Source: Yang Gesixue
Author: Yang Ge Yang Ge Gary
After Trump's victory, global social relations and financial assets experienced drastic stress fluctuations, and the butterfly effect affected many aspects. On the surface, Bitcoin and emerging assets soared, gold plummeted, the US dollar regained some control over assets, the United States established a new leadership team and even set up a D.O.G.E. department, global Degen and innovators regained confidence, Devcon reflected an indescribable carnival in the chaotic city of Cyberpunk, and other types of conflicts in civilizations seemed to have taken a breath of relief and temporarily rested for a round; in essence, the global pattern is undergoing rapid changes, and the expectations of development are mixed with completely different concepts. A tsunami of drastic changes in global production relations is about to come. Under the trend of increasing entropy, the establishment of the new era has gradually broken through the critical point in the chaos.
In the days after Trump won the election, many friends asked a question: Why did the US stock market and the Crypto Market rise at the same time? Does Trump represent more centralization or decentralization? I made the following reply online:
After Trump and Musk won the election, the interests of the left wing of the Nolan Curve were curbed. The extreme personal freedom and blue shift in recent years lost their legitimacy and were replaced by the right-wing forces of economic freedom. The feedback in the past two days also proved that the red shift proposition did bring hope of breaking the temporary predicament.
Many friends have asked why bitcoin and the increasingly centralized United States represent opposite concepts of centralization and decentralization, and why assets have risen in the past two days. The reason is clear: this is a breakthrough into temporary pre-war economic freedom after breaking the constraints of left-wing dogmatic freedom.
This involves several issues, and also leads to more fundamental problems:
The contradictory nature of the qualitative change in the alternation of positions between the two parties in the United States
The replacement of faith in the anchors of the three generations of financial systems
The historical significance and accompanying issues of Bitcoin and Crypto
Do Trump and Musk represent the position and interests of the Crypto financial system?
The rise of the younger generation and the inevitability, problems and twists and turns of the establishment of a new production relations system
Social collective wisdom is helping to build a new system of production relations in a very special decentralized way
The current global world's major and minor contradictions and the chaotic cycle brought about by uncertainty
I. The contradictory nature of the qualitative change in the alternation of positions between the two parties in the United States
The positions and advocacy of the two major parties in the United States represent different freedoms on both sides of the Nolan curve. The left wing of the Democratic Party and the blue wing represent individual freedom, which advocates conditional equal freedom; the right wing of the Republican Party and the red wing represent economic freedom, which advocates unconditional freedom of competition and is closer to the ideas of Social Darwinism. Since Social Darwinism has relatively extreme and easily attacked contradictions in the management of Eastern and Western civilizations in peacetime, it is not advocated by many countries, including the United States; on the contrary, the individual freedom advocated by the Democratic Party meets both the needs of individual survival and the needs of managers for stable development in a peaceful historical stage, and has become a relatively dominant culture in the United States in the past 20 years.
However, in the process of global evolution and development in recent years, as the industries of the previous cycle, mainly the computer and Internet industries, gradually matured, the liberal environment gradually transitioned to practical utilitarianism, and then continued to evolve into collective power (Note 1), which is reflected in corporate monopolies around the world, fierce competition, soaring prices, employment involution, and complex and costly entry barriers. Under the needs of finance and politics, the individual freedom system has gradually become rigid and developed in the direction of extreme personal freedom. Many people believe that hundreds of gender identities, the excessive popularity of marijuana, and the increasing inflation and pressure of capital competition involution are all extreme products of excessive development of the right wing. For example, Musk, a representative of the left-wing innovative entrepreneurs, was excluded from the white list of new energy vehicles by the Democratic Party because of his opposition to the establishment of a union, and this escalated to NASA's support for SpaceX's competitors. In addition, his eldest son's sex reassignment surgery became the last straw that broke the camel's back, causing the left-wing value confrontation represented by the two parties to finally erupt completely. The contradictory nature of the qualitative change in the alternating positions of the two parties in the United States actually represents the contradiction between the rigid and excessive left-wing individual liberal management method represented by the Democratic Party in the previous historical stage, which is in line with the interests of the Federal Reserve, and the right-wing economic liberal management method represented by the radical breakthrough new capital establishment represented by the emerging Republican upstarts. The results of the general election in November 2024 show that the latter's voice finally occupied the dominant potential, breaking the roof and breaking the power of the conservative left, temporarily allowing history to evolve towards the right-wing blue shift.
