Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Thursday that he was "not in a hurry to cut interest rates" began to ferment on Friday, triggering indiscriminate selling from the US dollar to US Treasury bonds and then to US stocks. $BTC $ETH

In view of this, Federal Reserve officials urgently stepped in to reassure the market.

Boston Fed President Collins said the bank will definitely consider cutting interest rates in December and does not see evidence of rising inflation.

On the same day, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on CNBC that as long as inflation continues to fall toward the central bank's 2% target, interest rates will fall "substantially" in the next 12-18 months.

Based on our understanding of the Federal Reserve, whenever Fed officials appear on CNBC's screen, it means they are nervous about the market's decline. One decline is not terrible, what is terrible is the beginning. Judging from the decline of US stocks on Friday, it is a very classic pattern - the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%, the S&P 500 fell 1.32%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.24% - the S&P 500 fell nearly twice as much as the Dow, and the Nasdaq fell nearly twice as much as the S&P 500. This usually indicates that the decline is "to be continued."

We mentioned in (Wall Street Trading: Being the Enemy of the Masses) that CNBC is the official website of White House officials and the Federal Reserve. During the first round of trade friction between China and the United States, Federal Reserve officials and the U.S. Treasury Secretary often appeared here to appease the market. Because its audience is professional investors who are very close to the market, the effect is most obvious.

From the screen, it was a hasty connection. Behind Goolsby was the backdrop of the Chicago Fed (a temporary venue). During his speech, CNBC deliberately attached a real-time chart of the 10-year US Treasury yield, which was still rising at the time (representing a sell-off in bonds). The atmosphere was somewhat tense.

However, the tone of these officials is no longer as "determined" as in the past, and they still leave room for maneuver, such as Goolsbee's statement that "it is reasonable to slow down the rate cuts at some point."

What forced the Fed to change was Trump and this week's CPI data. Inflation had shown to be sticky, but Trump's policy agenda could raise inflation.

The biggest problem for the Fed isn’t inflation, but Trump’s plans to change the central bank. Trump may be developing a strategy to restructure the Fed and oust Powell before the end of his term, which ends in May 2026, according to people familiar with the matter. With Musk backing the idea, some on Wall Street are nervous about what once seemed a far-fetched possibility.

If Trump influences the Fed, it would be more damaging this time because the Fed is in a delicate position of continuing to reduce inflation while keeping the labor market strong. Any attempt to weaken the Fed's independence would undermine investor confidence in the stock and bond markets.

Report highlights:

First, interpret the memo and a 69-page document circulated by the Trump team, telling you Trump’s “100-day action” and “new tariff plan” - which will have a profound impact on the financial market. Many people will adjust their trading plans after reading this report.

Second, the trend of the US dollar and the RMB is undoubtedly what people are most concerned about. We spent two full days calculating the highest and lowest prices of the RMB in the next 12 months to tell you where the RMB will go once the Trade War 2.0 appears.

Third, interpret the latest report released by Goldman Sachs (China 2025 Outlook: Facing the Wind), which includes views on GDP, interest rate cuts, stock markets, and the RMB, some of which are similar to ours.

· Fourth, Wall Street named 16 Chinese stocks as promising this week, and the three major investment banks were unanimously optimistic about one of them. #市场回调，观望还是上车？ #美国零售销售数据即将公布 #XRP短线上扬 #新币挖矿你参加了吗？ #超级MEME周期？