Bitcoin (BTC) Short-Term Trend Analysis: $100,000 Breakthrough Still Needs Observation, Moderate Pullbacks Provide Liquidity Opportunities
Current analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) indicates that the possibility of breaking through $100,000 this week is low, mainly due to a lack of clear pullback signals.
At present, BTC remains in a strong bullish phase. In the short term, if the price pulls back to the range of $95,200-$95,400 on the 4-hour chart (MA7), or $92,000 (MA7) on the daily chart, there is no need to worry too much, as this means the trend may still continue to rise.
If the price on the 1-hour chart stays above $95,000 (currently in this range), there is ample room for upward movement, which mainly relies on market turnover and consensus to drive it, with the target still aimed at $100,000.
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RSI Indicator Analysis:
The current RSI has reached 80, entering the overbought range. Although this signal indicates that market sentiment is overly enthusiastic, under such market conditions, the indicative nature of the RSI may lose accuracy, so this indicator can be temporarily ignored.
CEM (Futures Market) Analysis:
BTC futures prices maintain a positive premium of about 600 points over spot prices, indicating that bullish demand in the futures market remains strong, especially during sensitive periods in the US market.
Summary:
Currently, I maintain an optimistic attitude and continue to observe the breakthrough at the $100,000 mark. If it breaks through $100,000 this week, the next step will be to reassess the market trend. The risk of continued rise is that it may draw liquidity away from other markets besides BTC. For BTC, excessive rises could trigger short-term pullbacks, and appropriate pullbacks can provide broader liquidity opportunities for the market.
As for whether it will directly break through $110,000 or $120,000, I personally believe it is currently impossible to accurately predict long-term trends. First, observe the price movements near $100,000, and conduct further analysis in conjunction with market data; this will be my current operational thought process.
