But the heart that investors have been holding onto has finally settled, and taking a breather is not necessarily a bad thing.
The dollar, gold, crude oil, and bitcoin all tested this week's highs in the morning, and Asian stock markets rose driven by overnight U.S. stocks, while A-shares saw a decline.
1. There is no obvious reason for the decline in A-shares, which indicates that the upcoming trend is highly uncertain, with stimulus measures and Trump's tariffs likely to influence market movements. There may not be any decisive good news from now until the important meetings in December, and overseas news will play a key role.
2. This week seems to be a week lacking trading clues, but that is not the case.
Trump's nomination for Secretary of Commerce was announced, and it was not as extreme as imagined (Lighthizer did not get the position). This is good news for the market, initially confirming that Trump's trade agenda is not as extreme as thought (moderates will balance the views of trade hawks)—Trump may be sending a friendly signal to the financial markets.
The next focus is whether Lighthizer will be given a new mandate. If Lighthizer is sidelined, it would be good news for Chinese assets and even the global market. Once the market can finally confirm that Lighthizer is excluded from Trump's cabinet, the global market may welcome a wave of celebration. Additionally, the choice of U.S. Treasury Secretary is also receiving high attention, and there are already many rumors on Wall Street.
3. For the global market, the biggest risk is a breakthrough rise in the U.S. dollar index, reaching a nearly two-year high. U.S. Treasury yields also need attention; if the 10-year Treasury yield breaks above 4.5%, the stock market may face pressure and lead to a short-term pullback.
Although Trump has not appeared, the market is filled with his legends. The biggest fear among people is knowing very little about Trump's economic agenda.