Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Golem (@web3_golem)
The Bitcoin ecosystem was once regarded as one of the most promising ecosystems in this bull market, with a total market capitalization expected to reach the hundred billion dollar level.
However, after the inscription boom from late 2023 to early 2024 ended, the Bitcoin ecosystem slowly entered a bear market, with a sharp decline in new users and funds. Although subsequent Rune, five-character BRC-20 token pizza, Fractal ecosystem, and CAT-20 have provided some attention to the Bitcoin ecosystem, the scale has always been less than the initial network inscription boom.
On one hand, the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, setting new highs, with $100,000 seeming within reach; on the other hand, the gradual prosperity of the Solana ecosystem and other ecosystems (such as Base, Sui, etc.). When will the wind of a bull market blow into the Bitcoin ecosystem? Odaily Planet Daily will outline some clues indicating that the Bitcoin ecosystem is about to explode again.
Leading exchanges support the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem
For the ecosystem, the support of leading centralized exchanges is crucial, which means huge traffic, new funds, and some potential development resources. Recently, users' attention has primarily focused on which Solana memes will be launched on Binance, but Binance has also been supporting the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
During the last inscription bull market, Binance actively listed BRC-20 token ORDI, SATS spot trading, and RATS contract trading one after another. Subsequently, other excellent asset protocols such as Rune, Atomical, and CAT-20 emerged in the Bitcoin ecosystem, all of which are likely to receive support from Binance.
Especially yesterday (November 18), Binance Pool announced support for Fractal Bitcoin (FB) joint mining, and the token FB surged over 80% shortly after the announcement. Although Binance cautioned in the announcement that 'the launch of Fractal Bitcoin (FB) mining service on Binance Pool does not guarantee that the token will be listed on Binance.com,' it is still a positive signal for the struggling Bitcoin ecosystem and Fractal.
In addition to Binance, OKX has also been supporting the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Whether it is BRC-20, Atomical, Runes, or the recent Fractal and CAT20 ecosystems, OKX Wallet has been continuously updating the wallet to provide users with a better experience in the Bitcoin ecosystem. In addition to UniSat, OKX Wallet has also become the most used wallet in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Since November, OKX's Chinese official Twitter has frequently mentioned the Bitcoin ecosystem. On November 11, when Bitcoin reached a historical high, OKX mentioned that 'the BTC ecosystem is also thriving,' and the images included basically covered all tracks and protocols of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
On November 12, OKX's Chinese official Twitter once again published an article for the Bitcoin ecosystem and included images of BRC-20, Runes, CAT-20, and Fractal, and these four protocols/sectors also have relatively high enthusiasm and topic levels in the Bitcoin ecosystem community.
According to OKX's latest announcement, it will officially launch DOGUSDT perpetual contracts and start trading at 2:00 PM (UTC+8) on November 19, 2024. (Odaily note: DOG is a completely open-source, community-driven meme coin based on the Bitcoin Rune standard.)
Runes surpass BRC-20, becoming the number one asset protocol in the BTC ecosystem
Previously, the Bitcoin ecosystem was still in the early exploration stage, where developers actively conducted various experiments on the Bitcoin network, giving birth to various asset protocols. Actively exploring the possibilities of the Bitcoin ecosystem is inherently a good thing, but there are also 'side effects,' as existing asset protocols may operate independently, dispersing community consensus and funds within the Bitcoin ecosystem, which is not conducive to forming a joint force.
However, this situation is beginning to change, as Runes is becoming the largest consensus asset issuance protocol in the Bitcoin ecosystem, even surpassing the 'big brother' BRC-20. From the data, since the official release of the Runes protocol in April this year, Rune trading has long occupied over 50% of the market share on the Bitcoin chain, followed by regular Bitcoin transfer transactions or transactions of other asset protocols (some asset protocol transactions have not been identified), while the trading share of BRC-20 and Ordinals has shrunk to less than 10%.
Data source: https://geniidata.com/user/orddata/bitcoin-protocols-analysis
Compared to other asset protocols, Runes currently has the best community activity and profitability effect in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
As the heat of the ecosystem fades and asset prices fall, many communities within the Bitcoin ecosystem have gradually 'declined.' However, within Runes, communities such as DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON, PUPS•WORLD•PEACE, BILLION·DOLLAR·CAT, RSIC·GENESIS·RUNE, etc., remain active, while others high-quality communities, such as MEMENTO·MORI and GIZMO•IMAGINARY•KITTEN, continue to emerge.
Although there are situations of PVP and 'gas arbitrage,' Runes still continuously generates hotspots and has some profitable effects within the Bitcoin ecosystem. The AI memes on the Solana ecosystem are booming, and the FOMO sentiment will naturally drive the popularity of other ecosystem AI memes. Among the many asset protocols in the Bitcoin ecosystem, only Runes has embraced this wave of popularity and brought about wealth effects, with the current leading Runes AI track CYPHER•GENESIS surpassing a market cap of $30 million. (Recommended reading: November 15 and November 18 Odaily editorial department's complete record of meme operations)
Last night, the new Rune MILO•THE•MILLIONAIRE•GATOR was etched, and I personally tested that minting a set (25 pieces) cost about 60 USDT. Due to the connection between the project deployer and the largest IP puppet in the Bitcoin ecosystem, a set on Magic Eden has now risen to around 118 USDT.
Although the current total market capitalization of Runes is $1.91 billion, it is still less than the total market capitalization of BRC-20, which exceeds $3 billion. However, as the Bitcoin ecosystem gradually recovers, the total market capitalization of Runes is also climbing, and imagining surpassing BRC-20 is just a matter of time.
Data source: Geniidata
Today, OKX announced the listing of DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON, which also represents the recognition of Runes by leading exchanges. If one had to guess which Bitcoin ecosystem asset would be the first to be listed on Binance, the leading asset within Runes is the most likely.
Of course, there are also other very high-quality asset protocols and ecological segments in this round of the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as the Lightning Network, Fractal, CAT20, and the Bitcoin staking and restaking narrative led by Babylon, etc. However, at this stage, the ecosystem should focus its efforts on pushing the Bitcoin ecosystem back to the center stage. Only in this way can other high-quality assets and narratives gain more attention.
Waiting for the wind
Once the decision to buy is made, everything else is left to time.
The first bull market in the Bitcoin ecosystem occurred from June to July 2023, when the small images of Ordinals and the new asset issuance method represented by BRC-20 attracted people's attention;
The second Bitcoin ecosystem boom happened six months later, from November 2023 to February 2024, when some BRC-20 tokens were listed on leading exchanges, and the inscription gameplay was replicated across all chains, creating many overnight wealth stories, similar to today's memes;
The third small bull market in the Bitcoin ecosystem occurred around April 2024 when the Runes protocol was officially launched, lasting about a month.
Based on past experience, the cyclical period of bull and bear markets in the Bitcoin ecosystem is 3 to 6 months. Now, half a year has passed since the last bull market, and although there have been some hot projects in the ecosystem that have attracted short-term attention during this time, no large-scale effects have formed. At the end of June this year, Odaily Planet Daily published an article analyzing that a Bitcoin ecosystem bull market might be approaching (related reading: What will be the antidote to bring the Bitcoin ecosystem out of the low valley period?), and now, several months have passed, and we still believe that the wind will come.
