Recently, Bitcoin's price broke through $93,000, reaching a historical high and coming close to $100,000. Google Trends shows that Bitcoin's popularity has reached a peak not seen since 2021.
Additionally, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released data stating that Bitcoin retail-level (below $100,000) trading volume has reached a three-year high, indicating that retail investors are entering the market.
In the future, what other catalysts will drive the price rise in the bull market?
1. MicroStrategy may be included in the S&P 500 index
According to CCN, its new accounting standards may allow MSTR to be included in the S&P 500 index.
Data shows that MSTR's performance in US stocks has been outstanding, with a return of over 450% this year.
If MicroStrategy can enter the S&P 500, more qualifying companies may be included in the index, gaining higher attention and influence from traditional capital. This is undoubtedly a significant positive for the cryptocurrency market.
2. Microsoft reviews Bitcoin investment proposal
On October 24, Microsoft submitted an A-file to the US SEC listing issues to be discussed at the next shareholder meeting. One proposal suggests that the tech company should research Bitcoin to hedge against inflation and other macroeconomic impacts. On October 30, Microsoft shareholders began preliminary voting on whether the company should invest in Bitcoin.
The document also shows that Microsoft will vote on the 'assessment of investment in Bitcoin' topic at the shareholder meeting on December 10. Although the board has proposed to oppose this proposal, shareholders have different thoughts. Vanguard and BlackRock are currently Microsoft's largest institutional shareholders, holding 8.95% and 7.30%, respectively.
If the vote is successfully passed, as a publicly traded company with significant influence, it may affect and promote more listed companies to purchase Bitcoin.
3. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December.
Cryptographic assets represented by Bitcoin are increasingly influenced by macro factors, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy still has a crucial impact on the inflow of funds into cryptocurrency assets.
The Federal Reserve's next meeting will take place from December 17 to 18.
Besides the aforementioned three catalysts, Gary, the chairman of the US SEC who has been criticized for being too harsh on the cryptocurrency industry, may announce his resignation after Thanksgiving. Trump will also assume office as the new President of the United States in January, and future cryptocurrency regulatory policies may become more lenient and friendly.
The recent market is dominated by memes, and currently, there are four main lines in the MEME market:
The first line is the political line: this line mainly revolves around Musk and his Dogecoin, as well as the meme track that spills over from Doge to exchanges. Representative projects include PNUT, DOGE, etc.
The second line is the economic line: the lifeline of US stocks lies in the development of AI technology, which corresponds to the AI + MEME track in the cryptocurrency space. Representative projects include ACT, GOAT, etc.
The third line is the Binance line: the DeSci track that has been very popular these days is highly favored by CZ, and is primarily invested in by Binance. So when looking at the DeSci narrative, just hold on tight to Binance and CZ's thigh, biology + meme!
The fourth line is the MEME coin infrastructure: Solana and some public chains that ride the MEME wave constitute this line. Representative projects include SOL, SUI, etc. This is also the reason why SOL has performed so strongly recently.
Currently popular Meme tokens: if the trend is right, it's all about being precise + heavily invested + long-term holding.
Elon Musk's Doge
The national salvation concept of PNUT
The AIMeme's GOAT
BRC20's ORDI
Commemorative concept LUCE
DeSci's RIF, URO
Does ETH still have the opportunity to explode?
The recent ETH market has truly disappointed many people, and many feel that ETH has completely declined this round, allowing newly emerging public chains like SOL, SUI, BNB, etc. to take away its funds and traffic. Is ETH really that bad?
Regarding the current ETH trend, my view is that you don't need to look at the previous data; at a higher level, you can refer to the breakout that started on October 17 last year. You will realize that there hasn't been a significant rise at this moment, which indicates that the overall market is still in its initial stage, because whenever ETH starts to rally crazily, it's almost always at the end of the market.
So regarding the ETH we currently hold, my strategy is: hold onto the spot, the $3000 position has an over 80% probability of doubling in the next three months.
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