CURRENT SITUATION ANALYSIS:
1. Price: 0.37918 (-2.55%)
2. Technical indicators:
- RSI(6) = 48.12: Neutral but weak
- Price below most MAs
- Volume is gradually decreasing
- OBV is flat, not supporting the trend
ASSESSING IMPACT OF 500 MILLION DOGE:
1. Negative:
- Significant potential selling pressure
- Could be a sign that whales want to exit
- Sensitive moment when the price is weak
2. Risk:
- Quick dump if this amount of DOGE is sold
- Could create panic for retail
- Market sentiment influence
SCENARIOS & HANDLING PLANS:
1. Currently holding at 0.39:
- Worst-case scenario: Down to 0.34-0.35 (-12%)
- Handling plan:
+ Cut loss immediately at 0.378 (-3%) to preserve capital
+ Or set stop loss at 0.365 (-6.4%)
+ Should not average down at this time
+ If holding, must accept a risk of -15%
2. Currently holding at 0.38:
- Break even point is near
- Handling plan:
+ Cut 50% position to reduce risk
+ Stop loss at 0.365 (-4%)
+ Can wait for recovery for a better exit
+ Should not hold overnight
3. Currently in profit:
- Take profit at 70-80% of position
- Hold 20-30% with stop loss at break-even price
- Should not be greedy at this stage
- Wait for the market to stabilize before reinvesting
SCENARIO-BASED STRATEGY:
1. Worst-case scenario (30%):
- Strong dump to 0.34
- Volume of DOGE sold in panic
- Plan: Cut loss entirely if breaking 0.365
2. Cautious scenario (50%):
- Sideways in the range of 0.36-0.38
- Whales manipulate to shake off retail
- Plan: Reduce position size, wait for clearer market signals
3. Positive scenario (20%):
- Recovery testing 0.39-0.40
- 500 million DOGE is fake FUD
- Plan: Take profit partially when recovering
IMPORTANT ADVICE:
1. Do not FOMO buy small bounce
2. Prioritize capital preservation first
3. Be cautious of sudden dumps
4. Should reduce margin if using leverage
5. Monitor whales' wallets for additional information
UPCOMING TRADING STRATEGY:
1. Do not open new positions
2. Waiting for the market to react to 500 million DOGE
3. Monitor BTC fluctuations
4. Can scalp trade if high volatility appears
5. Minimum Risk/Reward ratio of 1:2 for all new trades
In summary: During this period, prioritize risk management, avoid excessive greed, and be prepared for possible negative scenarios.
