Author: DC is greater than C
This article compares and analyzes the trends and launch times of BTC, ETH, SOL, and altcoin seasons in the previous bull markets of 2021, 2023, and 2024, as well as a summary of the current and future bull market altcoin trends. The full text is over 3,000 words and requires a lot of patience to read, but you can scroll to the bottom to see the conclusion. I believe you will gain a lot after reading it all. Thank you everyone.
Having experienced the bull and bear cycles and witnessed the ups and downs of many tracks, the crypto market is like a changing stage, full of infinite possibilities. Here, knowledge iteration is endless, and only by continuous learning can we keep up with the market rhythm and gain wealth within the scope of cognition. As the saying goes, "One day in the cryptocurrency world is like one year in the human world", this rapid change is precisely the unique charm of the crypto market. The views are for reference only. If you have different opinions, you are welcome to discuss and exchange. Thank you (all K-line trends are in weekly units)
From the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021519
As shown in the figure:
The first wave: 2020.10.5-2020.12.21: BTC first pulled up sharply, and ETH fluctuated upward. At this stage, ETH was really weak from the K-line;
The second wave: 2020.12.28-2021.2.22: BTC pulls up and oscillates with a pullback, while ETH starts to pull up sharply and oscillates slightly;
The third wave: 2021.3.1-2021.5.19: BTC fluctuates at a high level, and ETH starts a major uptrend until 519, when they fall together to clean up the market;
BTC surged in the early stage, and ETH surged in the middle and late stages. Let’s take a look at the trend of each track of the altcoin.
BNB, MX, HT and other platform coins: A major uptrend started on February 1, 2021, and the price fluctuated and rose in the early stage. Meme track: Doge started a major uptrend at the end of the first wave, and then the second wave. SHIB has been fluctuating and washing since it landed on Uniswap in August 2020. It officially started the main uptrend in January 2021 until the arrival of 519;
Public chain track: SOL, AVAX, CHR, ADA, DOT, ATOM, FTM, ENJ, VET, etc. are referenced, all of which are the second wave of the main uptrend started on December 28, 2020. THETA, NEAR, INJ are the first wave of the middle and late stages;
Game and Metaverse Track: Refer to AXS, MANA, SAND, etc. The first wave fluctuated upward, and the second wave started a substantial upward trend;
DEFI: Refer to UNI, SUSHI, MKR, 1INCH, ALPHA, COMP, etc., all of which are in the second wave, and only a few of them are in the first wave of fluctuations and rise;
Other tracks: For example, FIL, which was very popular at the time, and the old currency ETC both started the main upward trend in the third wave;
summary
In this wave of main rising market, BTC rose first, and even though it hit new highs again and again, ETH still fluctuated and rose. It was not until the middle and late stages that ETH really caught up with the rise, and then started the main rising waves of various tracks in the cottage industry. The tracks listed here are not complete. After all, the secondary rise of the main tracks is very good, and there are many opportunities to make money, especially MEME, L1, games, etc.
Note: Most of the projects here are listed on Binance in 2019-2020. For example, the Metaverse and games that were hyped in 2021 were basically listed on Binance in 2020, which is enough to prove Binance's grasp of new market narratives and new tracks. As for the public chain, this has always been a popular narrative. Meme is the rise of Dex in 2020. Coupled with Musk's calls for DOGE and SHIB, MEME has gradually become popular.
The second major uptrend in 2021: July 2021 to the end of 2021
As can be seen from the figure, from July to November 2021, the main rising trend of BTC and ETH almost overlapped and rose together. As for the growth of the cottage mentioned above, looking at the trend of each track of the cottage, the friends who have experienced it should still remember it clearly.
MEME track: Although DOGE did not rise significantly in the second half of the year, SHIB rose tenfold after 519, and many good projects emerged in the Meme track, such as BABYDOGE, FLOKI, etc.
