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1. Price forecast (short-term, medium-term):
Short-term forecast:
The current price of $91,859.97 is above EMA 20 ($90,286.89), confirming the upward trend. The price is also above EMA 50 ($87,240.44), EMA 100 ($82,395.01), and EMA 200 ($76,601.68), indicating a sustained bullish sentiment on medium-term intervals.
The RSI level (61.7) is in the upper neutral zone, close to overbought. This confirms the predominance of bulls, but with the potential for a local correction before continuing the rise.
The price has consolidated below the level of $92,690 (0 Fibonacci), and the volume profile shows the highest concentration of trades in the range of $88,000–$89,500. This is a key support zone. A breakout of the $92,690 level will open the way for growth with targets:
• $94,461 (-0.27 Fibonacci);
• $96,758 (-0.62);
• $99,252 (-1.0).
If the price corrects below, important support is at $89,409 (0.5 Fibonacci) and EMA 20 ($90,286.89).
Medium-term forecast:
If the price can hold above EMA 20 ($90,286.89) and break resistance at $92,690, this will strengthen the upward momentum. Medium-term targets:
• $96,758 (-0.62);
• $99,252 (-1.0).
In the case of a bearish scenario, breaking $89,409 (0.5 Fibonacci) downwards will open the opportunity for a decline to:
• $88,621 (0.618 Fibonacci);
• $86,127 (1.0 Fibonacci), which also coincides with the lower boundary of the volume profile.
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2. Support and resistance levels:
• Support:
o $90,286.89 (EMA 20) — the nearest dynamic support.
o $89,409 (0.5 Fibonacci) — key support zone.
o $88,621 (0.618 Fibonacci) — a strong support level.
o $86,127 (1.0 Fibonacci) — the lower boundary of the current range.
• Resistance:
o $92,690 (0) — key resistance level.
o $94,461 (-0.27 Fibonacci) — the first target when breaking upwards.
o $96,758 (-0.62 Fibonacci) — important resistance.
o $99,252 (-1.0 Fibonacci) — main medium-term target.
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3. Entry, exit, and stop-loss points for long positions:
Option 1 (aggressive entry):
• Entry: At the current price of $91,859.97, considering holding above EMA 20 ($90,286.89) and the level of $89,409 (0.5 Fibonacci).
• Exit:
o The first target is $92,690 (0).
o The second target is $94,461 (-0.27 Fibonacci).
o If the growth continues, fixation at $96,758 (-0.62) and $99,252 (-1.0).
• Stop-loss: $89,000 — below the level of $89,409 to limit losses.
Option 2 (conservative entry):
• Entry: When retracing to the level of $89,409 (0.5 Fibonacci) or $88,621 (0.618).
• Exit:
o Main targets — $92,690, $94,461, $96,758.
• Stop-loss: $87,800 — below the level of $88,621, to minimize risks.
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4. Entry, exit, and stop-loss points for short positions:
Option 1 (short from resistance):
• Entry: When bouncing from the level of $92,690 (0), if the price cannot hold above.
• Exit:
o The first target is $90,286.89 (EMA 20).
o The second target is $89,409 (0.5 Fibonacci).
• Stop-loss: $93,200 — just above the level of $92,690.
Option 2 (short on support break):
• Entry: When breaking the level of $89,409 (0.5 Fibonacci) downwards.
• Exit:
o Main targets — $88,621 (0.618) and $86,127 (1.0).
• Stop-loss: $90,000 — above the broken level of $89,409.
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5. Long and short scenarios with probability assessment:
🟢 Long scenario:
Probability 70% — The price holds above EMA 20 ($90,286.89), supporting the bullish scenario. A breakout of the $92,690 (0) level will confirm the upward trend with targets up to $99,252.
🛑 Short scenario:
Probability 30% — A bearish scenario is possible when bouncing from $92,690 or breaking down $89,409 (0.5 Fibonacci). Targets: $88,621, $86,127.
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⚠️ Overall conclusion:
#BTC continues to move in a bullish trend, holding above key EMAs (20, 50, 100). A breakout of the $92,690 (0) level will strengthen the momentum and confirm targets up to $96,758 and $99,252. Losing support at $89,409 will lead to a decline to $88,621 and below.
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