#今日市场观点

The Fear and Greed Index has surged to 90 this week, officially reaching an extreme greed state. Looking back over the past few years, there have been three instances where it reached 90 or even higher: at the end of June 2019, from the end of October 2020 to early February 2021, and at the beginning of March 2024. The first and third instances both quickly surged to 90 and then reversed downward, with the market also quickly turning around. Only during the period from October 2020 to the first quarter of 2021 did the Fear and Greed Index remain in the extreme greed state above 90 for more than ten weeks, with the greed index peaking at 95.

The logic here is: a bear market turning into a bull market leads to a volatile market, and an extreme greed state is unsustainable. However, during the peak of a bull market, the extreme greed state can last a long time until the final emotional exhaustion. Will this time be similar to any of the previous instances?