We must admit that the duration and extent of this decoupling between BTC and altcoins have far exceeded historical cases.
The Bitcoin bloodsucking trend is in a self-reinforcing stage; previously, it was only sucking altcoins, but in the past two days, it has started to suck meme coins on-chain. I observed this morning that the market sentiment on Twitter has turned quite bad, with strong voices of crypto nihilism and BTC maximalism.
There are quite a few respected traders and OGs who even lament that 'the altcoin season is over.'
From the historical data presented by Dune's Alts Buy Signal chart, there are 4 patterns between BTC and altcoins:
Pattern 1: When BTC rises and altcoins rise, both BTC and altcoins are in an upward trend, while BTC.D (BTC market cap share) may fluctuate or decline. This is a prosperous period of a bull market.
This is the time to go long. If altcoins are performing stronger than BTC, you can increase your position. Conversely, caution is needed.
Pattern 2: When BTC falls and altcoins fall, both BTC and altcoins are in a downward trend.
This is the time to reduce risk, focusing more on purchasing stablecoins and blue-chip tokens. The only time worth considering shorting. For long-term trend traders, it is advisable to wait for a trend reversal. For long-term holders, it is recommended to DCA or buy the dip.
Pattern 3: When BTC falls and altcoins rise, this pattern rarely occurs. When BTC is volatile and does not show aggressive declines, it may indicate a short-term altcoin season. Consider increasing risk exposure.
Pattern 4: When BTC rises and altcoins fall, BTC outperforms the market in an upward trend, and BTC.D continues to reach new highs. This pattern usually occurs before a halving or at the beginning stage of a bull market.
At this stage, it is advisable to take the opportunity to accumulate altcoins in anticipation of an explosion.
Summarize historical patterns.
It seems we are currently in the state of Pattern 4, but we must admit that the duration and extent of this decoupling between BTC and altcoins have far exceeded historical cases.
Additionally, after the approval of the BTC spot ETF, the market is concerned that the funding configuration for crypto assets will change, and MSTR became the hottest trade in US stocks yesterday, seemingly validating this concern as a reality, making doubts about the altcoin season more persuasive.
But as an eternal crypto optimist, I can still see 'disruptive innovation' in rapid iteration in areas like chain abstraction, PayFi, Web3 AI Agent, and the Bitcoin ecosystem, and feel the 'exponential growth' in the realm of meme coins and consumer chains. At this time, discussing the 'end of altcoins' in my eyes is an irrational emotional outburst. If such a market makes you feel anxious and lost, it might be worth spending some time observing the altcoin projects that are actively working.
