Dogecoin's price is currently exhibiting an extremely bearish chart pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling potential caution for investors. After forming a descending wedge pattern from November 12 to November 19, the anticipated breakout did not sustain and failed to meet bullish expectations.
On November 19, Dogecoin escaped the formation, sparking initial optimism among traders. However, crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) predicted the breakout would be weak, and subsequent price movements confirmed his predictions.
Where will Dogecoin's price go next?
The memecoin has faced strong rejection at a significant resistance level, specifically the macro Fibonacci retracement of 0.786. Kevin emphasizes that until this level is "cleanly and forcefully broken, there’s nothing to get too crazy about". He also points out that Bitcoin (BTC) is at a major resistance level, indicating that the next significant move of Dogecoin may coincide with Bitcoin surpassing the $100,000 mark. "Until then, things will just be going in circles," he notes.
Encouraging traders to rein in their enthusiasm, Kevin states, "Please control your excitement as there’s nothing to be excited about in the short term. BTC is still at a major resistance level and so is Dogecoin. Nothing has broken yet."
He emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin's moves, adding, "Providing technical analysis on BTC is more important than on Dogecoin at this moment. DOGE is just trading sideways, waiting for Bitcoin to decide whether to go up or down. Wherever Bitcoin goes, Doge will follow in the short term."
Analyzing the 4-hour chart, Kevin identified an "unpleasant triple top" at the macro Fibonacci 0.786 for Dogecoin—a bearish signal that could indicate impending downward pressure. He warns that if a correction down to $0.30 occurs, as he suggested earlier, "a lot of blind bullish speculators will need to rethink a bit."
Triple Top is a bearish reversal pattern in technical analysis, indicating potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. It occurs when the price hits the same resistance level three times, each time retreating after failing to break through. Dogecoin's continuous inability to surpass the Fib 0.786 level at $0.41 suggests that bullish momentum is weakening in the short term.
Kevin emphasizes that Dogecoin has not truly broken out: "Until it clearly breaks the macro Fib 0.786 level at $0.41, it is just trading sideways". Looking ahead, he outlined a bullish scenario dependent on breaking this key resistance level. "If Dogecoin strongly breaks that macro Fib 0.786 level, then the $0.80 to $0.85 range will be in sight. However, there is still a lot of work to do. BTC needs to push higher," he explains.
For several days, Kevin has predicted a deeper correction for Dogecoin. The formation of the triple top and the rejection at the Fibonacci 0.786 level supports his main hypothesis. He outlined his initial price target: "A level we would want to hold for Dogecoin is the range from $0.30 to $0.26, which is the golden pocket retracement. That is a 30-40% correction from the local peak, which is a perfect size correction in a bull market."
Focusing on a longer-term view, Kevin highlights the significance of the upcoming monthly close. "Dogecoin's next major goal is to close the monthly candle in 11 days above $0.335. That would create DOGE's highest-ever monthly close, and I will be watching this closely," he states. At the time of the press release, DOGE was trading at $0.39.
