American financial institution Morgan Stanley recently released its 2025 Global Strategic Outlook Report. In the report, Morgan Stanley analysts predicted that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to fall to 3.75% by mid-2025, and expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in the first half of 2025. (Preliminary summary: U.S. congressmen strongly recommend: sell Fed gold in exchange for 1 million Bitcoin strategic reserves) (Background supplement: Will U.S. bonds plummet again after Trump wins the election? Analysts: There are both long and short factors, deepening uncertainty ) The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 2-point interest rate cut in September, lowering interest rates to 4.75% to 5%, completing its first interest rate cut since 2020. In November, it announced another 1-digit cut to interest rates to 4.5% to 4.75%, continuing a new cycle of interest rate cuts. U.S. bond prices did not rise but fell. However, after the Federal Reserve officially launched the interest rate cut cycle in September, U.S. bond prices did not rise as expected. In addition to the fact that long-term U.S. bonds have risen sharply in advance due to the expected benefits, expert analysis Possible reasons also include: The U.S. Treasury Department continues to issue debt to finance the government deficit (if Trump returns to the White House, the U.S. fiscal deficit may increase) The Fed attempts to shrink its balance sheet, eliminating a large amount of demand for Treasury bond purchases. Recent economic data show The effectiveness of fighting inflation is still stalemate: Morgan Stanley predicts that the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield will fall to 3.75%. However, according to an earlier report by the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. financial institution Morgan Stanley recently released the 2025 Global Strategic Outlook report. In a report, Morgan Stanley analysts forecast: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to fall to 3.75% by mid-2025 and end at just above 3.5% by the end of next year. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 75 basis points (3 yards) in the first half of 2025. According to MacroMicro data, the latest yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.44%. As the U.S. bond yield continues to rise after the Fed cut interest rates in September, it shows that the market expects the Fed’s interest rate cuts to slow down; however, analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond will The yield will drop to 3.75% in 8 months. Whether it means that the bond market is about to bottom out is worthy of our continued attention. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 64 waves in December. According to Bloomberg, Ed Al-Hussainy, a strategist at Columbia Threadneedle, an American management company, said: The U.S. Treasury market is struggling to find direction, and there are too many uncertainties affecting the market. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell issued a hawkish statement on the 15th, saying that if economic data allows, it is wise to slowly cut interest rates. This has caused the market to predict a rate cut in December. According to CME Fedwatch, the market predicts a 38.1% chance of no interest rate cut in December and a 61.9% chance of a 1-digit rate cut, a far cry from the 82.5% market forecast of a 1-digit rate cut on the 14th. Extended reading: Powell warned that "there is no rush to cut interest rates." Bitcoin fell by $86,600, U.S. stocks collapsed, and October PPI showed that inflation is still sticky. Related reports: Fed's mouthpiece: Trump's election may trigger a "resurgence of inflation." crisis! U.S. bond yields hit a three-month high. The U.S. bond market predicts that inflation will rise again. Will the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cut lay a time bomb? Will U.S. bonds plummet again if Trump wins the election? Analyst: There are both long and short factors, and the uncertainty is deepening. "Are U.S. bonds going to rise? Morgan Stanley report: The "10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield" is expected to fall to 3.75% in mid-2025." This article was first published in Dongzhong BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).