This kind of evolution usually has breakthrough dividends only in a short period of time. When such a node appears in history, it usually does not transition to the next major development stage peacefully. Generally, there are two results: one is to be strongly counterattacked by the other party and fall into a more chaotic situation, and the other is that the breakthrough forces must form more concentrated power or implement more extreme strategies in order to consolidate this change and new trend, leading to an opposite extreme. Whether the combination of Trump and Musk is more similar to Caesar and Octavian, or whether it is a real Lincoln in the digital information age, it is difficult to draw a conclusion in 2024, or it is a superposition state.
II. The replacement of faith in the anchors of the three generations of financial systems
Within a few days after Trump's victory, the anchors of the three generations of financial systems: gold, the US dollar, and Bitcoin underwent rapid and drastic changes. It can be said that the rapid response speed of market intelligence (Market Swarm AI) still exceeds the imagination of each of us.
This is very simple and clear. Gold represents the historical financial credit system of the gold standard, the US dollar represents the credit system of financial institutions based on the US dollar since the Bretton Woods rule, and Bitcoin represents the decentralized new digital financial credit system built by decentralized blockchain outside the existing centralized financial institutions, driven by the interests of non-central groups, and not yet complete but representing the future digital information society. In the few years before Trump's victory, these three systems were a temporary equilibrium formed by continuously strengthening gold, followed by the US dollar, and Bitcoin was weak. From the data, from 2023 to November 2024, gold soared from less than 2,000 to 2,800, while the global asset influence of the US dollar fell by 3% year-on-year, and Bitcoin continued to lack momentum after the halving. The passage of ETFs has brought about the fact that the concentration of the Crypto industry has increased, innovation has decreased, and the total Market Cap has declined.
Just one week after Trump won the election, the value and control of the above three anchor assets quickly reversed and adjusted significantly, which can be reflected not only from their own prices, but also from the correlation and forward-looking increase and decrease between them and other cross-class assets (Note 2). The three anchor assets represent the positions of the three generations of financial systems, that is, they represent different consensuses in different historical time periods. The time of gold is from BC600 to AD1944, and the time of the US dollar is from AD1944 to the present. The continuous breakthrough of Bitcoin after this election indicates that the decentralized new financial value system that the world is constantly exploring in the mid-term of the digital information age is further growing. As of mid-November 2024, the total market Cap of Crypto is close to 3.2T, of which Bitcoin itself is close to 1.9T, less than double the distance from Nvidia's 3.5T.
III. The historical significance and accompanying issues of Bitcoin and Crypto
The consensus on the historical significance of Bitcoin and Crypto representing the decentralized management system of smart contracts in the future society is constantly increasing, especially after Trump's victory in the election, there is a trend of quantitative change turning into qualitative change.
In his speech in Nashville in July 2024, Trump mentioned the actions he would take if elected:
1. Fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman;
2. Establish a strategic national Bitcoin reserve for the U.S. government;
3. The U.S. government will retain 100% of the Bitcoin it owns;
4. Guarantee that the United States will not have a CBDC during his tenure;
5. End the anti-cryptocurrency campaign of the Biden and Harris administration and improve the environment for cryptocurrency innovation;
6. Make Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies soar like never before;
7. Support the freedom and sovereign independence represented by Bitcoin, and ensure that it is not subject to coercion and control by the US government.