Public chain track: AVAX, SOL, CHR, ENJ, ADA, FTM, etc. all reached new heights in the second half of the year;
Gaming and Metaverse: AXS, SAND, MANA, RACA, etc. have all reached new heights;
DEFI track: It basically went silent in the second half of the year, with no new hype to push it up;
Other tracks: such as FIL, old coins ETC, BCH, etc., have no new hype and pull. So far, the whole 2021 has ended;
Summary of the 2021 bull market:
Macroeconomic background: After the 2020 election, the entire 2021 was a period of monetary easing. Because of the epidemic, this was the largest monetary easing by the Federal Reserve since 2008. In such a context of macroeconomic easing and crazy liquidity, BTC increased nearly 7 times from $10,000 in October 2020 to $69,000, and ETH increased more than 14 times from $340 in October to $4,870.
As for the copycat stocks, there really was a general increase in their prices. In the first half of 2021, that is, before May 19, there was indeed a general increase in their prices. However, in the second half of the year, many tracks went silent and began to directly harvest market liquidity.
PS: It depends on how you define this bull market, 5-10 times and more than 10 times increase. If so, the general increase rate is about 70% or more. I'm sure many friends will say that in a bull market, you can make 10 times? That's too little. OK, then define more than 30 times as a general increase in the mountains, then I can tell you clearly that the general increase rate is at most 20%.
Only public chains, games, metaverse, and memes are always hyped. Then there are DEFI, and there are actually many less popular tracks that I haven’t listed, such as music, fans, infrastructure, etc. Basically, they are at their peak or playing dead.
Moreover, the popular projects such as public chain, game, metaverse, meme, etc. were basically launched in the secondary market in 2019-2020, especially the projects launched on Binance in 2020, whether it is direct listing or IEO. So are the projects on Binance that will be launched in 2022-24 worth paying attention to? Don't worry, I will mention it later.
As for the initial public offering and secondary listing in the 21st year of the bull market, no matter whether it was a project of a large or small exchange, I would like to ask how many of them have survived to this day? Do you guys still remember them? Those who remember are probably trapped.
The third major uptrend from October 2023 to March 2024
As shown in the figure: From the figure, we can see that from October 2023 to March 2024, the main rising trend of BTC and ETH almost overlapped and rose together. What about the copycat? After the bear market in 2022, new hot track projects were born, such as AI, ETH's L2, LI's modular blockchain, etc., while the heat of the metaverse has dissipated.
Let’s take a look at the situation of public chain, L2, AI, game, and Meme. If we talk about the ranking of projects in the tracks with high growth rates, public chain=Meme>AI>Game.
Old blockchains: ETH, SOL, INJ, and CKB are not to be mentioned;
New public chains: SEI, TIA, SUI, TAO, NTRN, 5-10 times;
Meme: ORDI and SATS (BRC20 Meme), PEPE, WIF, BOME, BONK, FLOKI, 5-10 times and above;
AI: ARKM, WLD (related to AI, so let’s put them in AI for now);
5-10 times Games: PIXEL, PORTAL, XAI, ACE, etc., 50%-2 times;
Other tracks such as DEFI and infrastructure: PENDEL and ID, 5-10 times;
ETH's L2: ARB, OP, STRK, have increased but not much, only METIS is not bad, with a 10-fold increase;
Except for the other project tracks mentioned above, the increase is not very much, and it is not a hyped popular narrative track.
summary
Macro background: After experiencing the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the interest rate hike was suspended in September 2023, coupled with the hype, approval and trading of BTC spot ETF.
The previous release of liquidity is to expand the balance sheet, but at this time point, the balance sheet is shrinking. Naturally, the market liquidity is limited, and the limited funds are concentrated in the main track, which cannot be compared with 2021. Therefore, it is almost difficult for the entire track of copycats to rise. The enduring hype narrative is still the public chain and MEME. As for games, I personally think that the main reason is the limited market liquidity, and the pull of SOL and the rise of Meme on SOL have taken away too much market liquidity.
