Bitcoin continues to move towards the $100,000 price mark, remaining in the spotlight of investors. This week, the BlackRock IBIT fund became one of the most popular assets among exchange-traded funds, and the trading volume of cryptocurrency-related instruments such as MicroStrategy shares (MSTR) reached record levels. Nevertheless, behind the positive dynamics there are risks that could change the situation in the coming weeks. This was stated by Blofin Academy researchers.
According to them, high financing costs remain one of the main problems. Rising repo rates and an increase in the share of positions opened through sponsored repos create additional risks. At the end of November, their rate reached 5.6%, which is significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's figures. Such dynamics may become an obstacle to the continuation of the current rally in the markets.
"The situation is even more difficult for altcoins. The increase in financing through derivatives is accompanied by an increase in costs for investors. For example, for ethereum ($ETH
), annual financing costs have already exceeded 40%, which makes such investments less sustainable. Bitcoin remains less susceptible to these factors due to greater stability in the spot market," the experts noted.
On a global level, rising U.S. bond yields and a strengthening dollar are also putting pressure on cryptocurrencies. The dollar index (DXY) has peaked in the last 12 months, and an increase in Treasury bond yields reduces the cost of collateral for repo transactions, which further increases financing costs.
The options market data also indicates a growing risk of volatility. Most large options expire in December, which means that price support due to hedging by market makers may disappear early next year. Despite the positive mood in the market, experts warn that the approaching psychological barrier of $100,000 may become a short-term peak. Combined with the high level of risks and seasonal factors, such as a decrease in activity during the Christmas holidays, this increases the likelihood of a correction in the coming weeks.