Bitcoin HODL data is sending a clear message: Long-term holders (LTH) remain steadfast despite the strong market growth in recent times. This is not only a sign of long-term confidence in Bitcoin but also a basis for expecting stronger price increases in the future.
What is the Bitcoin HODL Wave?
The HODL wave is an important tool for analyzing the behavior of Bitcoin investors. It divides the Bitcoin supply into groups based on the time that BTC is held without moving, highlighting the differences between long-term and short-term investors.
🟣 Bitcoin >10 years: The 'OG Bitcoin,' the pioneers, and the hardest-core HODLers.
🔴 Bitcoin <6 months: Activity of short-term traders, often influenced by FOMO or FUD.
Changes in HODL waves help understand market sentiment and identify potential buy-sell pressure.
Latest HODL Data: LTH are Dominating
Current data shows that 76.34% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in over 6 months – a significant high, signaling strong HODL sentiment within the community.
Percentage of Bitcoin supply by holding time:
6 months - 12 months: 12.52%
1 year - 2 years: 9.73%
2 years - 3 years: 7.78%
3 years - 5 years: 15.33%
5 years - 7 years: 8.09%
7 years - 10 years: 6.08%
>10 years: 16.81%
👉 Highlights:
~77% of Bitcoin is 'locked up' in the hands of LTH.
The >10 year group (16.81%) shows that core investors have no intention of selling, regardless of market fluctuations.
LTH Remain Patient – What is Happening?
1️⃣ Long-term mindset: Those who have held Bitcoin for 2 years or more are not affected by short-term price fluctuations. They have weathered bear market cycles and understand the long-term value of Bitcoin.
2️⃣ Selling from the short-term group: Data shows that 2.14% of the supply from the 6-12 month group has been sold in the recent price increase. These are primarily new investors or short-term traders, taking the opportunity to lock in profits.
3️⃣ Expectations of higher prices: The patience of LTH signals that they believe in Bitcoin's potential to reach higher prices. In previous cycles, LTH only sold heavily when prices peaked (2017: $20,000, 2021: $69,000). Currently, they are not ready to sell, implying that a new peak has not yet been reached.
Bullish Signals from HODL Data
1. Scarce supply:
When 76% of Bitcoin is not moving, the market is in a state of tight supply. Combined with new money from institutional and retail investors, buy pressure will push prices higher.
2. Trust in Bitcoin as a store of value:
Bitcoin is not just a speculative tool. For LTH, it is 'digital gold' – a safe store of value, especially in the context of inflation and global economic instability.
3. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) Effect:
As Bitcoin prices continue to rise, those on the sidelines may feel fear of missing out on the opportunity, leading to a new wave of buying. This will push prices higher, creating a growth cycle.
Can Bitcoin Reach $100,000?
History supports strong rallies:
2017: Bitcoin from $1,000 to $20,000 (20x increase).
2020-2021: Bitcoin from $10,000 to $69,000 (almost a 7x increase).
With factors such as scarce supply and institutional money flow, Bitcoin is fully capable of reaching $100,000 or more in the next bull cycle.
Factors driving price:
Bitcoin ETF funds: Money flow from ETF funds like BlackRock will provide significant liquidity and enhance the legitimacy of Bitcoin.
Widespread acceptance: Major institutions and countries are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
2024 halving cycle: The halving of block rewards will reduce new supply, increasing upward price pressure.
Conclusion
HODL data shows that long-term holders remain extremely patient, despite Bitcoin reaching new highs. This is a strong bullish signal, as when LTH do not sell, the market will face a supply shortage.
With increasing interest from financial institutions, along with the upcoming halving cycle, Bitcoin is fully capable of reaching new historical milestones.
76% of the supply is 'locked up' – and steadfast HODLers believe the peak has not yet been reached. Are you ready to join this journey? 🚀
