(Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: The international situation under a crisis)
After more than 20 years of Putin's rule, he is now facing the most severe challenge, and the development of this situation contains many variables that worry both China and the international community.
From the messages pouring in from Western media, it is known that the Biden administration has lifted restrictions on weapons aid to Ukraine. This move is tantamount to pouring a bucket of oil on the already raging fire of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Once the Ukrainian army obtains long-range missiles, the depth of Russia will no longer be safe, as these missiles could threaten Russia's military facilities, cities, and more. Moreover, France and the UK also seem ready to follow in America's footsteps, with the UK's 'Storm Shadow' cruise missiles likely to appear on Russian territory in the near future, complicating and endangering Russia's military situation even further.
This series of changes forces the international community to ponder a very serious question: has the current situation reached the conditions for Russia to use nuclear weapons? Looking back at October 2023, then Russian Defense Minister Shoigu clearly pointed out that there are only two conditions for Russia to use atomic bombs: first, if Russia is subjected to a nuclear strike from another country, and second, if the survival of the Russian state is under serious threat. Given the current situation, if the Ukrainian army truly launches long-range missiles at Moscow, then the second condition seems to have a possibility of being met. However, the final decision on whether to use nuclear weapons lies in Putin's hands. This is an extremely difficult choice; using nuclear weapons would trigger a global disaster and could even lead to the outbreak of World War III, but if not used, how should Russia respond to attacks on its homeland? Putin is under unprecedented pressure.
During this period, the long phone call between German Chancellor Scholz and Putin is worth noting. The two spoke for over an hour, and when Scholz talked about the content of the call on November 17 local time, his tone was filled with astonishment. He stated that for more than two years, Putin's view on the war has hardly changed. This phenomenon reflects Putin's steadfast belief. Over the past two years, the Russian military has experienced many difficult moments. The disastrous defeats in Kherson and Rovnoye have severely damaged the Russian army, and the Wagner rebellion has internally impacted Russia's military deployment and stability, while the invasion of Kursk has also shown the pressure on Russia's border defenses. Now, Russia's homeland is about to face long-range missile attacks. However, despite this, Putin still insists on his judgment, which fully indicates that the decision to launch military actions against Ukraine was not made hastily. This war is crucial for Russia's development in the coming decades, and Putin is well aware of the stakes, not daring to waver in the slightest.
A series of situations that both China and the international community are unwilling to see may follow one after another. Firstly, Moscow is likely to be attacked. If Putin does not choose to use nuclear weapons, then Russia will inevitably carry out large-scale retaliatory strikes against Ukraine, which will further escalate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, leading to more casualties and property losses. Secondly, Russia may further leverage North Korea as a powerful ally. North Korea has certain military capabilities, and if it gets involved, the situation on the Korean Peninsula will become more complicated and dangerous, with the tension in the international situation likely to spread further. Furthermore, it cannot be ruled out that Russia will take action against the United States or Europe, increasing the risk of the war expanding further. Especially for countries like Poland, which have shown high concern for the Russia-Ukraine conflict and may seek to profit from the chaos, it is very likely that they will engage in some provocative actions during the turmoil, complicating the entire situation even more. In addition, Belarus cannot remain aloof. Once the situation spirals out of control, Belarus will either passively suffer attacks or actively participate, and Lukashenko will face a difficult choice.
In fact, all these complex and dangerous developments are precisely what Biden and the American arms dealers behind him hope to see. As Biden is about to leave office, he is using his last powers to continuously fuel the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the ultimate goal of preventing the war from stopping. Because the United States is the biggest beneficiary of this war, it allows American arms dealers to make a fortune, reinforces its control over Europe through military aid, and can deplete Russia's strength. From the repeated actions of the United States in sabotaging peace whenever the Russia-Ukraine conflict approaches a ceasefire, it can be seen that from start to finish, the United States is the one most unwilling to end this war. This is a tragedy of international politics and a huge threat to human peace, making one unable to help but sigh heavily for the future of the world. The international community needs to work together to find peaceful ways to resolve conflicts, to avoid further deterioration of the situation; otherwise, the consequences will be unimaginable.