A Brief Discussion on the Market of Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH):

Currently, Bitcoin (#BTC) continues to reach new highs, while Ethereum (#ETH) has not suddenly achieved new highs. The core reason is that Bitcoin has a stronger demand, while Ethereum relies solely on retail investors' demand.

As we know, the volatility of market prices is determined by the competition among major funds, with retail investors having relatively weak influence. The direct driving force behind price increases is that demand exceeds supply. Looking at the current market situation, the growth in Bitcoin demand mainly comes from institutional investors, particularly the participation of ETFs. However, the inflow of funds into ETFs is relatively slow, making it difficult to drive such a strong unilateral rise. Therefore, we can speculate that behind the surge in Bitcoin prices, there may be a significant demand coming from other channels.

Currently, Bitcoin's high position also lacks sufficient turnover, mainly because institutions and large funds have accumulated a large amount of chips at lower price ranges (such as $30,000-$40,000). Retail investors often lack sufficient capital and information advantages, making it very difficult to avoid mistakes in this market environment. For those investors attempting to capture the rebound opportunity by buying Ethereum and other altcoins, their losses may outweigh the risks of shorting.

From a macroeconomic fundamental perspective, the US dollar continues to maintain a high level, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has just begun, with market liquidity not yet fully released. From the performance of the US stock market, it is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with some leading companies like NVIDIA not meeting market expectations in their earnings reports, indicating that overall market sentiment is not as optimistic as expected.

Based on the above analysis, my personal view is that this wave of market may face a correction in the short term, with a potential correction magnitude of around 20%. Continuing to go long at this position carries significant risk; a rational approach should be to remain in cash and observe, waiting for the market to break out of the top structure and then consider entering on the right side.