1. Trend Analysis
The MEW/USDT pair is in an upward trend since its recovery in August. This trend is supported by:
The price consistently holding above the 200-period Moving Average (MA), which acts as a dynamic support level. Currently, the MA is at $0.0094, indicating a solid foundation for the bullish sentiment.
A series of higher lows and higher highs, typical in bullish market structures.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels:
Immediate support lies near $0.01, which has been tested multiple times since mid-November. A breakdown below this level could lead to further declines toward the $0.0094 zone, aligned with the 200-MA.
Strong historical support at $0.008, seen as a psychological safety net in case of a significant pullback.
Resistance Levels:
Current resistance is at $0.012, forming the upper boundary of the ascending triangle.
A breakout above $0.012 could pave the way to $0.014, which aligns with the next key resistance zone.
3. RSI Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart stands at 57.05, signaling:
Neutral-to-slightly bullish momentum.
There's room for further upward movement before the asset enters overbought territory (>70). However, if RSI begins to diverge from price action (e.g., RSI trending downward while prices increase), it may signal weakening bullish momentum.
4. MACD Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
The MACD line is above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum, but the histogram bars are narrowing, suggesting the bullish momentum is losing strength.
If the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it may signal a bearish reversal, particularly if accompanied by a price rejection at resistance.
5. Volume Analysis
Volume has shown an uptick during recent upward moves, which validates the price increase. For sustained bullish momentum, higher volume on breakouts above resistance is critical.
If volume declines while the price rises, it could indicate a lack of buyer conviction, increasing the probability of a pullback.
6. Chart Patterns
The price movement from August to November forms an ascending triangle:
The horizontal resistance is around $0.012.
The rising trendline of higher lows is converging toward resistance.
Ascending triangles often precede breakouts, with a bullish bias. A breakout above $0.012 could lead to a measured move toward $0.014–$0.015.
7. Scenario Projections
Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks above $0.012 with strong volume, it could target the next resistance at $0.014, followed by $0.015.
Continued bullish RSI and widening MACD histogram bars would further confirm this scenario.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to break $0.012 and closes below $0.01, a retest of the 200-MA at $0.0094 is likely.
Bearish divergence in RSI and a MACD crossover below the signal line would validate this downside move.
The MEW/USDT chart presents a promising bullish setup with a critical resistance breakout level at $0.012. Traders should closely monitor volume and indicator divergences to confirm the direction of the next major move.