Judging from the short-term reality after Trump's victory in November 2024, in addition to the soaring prices of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies, there are indeed signs that the other points in the checklist are being implemented one by one. This accelerated process will undoubtedly bring about a large number of changes in the interest structure, credit basis, market transactions, and the nature of social production relations. It can be said that Trump and Musk are constantly pushing history to make node changes in the United States and even the world.
Although the logic of the exponential curve development caused by the theory of the approaching singularity is not difficult to understand, the rapid node changes, especially those involving important interests and production relations management, are bound to cause contradictions and backlashes at all levels. The temporary stable eye of the typhoon at the end of 2024 will be short-lived. A large number of power subjects and interest organizations are more unprepared to adjust and face greater uncertainty and chaos at this stage. Although the future financial and social systems depicted by Bitcoin and Crypto have a clear and strong orthodoxy in their future positions, the accompanying problems and contradictions are too many to be digested instantly at this historical stage. As Su Shi of the Northern Song Dynasty in China said to Wang Anshi in his later years, Wang Anshi’s advocacy of joint reforms with Song Huizong (Note 3) is not that others do not understand more advanced, but that too many interest structures are affected and cannot be supported. It is obvious that the joint action of Trump and Musk this time is much more radical than the joint action of Song Huizong and Wang Anshi, and the accompanying problems and consequences will be more intense. The world is facing greater uncertainty and chaos.
There are too many problems associated with the strong rise of Bitcoin and Crypto after Trump's victory. Here are just a few of them:
1. It will fundamentally affect and change the payment settlement, transaction scenarios, asset management, credit supervision and even the definition and operation methods of the economic and value system in the United States and the world;
2. It is in fundamental conflict with the current and planned economic and fiscal policies of countries around the world, and the strategies for managing social production as a result;
3. The above two points lead to different decision-making and solutions in different countries when facing problems, which in turn leads to the escalation of the conflict of civilizations (Note 4) and further polarization of the world with contrasting views on democracy and collective ideals.
IV. Do Trump and Musk represent the position and interests of the Crypto financial system?
Trump and Musk's current positions are in a complex superposition state, and their essential positions cannot be directly determined from the surface.
As for Trump and Musk themselves, although both have characteristics that are consistent with the right-wing position of achieving self-realization under the advocacy of economic freedom, Trump has relatively more realistic tendencies and is characterized by going with the flow when there are tools and trends in the development process.
Therefore, facing the position and interests of the future world finance and Crypto, Trump is more of a bottom-up thinker, that is, the logic of "if this can make me successful, then I will choose it". This idea has been very clear in his past speeches:
“I'm too old to worry about who likes me and who dislikes me. I have more important things to do. If you love me, I love you. If you support me, I support you. If you hate me, I don’t care. Life goes on with or without you.”
In other words, from a future perspective at this stage, it cannot be said that Trump has always represented the position and interests of the Crypto financial system. It can only be said that Trump has borrowed this trend to achieve his own stage goals, thereby promoting the rapid development of this trend.
Musk's situation is slightly different. Compared with Trump, he is more idealistic, that is, "the future of the world should be like this, I stand with the future", with more top-down thinking, but of course, he is still a realist. This is also the essence of his choice to commemorate Nikola Tesla as the company name, and to surpass Tesla to achieve the combination of ideal and reality.
On this basis, Musk has a more idealistic vision of the future. He started from the point that future production relations will be more efficient, so Crypto's Smart Contract governance, decentralized financial issuance and decentralized collective decision-making are all obviously legitimate. This is also the reason why Trump immediately launched the D.O.G.E. department and appointed Musk as the head after winning the election, and why Musk proposed to cancel the IRS's position of adopting automated reporting. So in comparison, Musk's self-realization is precisely because of some more idealism. With this small difference, he can represent the position and interests of the Crypto financial system more than Trump.
