Solana’s recent on-chain activity data has amazed the market, but there is an unusual story behind it. On November 16, Solana’s on-chain transfer volume reached an all-time high of $318 billion, a figure that is almost three times its total market capitalization of $112.5 billion, while the number of active addresses soared to 22 million. However, in-depth analysis reveals that this “growth” may not be entirely organic, but a phenomenon driven by robot trading.
On-chain data and market concerns: Behind the inflated numbers
Data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shows that despite a surge in total transfers and active addresses, Solana’s average and median transaction volumes have not grown in tandem.
This contrast raises market doubts that some on-chain activities in Solana may be artificially created by high-frequency trading bots.
This phenomenon is not an isolated case. Historical data shows that Solana has experienced similar 'network activity inflation' patterns multiple times, such as the liquidity pool data from Raydium:
Certain liquidity pool balances are as low as $7, yet the 24-hour trading volume reaches as high as $400,000, indicating clear anomalies.
Nevertheless, this series of activities has also driven the growth of network revenues and fees:
Solana's daily revenue exceeded $6 million on November 20, setting a new historical high;
The daily trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEX) also set a record of $693 million, with Raydium accounting for 74%.
These data highlight a fact: even with abnormal activities, Solana's on-chain economy continues to show strong liquidity and attractiveness.
Technical analysis and market expectations for SOL: How will the price fluctuate?
Although the authenticity of on-chain activities is questioned, investors remain optimistic about Solana's price performance. Analysts like Crypto Titan point out that Solana is forming a classic cup-and-handle pattern, with expectations that its price may break through the $400 mark. Meanwhile, renowned trader Peter Brandt has given a more conservative forecast, believing that SOL's near-term target price is $275.
Moreover, from a longer-term perspective, Solana may only be in the early stages of a bull market:
Over the past month, the price of SOL has risen by 43%, with an increase of 15% in the past week;
The market capitalization first broke $117.8 billion on November 18, solidifying its position as the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Ecological perspective: The logic of Solana's rise.
Solana's strong growth is not only due to technological innovation but is also closely related to its ecological development:
Efficient and low-cost: Solana's high transaction speed and extremely low fees make it one of the preferred chains for DEX and NFT trading.
DeFi activity: Solana's DeFi protocols, such as Marinade Finance and Raydium, have attracted significant capital, and although some trading volumes may be artificially inflated, its real user base continues to grow significantly.
Meme economic effect: The recent surge in memecoins has further boosted on-chain trading and liquidity demand.
However, it should be noted that with the increase in bot activity, the Solana ecosystem may face scrutiny pressure, challenging its decentralized attributes.
Is it a bubble or the future prosperity?
The key question is: Is Solana's current growth sustainable? Although bot trading may inflate data in the short term, it could lower the real user engagement and even affect market confidence. However, it is undeniable that Solana's technological advantages and ecological layout have already gained a head start in the bull market.
For investors, this means:
If SOL can prove the sustainability of its growth, the future price is expected to challenge $400 or even higher;
In the short term, attention should be paid to the authenticity of trading volumes and the health of ecological projects.
Ultimately, whether Solana is a technology-driven future or a bubble-driven market operation will depend on the development of its ecosystem and the establishment of market trust.
Follow Lao Chen, who will help you see through the market haze and understand the true future of cryptocurrency!
The recent market volatility has brought new investment opportunities. Through Lao Chen's in-depth analysis and data research, some potential high-return opportunities have already been identified. Whether it’s Bitcoin’s momentum indicators or technical signals from other mainstream coins, Lao Chen will provide detailed analysis to help you navigate the market with ease.
