In a bear market, there may be some bubbles occasionally, but are you still alive?
If you don't store food for the winter in advance, if you don't go to a warm place in advance, you may be like a field mouse that has emerged from the icy land, struggling to get out of its nest full of spider silk, curled up and crawling forward, hoping to find even a little heat for yourself or your family, but all around you are bare straw, rotten leaves, frozen rivers, and animal skeletons that have been eaten clean by crows. When you are regretting this useless foraging trip, a biting cold wind blows, and before you have time to wrap yourself with your "clothes", a disaster with a sharp ice tip on a dry branch is coming towards you. You try your best to escape, but unfortunately your tail is smashed into pieces, and blood is flowing!
At this moment, you are completely desperate and wonder what is the point of living. But think about your wife and children and you have to be strong. But when will this winter bear market end?
As major domestic and international events gradually take place, the only thing left is the US midterm elections, but the basic pattern has been determined.
The epidemic, economic cycle, the international situation of de-globalization, monetary policy, private entrepreneurship and investment confidence, consumer purchasing power, global asset investment enthusiasm, etc., all determine that in the next six months, there will most likely be a rebound, and then the world will enter a longer economic recession together.
And where you are, those who understand will understand that we will enter a situation that is even more terrible than the economic depression. I'm sorry that I can't explain it directly.
What is the difference between a recession and a depression?
President Reagan said, if you lose your job, it's a recession, if I lose my job, it's a depression. Reagan, I should have added, if I was stoned to death instead of an assassination attempt, it would be a much more terrible situation.
The situation is so big, what should everyone do?
1. Rich people, Run, go to a place where spring comes. As for where to go, please listen to Mr. Ma Ji's "New Geographical Map", a place far away from the Eurasian continent. The family expenses should be prepared to reach 1.5 million RMB.
2. For those who are talented but poor, work hard and take the technical route. Australia, Canada and other countries welcome you.
3. People who have no money and no talent make money.
Don't invest in anything in China. After the loan suspension wave, local governments are waiting to use recent major events to create positive news, so that leeks can rush into the property and stock markets to fill the fiscal holes. Therefore, it would be a blessing if the banks don't go bankrupt.
Anyway, I think in troubled times, I am less worried if someone owes me money than if I owe them money. Of course, as a kind and ordinary person, I will not lend money to others, so my target is not ordinary people. What if the small bank incident in Henan turns into a large state-owned enterprise?
So I am now mortgaging my house and borrowing money. If the house price goes up, everyone will be happy. If it goes down, it will definitely fall to a point where even my own mother won’t recognize me. The law cannot hold everyone responsible. If I can’t pay it back, we’ll all be blamed together.
What are you going to do with the money you took out?
1. The dumbest way is to put it aside and save it for later use. But the dumbest way is better than saving it and waiting for it to evaporate one day.
If you don't have an investment direction, then spend slowly. It's not good to live off the savings, but you can still live off it for ten or eight years. If you invest blindly in a startup, believe me, you won't be able to find the next ice spike from the sky. Have you ever seen a family of field mice, young and old, strung on an ice sword? I have seen it.
So the dumbest method above is the dumbest in the smart sequence.
2. Next, buy gold. The price of gold is cheap now, and it will probably double in the future.
3. The best ones are those in the Bi circle, who follow the mainstream of fixed investment and bottom-fishing, and wait for the next 4-5 years to at least quintuple. Those who have experienced at least one bull market know that I am not talking nonsense.
Even if housing prices don't rise by then, there will always be another bull market in 10 years. You can take out a 10-year business loan and pay it back. The remaining money will be enough for you to achieve the highest level of financial freedom - nationality freedom.
4. Is there any better option? Probably: extending the investment period + increasing the principal.
Because the above fixed investment method is simple and effective, but the problem is that no one knows whether the US economy will really enter a depression in the future, and what ruthless tricks the Goose Government will play. Of course, it will drop HE bombs. Just pretend that I didn't say anything above, and there is no hope for mankind.
Under normal circumstances, the world is in turmoil. This time, we must not stick to the old ways and wait for a bull market every four years. It may happen, or it may not.
The plan I personally adopted is that there should be a round of bottom fishing at the end of 2022. I will invest 25% of the principal and sell 80% of it during the small peak in the spring of 2023. In this way, only 5% of my principal will be used. At the beginning of 2024, I will start to implement the fixed investment plan, which will last for half a year and will take out 60% of the total principal. At this time, I still have 35% of the principal. If the bull market does not come, I will continue to wait for the next cycle of fixed investment. If the bull market comes directly, I will buy on the right side, or invest in some star Bi species or mining industries that will be very good at that time.