Of course, this kind of representation and promotion is also based on the actual interests he has planned. Like any other organization or individual, it is difficult for Musk to work and develop from a position of de-egoization, at least not at this stage. In the superposition of Octavian and Lincoln, if Musk can successfully escape the current counter-pressure and enter the next stage, and then abandon the personal worship of honor himself and continue to promote the development of a decentralized new financial and social system, then he can become a historical node, that is, he can represent the position and interests of the new system. It is difficult, but it is not impossible.
V. The rise of the younger generation and the inevitability, problems and twists and turns of the establishment of a new system of production relations
Regardless of whether Musk can finally complete the historical node task in a good manner, he has successfully represented the transition between the two generations before and after the singularity. A new generation of young people is rising along this transition with more and more Degen ideas.
After Trump's victory, from the points discussed above: the qualitative change in the pattern caused by the alternation of the positions of the two major parties in the United States, the replacement of beliefs in the anchors of the three-generation financial system, the further growth of the decentralized management system of smart contracts established by Bitcoin and Crypto representing the future society, and the psychology and problems under different positions based on Trump and Musk as examples; from these, it can be seen that the trend of the new system construction process is obvious, and the problems and contradictory positions are also very clear.
The D.O.G.E. department emerged from a very funny perspective. Although it is incredible, it has revealed one of the biggest problems in the world today: in the current mainstream economic and social environment, low production efficiency is irreconcilable. The essence behind this is that the problems of global economic and trade exchanges are irreconcilable, which leads to irreconcilable contradictions between social civilizations, and the entropy increase of production, employment, and financial governance in various countries is irreversible. The peaceful environment brought by the economic theory dominated by Keynesian thought is about to come to an end.
What’s interesting is that when such a fundamental contradiction occurs, almost all countries and entities will choose to roll back the management method, advocating a traditional management method with the characteristics of their own civilization rather than taking the risk of accepting a new and more efficient management method. This was predicted and reasonably explained in Huntington’s “The Clash of Civilizations”, and it is also easy to understand, because taking a relatively familiar path is less risky and helps managers maintain stability. It is precisely for this reason that there will be great resistance to the process of establishing a new system, causing twists and turns in the development of the times.
In the current world environment, this traditional management method will occur more in the large civilization plates in the northern hemisphere. On the contrary, some sub-civilizations and southern hemisphere regions, where the original civilization intensity is not very concentrated (Note 5), will soon become the soil for the construction of new civilizations and emerging production relations systems.
VI. Social collective wisdom is helping to build a new system of production relations in a very special decentralized way
Devcon, the first large-scale Crypto industry event after the election, was held in Bangkok, Thailand. Known as the most charming city with Cyberpunk style, it is jam-packed from morning to night. The chaos under neon lights and congestion constitutes a hotbed environment for the rapid interaction and cooperation of decentralized civilization, and is also jokingly called the city of sin. Degen and Digital Nomads build DeFi's Infra here, discuss the skills of rapid launch and gold-making Meme, and the emotion of FOMO is quickly integrated into the ideas of Blockchain and Protocol with the budding of AI in an unregulated environment, forming a decentralized social and economic management system that breaks the Keynesian thought and forms a new smart contract system, just like millions of people are writing a new Code of Hammurabi together. To a certain extent, Bangkok, Thailand, compared with Singapore under Token2049 and Dubai, which shines with luxury, has more halal characteristics (Native Features) of the emerging production relations system.
When I mention the characteristics of this era as a paradigm comparison, I often use the Renaissance in the late Middle Ages, and Cyberpunk's Bangkok is the Baroque in the Renaissance. The iterative evolution of Degen's social group consciousness, in such a diversified and open environment, forms a collision of fast neurons and forms swarm AI.
The openness of the soil has an amazing effect on the evolution of this collective wisdom. Even the Solana Foundation itself may not have imagined that within two weeks after Trump's victory, the meme explosion driven by pump.fun would reach this level. The seemingly disordered and speculative Meme Launch is quietly extracting the liquidity of CeFi and TradFi, changing the logic of CEX and VC projects, resisting and rebuilding a new order that is more DeFi Native. All the PVPs who work day and night are in fact the basic units of the new system microfinance, the basic cells of the next generation of economies, and the cellular automata of the new financial system. In addition, the concepts of AI Agent and AI Validator continue to evolve and mature, and CZ's recently advocated DeSci ideas serve as a catalyst to add a direction to the disorder of Meme. I believe that the evolution and development in the next few years will be immeasurable.
