Author: S4mmy’s Web3 Snippets
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
I will leverage my ten years of experience in traditional finance and business to help you break down complex issues into easily understandable chunks.
After the presidential election results were announced, Bitcoin's price trend sharply rose, with expectations that Trump will take office in January.
Last week, Bitcoin's price rose by 35%, reaching $90,000 before slightly pulling back. Data sourced from Trading View.
The trading volume of Bitcoin-related products has reached $38 billion.
BlackRock's BTC ETF has now surpassed the market value of gold ETFs and silver.
In terms of businesses:
Coinbase's stock rose by 15% in pre-market trading.
MicroStrategy currently holds over $20 billion in Bitcoin and has repurchased $2 billion worth of Bitcoin at market price.
On the government side, there is a proposal suggesting that the U.S. government should purchase 200,000 Bitcoins annually over the next five years, which would have them holding 6% of the total supply by 2030.
Currently, the U.S. holds 213,000 Bitcoins, with government-held Bitcoins accounting for 2.2% of the total supply, but this percentage may increase.
The total market cap of the crypto market has reached a new all-time high of $2.9 trillion—there has never been this much money in the cryptocurrency market.
Market indicators to watch:
Market dynamics have shifted from bear to bull, and investment strategies have changed to mostly assets only going up.
Be aware of objective indicators of market turn signs:
Global liquidity (referenced by M2 supply)
Tracking certain related assets or indicators—M2 supply (3-month lag) is highly correlated with Bitcoin prices.
Data sourced from Zero Hedge.
What does this mean? This is actually a reference indicator for global liquidity. The theories of Lyn Alden and Raoul Pal suggest that liquidity in the market becomes abundant and is invested in assets, so these economic decisions have a 3-month lag. This correlation suggests that if Bitcoin continues to track M2 and does not deviate significantly, we may see Bitcoin prices reach $100,000 by the end of the year.
Fear and Greed Index (69, Nice)
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Source: Coin Glass
When using various indices, be aware of the differences in their methodologies, as some indices are more sensitive than others. Coin Stats provides a relatively reasonable solution that matches the actual market situation.
The downloads of the Coinbase wallet increased by 12% in the past 24 hours.
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Historically, when Coinbase becomes a popular app in the Apple Store or Google Play, it is usually a significant market indicator and worth monitoring.
Currently, Coinbase is ranked 81st in the Apple Store.
Bitcoin's Google search trend index is '79'
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Source: Google Trends This is an indicator worth monitoring because we cannot determine what level the 'new 100' will reach—although the current search volume is 79% of the peak in May 2021, this cycle may see significant growth as more users enter the crypto market.
Financing levels of venture capital in the crypto space
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Source: Defi Llama We can at least see that the overall trend of financing is rising, so when these financing levels approach or exceed the $7 billion level in October 2021, it may be close to the market top. Bitcoin peaked in November 2021, which may mean there will be a few months of lag in the market.
The fund flow in exchanges remains neutral.
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At market tops or bottoms, the net flow of exchanges typically experiences significant fluctuations. Currently, fund flow remains neutral, indicating many investors are satisfied with holding spot or maintaining investments on-chain.
YouTube views related to cryptocurrency
As ordinary traders see Bitcoin and cryptocurrency becoming mainstream in major news channels, crypto channels may become the primary source of information for non-crypto users. Counteracting mainstream media information may also be an effective strategy for selling when approaching the market top—Rolling Stone magazine was a great indicator at the bottom of the NFT bear market.
Other indicators to watch:
The time gap between Bitcoin halving events and historical peaks—the supply shock has been embedded in the market's demand dynamics, and Bitcoin miners also hold large inventories.
Technical analysis indicators like RSI, Pi, and MACD suggest some crypto assets may be oversold or undervalued.
Market value to realized value ratio: a ratio of typically 3.7 indicates the peak of the crypto market cycle. It is necessary to compare market prices with realized value (i.e., the weighted average of the last on-chain transaction price).
Please check out the latest modern market show for a broader discussion.
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I will gradually compile an analysis report to track these indicators and will provide weekly updates for you—please stay tuned.