The above is to consider what if there is no bull market for a long time? After all, the bull market of the US stock market may not be quiet until the end of 2023 because the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Then it may fall into a long bear market. This is even more true for the bi circle. All the bullets have been fired. If you fire too early and wait too long, you may not be able to bear it.
The dog dealer likes to play panic cleaning the most, creating huge panic, and making you hand over your chips when you need money the most, and then he absorbs the chips and leaves.
Therefore, in addition to investing in a rhythmic manner and not being greedy and trying to get everything done all at once, we also have to figure out ways to fight the severe bear market in order to achieve safe and stable appreciation of our principal.
In fact, even in the bear market of the Bitcoin circle, it is difficult to find a good way to make money. Speculating on Bitcoin, mining, playing private equity, selling courses and services are either very risky or not enough to make ends meet. Chasing new public chains, building the metaverse, and the World Cup hot spot Bitcoin are likely to get you stuck.
Is there any other way to survive? I have come up with the following four suggestions:
1. Practice technical analysis for half a year, master a trading system with a high winning rate, survive in the market, and achieve an annual capital appreciation target of 25%-50%. This is the most difficult and only people at the top of the pyramid can achieve it. More people die on the journey of learning.
2. Find a reliable and large-scale company, manage assets, and choose a risk-free arbitrage strategy. It is best to obtain a principal protection commitment, with an annual principal appreciation target of 8%-10%. This is a good way to reap the benefits, but the difficulty is to find a reliable one.
3. The only two projects in the mining circle that can pay back within 2 years and can generate positive returns every day are BTC and FIL. ETH can never go back. It will take 1-2 years for BEAM, AE, CFX, ETC, SERO, RVN and other graphics cards to produce enough electricity again. The market will pick up again in 1-2 years. HNT can pay back in 2 years, and the operation and maintenance cost is low, but if it is blacklisted, it will be a pain in the ass. CCN and ALEO cannot be sold even if they are mined now. XX network is still waiting for spring. CRU, EPK, PHA and other mines based on TEE technology have to wait for the heat to rekindle and then be enough to start the machine, but the road to pay back is long. Whether CHIA can survive again depends on luck. In the final analysis, it can only be BTC and FIL.
If you want to buy BTC, you must buy one with high computing power. Now 110T, 140T and even 200T are available. One machine is equivalent to the computing power of two machines, but only consumes the electricity of one machine.
If you want to buy FIL, you should buy 10 times the computing power. Although 1 times the computing power can be used to start the machine now, the profit of 10 times the computing power is dregs compared with the past. Moreover, although the proportion of DC (10 times the effective computing power) is gradually expanding, the profit of the original traditional 1 times computing power will drop sharply, and may not even be enough to start the machine. I will talk about 10 times the effective computing power in detail when I have the chance.
This method is the most worry-free and does not even involve any quantitative risk.
4. You may question: The above methods all require capital, but now I have no capital and no income, what should I do?
If you have talents related to the above methods, you can also contribute.
For example, those who are good at speaking can do quantitative or mining machine sales; those who have strong execution ability can join immigration agencies, and they are willing to learn and work hard. This industry will be one of the few industries that will be okay in the next few years; those who can learn to write can develop self-media, record investment and financial learning experience, and earn traffic fees on YOUTUBE. Domestic media is no longer interesting, and the income is low. The advertising fee for YOUTUBE financial ads can earn $60 for 1,000 views. If you publish 5 posts a week and 20 posts a month, that is $1,200. You can earn tens of thousands of dollars a month as a part-time worker, and you can also develop fans. Of course, this is a relatively beautiful small goal, but how do you know that you can't do it?
And you can't do any of the above, and you are even in debt! ? You can only wish for a peaceful life, after all, other ways to make a lot of money are written in the criminal law.
Ordinary people like us can only follow Fisher's book "The Road to Financial Freedom", cut up all credit cards, stop overdrafts, limit monthly spending, make a monthly repayment plan and strictly implement it; at the same time, we must work hard to increase our income in ordinary jobs, give 110% effort every day, and even figure out what skills we have that can be used without making money, and get more part-time jobs to earn more income. Maybe we can find ways to invest in the gaps of the crisis.
In a bear market, if you are told to get rich overnight, earn ten times the profit, or get your money back in three months, then that is someone trying to take advantage of your desperation. It is a shameless trick written in the criminal law. Family members, don’t believe it. By the way, if someone calls you “family” but you have not known them for many years, treat them as scammers.
Although in troubled times, a good death is worse than a miserable life, you can't let scammers deprive you of your right to live.