Do you remember what I said before? The projects on Binance that will be listed on the secondary market in 2022-2024 are worth paying attention to. Except for the old blockchain mentioned above, the projects on other tracks are basically listed on the secondary market in 2022-2023. So we have to grasp this trading experience and see if it will continue to come true later.
The market situation from October 2024 to now (sharing the current market situation is also a personal summary of the overall background, from BTC, ETH, SOL to the various tracks of Shanzhai)
I won’t post the charts for the trends of BTC and ETH, but you guys are also aware of the growth of the copycat projects in various tracks.
The only one that has taken off and soared so far is MEME. Even among L1, only sol, sui and the old chain are doing well, while the others are playing dead. The good thing is that today, right now, when I am posting this article, ETH seems to be starting to gain momentum.
Summarize
Macroeconomic background: This round of interest rate cuts will start in September 2024. With Trump, the new US president who is friendly to cryptocurrencies, the balance sheet reduction may be coming to an end in Q1 next year, plus spot ETFs. Although there is no water release yet, it has finally moved from tightening to easing. The new four years are very worth looking forward to.
The first wave is from now to Q1 next year, and then we will see if there will be a US economic recession or other black swans. If so, it will be another 312, and then it will be a similar situation in 2020-21. I will share the details at that time.
If the US economy had not experienced a recession and a soft landing, there would have been no 312, and the music and dance would have continued.
BTC, SOL, BNB, and the new public chain SUI have risen, driving the growth of the MEME track. Other tracks are not very active. As we analyzed earlier, they need the strength of ETH. Coincidentally, ETH is currently exerting its strength and seems to have started the second wave. (As of the time of posting, the market reaction is what I said before, L1 is also exploding, this is an enduring hype narrative)
Since ETH has started its second wave of growth, given the general background, it is very likely that the entire track of the altcoin market will see a general rise. However, if you want to see a specific track doing well, then it is worth choosing: new old blockchains, MEME, L2 on ETH, and AI-related projects (such as AI+MEME). As for games, it is not that I will not choose them, but they may be put at the back of my mind.
What the crypto market is hyping will often eventually be reflected in specific currencies. So how do we find and judge the next track for crypto market hype? We can look at the projects launched on Binance, the U.S. macro situation, and reports from major U.S. media.
From 2022 to now, the most launched projects on Binance are public chains, Meme, L2, games, AI, DEFI (I don’t want to write about this track, what’s the matter? If you want to get rich quickly, Meme and public chains are not enough to play with), RWA and DEPIN (there are signs). As for other tracks, the same thing applies. If you want to get rich quickly, Meme, L1, games, and AI are not enough for you to seize the opportunity.
When it comes to grasping new market narratives and new tracks, Binance is the industry's weather vane. Coupled with Binance's liquidity, this cannot be questioned.
More important is the information from the United States. Apart from anything else, the increase in DOGE and PNUT speaks for itself. So we must pay attention. As for SOL, don’t forget that this is a project made by the US’s awesome capital investment and market makers. In fact, SUI, APT, OMNI, ALT, etc. are all these.
The timing and coin selection have been noted. It is not difficult to get on the train, but how about getting off? Any project should be able to calculate the possible valuation based on the market background, the track it belongs to, the exchange it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX, etc.), the market maker it belongs to (the nature of the market maker), the ceiling of the same track, the narrative prospects of the track, etc. No project can always pull the market up, there will always be a wash, even for BTC. The market is anti-human, and emotional FOMO is not good, very bad.
Thanks, DYOR.
Written at the end
The above non-investment advice is based on the experience of the previous bull market, as well as the grasp of market changes. Only by continuously learning and improving your understanding of the market can you keep up with the market rhythm and gain wealth within your cognitive scope. Market liquidity, changes in market makers, changes in project narratives, and especially market hype expectations, etc., all require continuous learning and improvement. This market changes too fast.
Friends need to improve their understanding of the market and choose to grasp it. Luck can only win temporarily, strength can last, and wealth is a reward for cognition.
I hope we can all have a firm grasp of this round. Thank you everyone.
