, to the European trading session, to the New York trading session is crucial.