The grassroots iteration of the establishment of the new production relations system has never actually slowed down. Trump’s victory is like a flame that started this long-accumulated catalytic reaction.
VII. The current global world’s major and minor contradictions and the chaotic cycle brought about by uncertainty
The world is at a huge historical node in November 2024, with uncertainty, more profound chaos and the establishment of a new system all on the verge of breaking out. The tension and confrontation brought about by Trump's victory will be the final blow to dismantle the original world consensus.
What is the main contradiction in the world today? Samuel Huntington pointed out in 1994 that it is the contradiction of the clash of civilizations between different civilizations. This is a basic cognition that I respect and agree with very much. However, in 2024, after experiencing the world's civilization and development are as different as ice and fire, seeing the dramatic victory of Trump and Musk, and imagining the unspeakable uncertainty and chaotic expectations after that, I understand that the contradiction is not limited to this.
The main contradictions in the current global world are:
From a top-down perspective, countries and interest groups around the world, based on their own original collective interests, use power to manage productivity and means of production in order to maintain and amplify their own advantages in order to confront and compete with other groups in an environment based on the symbiotic peace of the post-World War II global Keynesian Western economy.
same
From a bottom-up perspective, individuals and stakeholders around the world, based on their own emerging individual interests, are facing a new generation of global smart contract financial environment built on decentralized blockchains. In order to transcend and break the original advantages and obtain new soil for reconstruction and growth, they are thinking of taking a different approach to the construction of productivity and means of production.
In fact, as of the end of 2024, most countries and stakeholders in the world are still in a semi-feudal and semi-centralized state capitalist environment. The current main contradiction is making them transition to a semi-centralized state capitalist and semi-decentralized digital information management environment.
Under such a major contradiction, the conflict of civilizations and the contradiction between AI and humans are temporarily subordinate to minor contradictions at this stage. Before Trump's victory, the conflict of civilizations represented by the potential Thucydides Trap and the potential new Cold War still had the characteristics of a major contradiction; but after Trump's victory, it is obvious that these will gradually become minor contradictions, and even some conflicts of civilizations in the Middle East will become minor contradictions in a certain period of time. Instead, this new major contradiction will replace it. Of course, within the 21st century, the contradiction between AI and humans is likely to heat up, exceed, and become a newer major contradiction, but not at the moment.
For such a new conflict of civilizations, which is completely different from top-down and bottom-up, the cycle of uncertainty and chaos has just begun. Many people think that the uncertainty and chaos brought about by the epidemic in 2020-2023 have ended. In fact, this is just the prelude to a greater era. Plague, war, famine, and death in the new era paradigm have their own pace. What we need to do is not to avoid or deny, but to recognize, face, follow the trend and change.
Author: Yang Ge Gary
Date: November 21, 2024
Notes:
Note 1: In an article written in February 2020, <The Gear of Society>, the cyclical process of global historical development is divided into four stages: idealism, liberalism, practicalism, and collectivism.
Note 2: Around the time of Trump’s election victory in November 2024, the correlation between the U.S. dollar and gold changed dramatically from +0.85 to -0.89, setting a historical record.
Note 3: Wang Anshi's Reform was a joint reform movement between the emperor and his ministers that began in 1069 during the Northern Song Dynasty in Chinese history and ultimately ended in failure.
Note 4: <The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order is a book by American political scientist Samuel Huntington, first published in 1996.
Note 5: Refers to regions where the integration of diverse civilizations is relatively balanced and the dominant civilization is not very strong, such as Southeast Asia, Central and South America, Australia and Oceania, Africa and parts of the Middle East.
