Written by: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
As the inauguration of President-elect Trump approaches, some key positions in his cabinet have emerged over the past few days, but the competition for the Treasury Secretary position has become increasingly fierce.
According to current market expectations, the nomination for the new Treasury Secretary may be announced as early as this week, but the Trump team has not yet made a final decision on the candidate. This morning, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino revealed that the Trump team has sought opinions from Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, and at least one other BlackRock executive; additionally, Trump will meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss personnel issues for the next administration.
The prediction market Polymarket has opened a betting pool for the Treasury Secretary position. As of around 10:00, the trading volume in this pool has exceeded $2 million, with the current popular potential candidates as follows (only covering the top 6 candidates, remaining candidates have a very low chance):
Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh;
Key Square Group founder Scott Bessent;
Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick;
Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan;
Former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer;
Senator Bill Hagerty.
Currently, what the market most anticipates is a figure with a more favorable attitude towards cryptocurrencies taking control of the Treasury, thus providing a more lenient growth environment for the industry. Next, Odaily Planet Daily will sequentially review the past attitudes of these six potential candidates towards the cryptocurrency industry.
Probability frontrunner: Kevin Warsh
First of all, it is worth celebrating that the current highest nomination probability goes to former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (46%), who has long been seen as a supporter of cryptocurrencies— even earlier than Trump's attitude shift.
As early as the beginning of 2021, Warsh stated in an interview with CNBC: 'In an economic environment where the dollar is weakening, Bitcoin as part of an investment portfolio makes sense.'
In 2022, Warsh also invested in Bitwise, one of the leading proponents of BTC and ETH ETFs.
However, a certain controversy surrounding Warsh is his multiple statements supporting central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which may not be favored by the decentralized cryptocurrency industry.
The latest news is that the Trump team supports Warsh for U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Warsh has been invited to Trump's Mar-a-Lago for discussions, but the relevant discussions are still ongoing.
Soros' former deputy: Scott Bessent
Hedge fund Key Square Group founder Scott Bessent, a former deputy to Soros, was once seen as the most likely candidate for the next Treasury Secretary. His nomination odds had previously led on Polymarket, but after 'American Guardian' Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent's nomination for Treasury Secretary, his odds dropped significantly.
Just as Musk criticized Bessent for 'doing everything as usual,' Bessent is seen as a more traditional figure, and the Associated Press has characterized him as 'a skeptic of cryptocurrencies.'
However, as Trump increasingly supports cryptocurrencies, Bessent's attitude has also changed; he stated in July: 'I am excited about the president's acceptance of cryptocurrencies, I think it aligns very well with the Republican Party, cryptocurrencies represent freedom, and the cryptocurrency economy will continue to exist.'
The latest news is that Bessent may turn to the position of Chairman of the National Economic Council, but this result is also not yet confirmed.
The man behind Tether: Howard Lutnick
Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent while also publicly supporting Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and co-chair of Trump's transition team. As a result, Lutnick's nomination odds once led, but then declined due to rumors of Warsh's imminent ascension.
Lutnick himself is a staunch supporter of cryptocurrencies and can even be considered the most pro-crypto among the major candidates.
Lutnick's Cantor Fitzgerald manages over half of Tether's stablecoin reserves; Lutnick has personally spoken at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville; Lutnick has also advocated for classifying Bitcoin as a commodity similar to gold and oil, and has called for clearer regulation in the cryptocurrency space.
The $700 billion helm: Marc Rowan
Asset management giant Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan's name has only recently been included among potential candidates.
Although Rowan's company focuses on alternative asset investment, he himself has rarely expressed opinions on cryptocurrencies. In 2022, Rowan stated in an interview with Bloomberg that 'the ecosystem built around cryptocurrencies is simply amazing'; however, this year, when asked whether cryptocurrencies would play a role in the future of the U.S. financial system, he said the topic 'was beyond his understanding.'
The Financial Times reports that some Wall Street executives hold a positive attitude towards Rowan's potential nomination, but they also believe it would be difficult for Rowan to give up his position as CEO of Apollo Global Management, which has assets under management of $700 billion.
'Trade War' designer: Robert Lighthizer
Robert Lighthizer has not explicitly expressed his attitude towards cryptocurrencies, but the market should still pay attention to Lighthizer's potential appointment.
Lighthizer served as the former U.S. Trade Representative during Trump's first term and is regarded as a 'hardcore trade protectionist.' Politico even referred to him as the 'designer' of Trump's tariff trade war with China, and the market is generally concerned that Lighthizer's appointment will affect the vitality and stability of global trade activities.
Cryptocurrency legislation proponent: Bill Hagerty
Tennessee Republican Senator Bill Hagerty has a low probability of becoming Treasury Secretary, but he has actively promoted the advancement of cryptocurrency-related legislation as a senator.
In October of this year, Hagerty published a legislative discussion draft aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Investment bank TD Cowen stated in a report that this draft could become the outline for future legislation in 2025.
Hagerty has also expressed support for Trump's efforts to make the U.S. a cryptocurrency hub and discussed the Bitcoin industry in July, stating: 'We need to ensure this happens in the United States.'
The regulatory spring for cryptocurrencies
In summary, the next U.S. Treasury Secretary candidate is expected to emerge soon. From the perspective of potential successors, aside from the unclear stance of Robert Lighthizer, the names currently revealed mostly hold relatively friendly attitudes towards cryptocurrencies.
For the cryptocurrency industry, which has long been troubled by regulation, the coming years may be the most lenient growth environment in the industry's history, and this regulatory spring may be the best opportunity for various parties in the industry to seek development.
