I. Based on charts and technical indicators:
CURRENT STATUS ANALYSIS:
1. Current price: 94,033.12 (+1.96%)
2. Technical indicators:
- RSI(6) = 51.89: Neutral zone, still room to increase
- MAs stacked increasingly (9,20,50,200)
- OBV increases steadily, confirming the trend
- Stable volume above average
TECHNICAL STRENGTH POINTS:
1. Active:
- Price above all MAs
- Golden cross MA9 cuts MA20
- Bollinger Bands expanding upwards
- Good support from MA20 (93,632)
2. Momentum:
- OBV increases steadily
- RSI not in overbought territory
- Buying volume > selling
- No signs of bearish divergence
FORECAST SCENARIO:
1. Main scenario (60%):
- Target 1: 95,151 (Bollinger Upper)
- Target 2: 96,000 (psychological level)
- Support: 93,632 (MA20)
- Conditions:
+ Maintain good volume
+ No sudden bad news
2. Cautious scenario (30%):
- Sideway 93,500-95,000
- Accumulate before breakout
- Strong support: 92,584 (MA50)
3. Negative scenario (10%):
- Pull back to test MA50
- Worst case: 91,500 (low 24h)
- Low probability as the trend remains strong
TRADING STRATEGY:
1. Long strategy:
a) Conservative:
- Entry: 93,500-93,800 (MA20 zone)
- Stop loss: 92,500 (-1.4%)
- Take profit: 95,000 (+1.3%)
b) Aggressive:
- Entry: Break 95,000 with volume
- Stop loss: 94,000 (-1%)
- Target: 96,000 (+1%)
2. Scalp trade:
- Buy dips on MA20
- Take profit quickly +0.5-1%
- Tight stop loss -0.3-0.5%
ENTRY POINT RECOMMENDATIONS:
1. Safe zone: 93,500-93,800
- MA20 zone is providing good support
- RSI may drop to 45-50
- Risk/Reward minimum 1:1
2. Aggressive zone: 94,500-94,800
- Break new high
- Need volume confirmation
- Size smaller than safe zone
RISK MANAGEMENT:
1. Position size:
- 40% in safe zone
- 30% in aggressive zone
- 30% waiting for deeper pullback
2. Stop loss:
- Do not let losses exceed 1.5%
- Trailing stop when in profit > 1%
- Break even when the market fluctuates sharply
IMPORTANT NOTES:
1. BTC is leading the market well
2. Altcoins may pump strongly if BTC stabilizes
3. Pay attention to macro news that may affect
4. Do not FOMO when the price rises too quickly
5. Prioritize capital management over chasing profit
OVERALL STRATEGY:
1. This phase should trade according to the trend
2. Focus on important price zones
3. Combine PA with volume to confirm
4. Ready to take partial profits
5. Do not overtrade when the market is volatile.
Ii. ASSESSING BTC SITUATION IN TENSE NEWS CONTEXT:
1. ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NEWS:
- Russia-Ukraine conflict escalation is very bad news
- The market may panic sell
- Risk assets often get sold off heavily
- Can lead to a domino effect across the market
2. POTENTIAL MARKET REACTION:
Worst case scenario (40%):
- Strong dump to 88-90k (-5-6%)
- Selling volume surges
- Altcoins may drop -15-20%
- Chain margin call
Cautious scenario (40%):
- Pull back to 91-92k (-2-3%)
- Sideway in this zone waiting for developments
- Average volume
- The market is fluctuating
Positive scenario (20%):
- BTC is seen as a safe haven
- Hold above 93k
- Quick recovery after fluctuations
3. HEDGING STRATEGY:
If currently in profit:
- Take profit 70-80% position
- Trailing stop on remaining position
- Should not be too greedy
- Wait for the market to stabilize before re-entering
If currently holding position:
- Tight stop loss at 92.5k (-1.5%)
- Do not average down
- Reduce margin if possible
- Ready to cut losses if the market panics
If observing:
- Should not open new positions yet
- Wait for the market to react to news
- Wait for clear volume and price action
- Entry when there is strong confirmation
4. POINTS TO NOTE:
Regarding technicals:
- 92.5k is an important support zone
- RSI may quickly drop to oversold territory
- Monitor OBV to assess selling pressure
- Volume is the most important indicator right now
Regarding risk management:
- Do not FOMO bottom fishing
- Reduce trading size to 30-50%
- Prioritize capital preservation
- Beware of unexpected deep dumps
5. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION:
Short term (next 24h):
- Cut loss/Take profit immediately upon opening
- Do not open additional positions
- Wait for the market to stabilize
- Closely monitor news developments
Medium term (1-2 weeks):
- Observe market reaction
- Wait for clearer news
- Enter gradually when there are good signals
- Prioritize risk management
6. IMPORTANT WARNING:
- The market may fluctuate extremely
- Do not trade with high leverage
- Ready for the worst-case scenario
- Bad news may not have been fully reflected yet
CONCLUSION:
- Currently should prioritize capital preservation
- Waiting and observing is the best strategy
- Should not take strong action
- Need to closely monitor developments in the next 24h
