Master Chen discusses hot topics:
The news that Gensler will resign as SEC Chairman on January 20 next year feels like the mountain pressing down on the crypto industry is finally going to move. For more than two years, this big brother has been performing 'high-pressure regulatory tactics'.
Now that the news of his resignation has come out, the entire crypto circle is probably breathing a sigh of relief, as if seeing the first ray of sunshine in the crypto spring. In the coming years, can we really welcome an industry environment of 'friendly innovation'? Don't get too excited; we still need to see who the successor will be.
Yesterday at noon, Master Chen posted a sentence in the Moments: If it breaks 100K tonight, count me as wrong. But as of now, it still hasn't broken through. But today is different; this is like an arrow on the string that must be released!
Regarding the current market situation, we need to talk about human nature. First of all, friends holding Bitcoin spot positions are probably exhausted from psychological games. Should they sell? What if it skyrockets? If they don’t sell, will it go up and then come down, leaving them with nothing?
For this kind of dilemma, Master Chen has a simple understanding: Bitcoin will not rocket up with one step on the gas, nor will it slam the brakes and free fall. After all, it is the gold of the industry. Currently, there are two possibilities:
After the popularization of ETFs, circulation decreases, and after integrating into traditional finance, a bulldozer-like steady long bull — a slow bull is the real bull.
The old routine is to form an M-top and create a wave market, but the logic of the bull market hasn't changed: a bull market doesn't call a top, and a bull market doesn't short. If you are really afraid of missing out, you can sell at a slightly higher right shoulder, leaving some margin.
So far today, Bitcoin has risen above 99K (is the dream within reach?), the pullback trend is relatively independent but still somewhat related to US stocks. The US dollar index is also quite strong, reaching a new high since last October, giving the market a taste of the 'Trump bull market'.
This logic pulls, and Bitcoin, as a safe-haven asset, naturally follows. Trump has also praised the crypto industry, so the market speculation cycle will definitely not stop. Ethereum continues to attract funds; after right-side pullbacks, it's a simple and straightforward operational logic.
Additionally, continuing from yesterday, Master Chen mentioned altcoins and Ethereum. What is the core reason for altcoins not rising? Ethereum did not rise significantly along with Bitcoin. It is the engine of altcoins; if it doesn't lead, who can start?
Ethereum has recently been stuck in an awkward position. Some fans asked Master Chen: Will it surge to 2800? Honestly, I don't know. But with market sentiment so low, if any good news pops up, Ethereum will directly lead a group of altcoin traders to perform a grand show.
However, we can't be too confident. After all, the crypto market is deep enough that even dragons need their own diving gear. To sum it up: Chinese people believe in '70% effort, 30% fate'.
Finally, let's talk about the most concerning topic: Bitcoin at 100K. This question is actually very simple, so simple that it only requires one logic: even if the main force is poor, they won’t miss out on these 600 points.
So for this market, we can just sit back and watch. Don’t rush to steal the spotlight; watch how the main force creates the script, and then quietly plan your short-term trading strategy.
Master Chen sees the trend:
With Gary Gensler (SEC Chairman), who has always held an antagonistic attitude toward cryptocurrencies, announcing his resignation, Bitcoin has shown a rebound trend again. From the current trend, as long as we maintain the current rebound pace, reaching 100,000 is entirely possible, so we can continue to hold a rebound view.
However, according to on-chain data, when the price approaches historical highs, the following indicators have started to release warning signals:
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio)
Fear and Greed Index
New fund inflow volume
Activity of long-dormant tokens
Capital flow between exchanges
These signals are not suggesting that a crash is imminent, but rather reminding investors to be aware of potential short-term pullbacks that may occur at high levels, requiring vigilance.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 100000
Second resistance level: 98900
Support level reference:
First support level: 98100
Second support level: 97700
Today's advice:
In the current upward trend, Master Chen does not recommend waiting for a large pullback, but rather it is more appropriate to layout within a small pullback range.
Due to the strong rebound in Bitcoin, the support levels are closely distributed. As long as Bitcoin holds the 98K support, we maintain the rebound view while closely monitoring the 20-day moving average as a reference.
Even if the first support level is broken, as long as it remains within the upper box range, 97.7K can be set as a key support and viewed as a short-term entry opportunity. If the price rebounds again and breaks through the resistance level, that resistance can be turned into a new support level for trading operations.
Master Chen personally expects that Bitcoin will continue to rebound to around 100,000 after the US stock market opens tonight, but be aware that the psychological resistance level of 100,000 may lead to a short-term pullback, adjusting positions and trading strategies accordingly.
11.22 Master Chen's wave pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: Light position long near 97700. If it pulls back to around 96700, go long directly. Target 98900-100000.
Short entry reference: Don't think about it for now.
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