Written by: Youxin
Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, two founders of a16z, recently expressed several core views on the impact of Trump's re-election on technology and policy:
Marc and Ben emphasized that technology is a top policy issue for the United States in the future, which directly affects the country's competitiveness and global status. They believe that as a technological power, the United States must maintain its technological leadership, otherwise it may fall behind in future global competition, especially in the technological competition with China.
They expressed support for the Trump administration's plan to reduce regulation in the technology sector, believing that excessive regulation would limit innovation capabilities. Especially in the fields of AI and cryptocurrency, excessive regulation could stifle business development. They pointed out that the Trump administration is expected to reduce cumbersome policy regulations and create a more favorable innovation environment for technology companies.
As AI development continues to increase energy demand, Marc and Ben emphasized the need for clean, affordable energy supply to support technological development. The Trump administration’s support for energy innovations such as clean nuclear energy is expected to help the United States meet future technological needs and ensure its dual leadership in energy and technology.
In addition, Ben specifically mentioned that cryptocurrency is an important tool for providing opportunities for economic equality, especially for groups without traditional assets. The Trump administration's potentially more relaxed cryptocurrency policy provides opportunities for the industry to develop and help the United States remain competitive in the fintech field.
The following are the main contents of the conversation:
Marc Andreessen
This is a special show where we're looking back at the post-election situation. Long-time viewers may know that we've had some previous shows about the political situation and shared some of our related activities earlier this year.
The election results are in, and they’re dramatic. We think a lot of important things are about to change, or have already changed, so we wanted to give you some of our thoughts on the situation, especially the impact on technology and small tech companies.
I want to make two statements first. First, as is our custom, we will not discuss non-technical political topics. Many people are very concerned about all aspects of politics, but we will mainly discuss technology, business, and the role of the United States in global technology and business.
Second, we are not speaking for the new administration or anyone in it. We are talking about policies that the new administration has indicated it plans to implement or options that it may pursue.
Now let's look back at this election and the last four years. In my opinion, the last four years have had a greater impact on the tech industry than any time in my lifetime. Let's first look back at what happened in the last four years that led us to this point.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, this has probably been the worst four years of our careers in terms of the relationship between White House policy and technology and even the broader business sector. I want to separate the Biden administration from Congress, and there are a lot of Democrats in Congress who voted correctly and made good policy proposals, but the situation in the White House is not the same. They have done some unprecedented things, such as: bypassing laws, issuing Wells notices to companies, threatening companies, especially targeting the fintech and cryptocurrency sectors, trying to destroy these industries. It's still unclear why, but it's really a tough fight.
For example, cryptocurrency adoption in South Korea is already twice as high as in the United States. This is a critical time to build secure AI, including protecting against AI cyberattacks, dealing with deep fakes, and enabling machine-to-machine payments. But because of the U.S. government’s approach, we are likely to lag behind other countries in these areas. So, this is why we get involved in politics.
Marc Andreessen
Over the past few years, you and I have found that people have their own opinions on various political issues, but not everyone pays attention to technology and economic policies. When we describe these government initiatives to our peers or people in the technology industry, they are often shocked.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, it is shocking. We have a company that provides interest-free loans to low-income people to help them pay for much-needed expenses before payday. Yet, the CFPB threatens to kick them out of the market, which is something we have never heard of. We just can't believe that this is what the Biden administration is doing.
Marc Andreessen
Many people mistakenly believe that the government will abide by its own laws, but this is actually an illusion.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, I once had this illusion.
Marc Andreessen
In fact, if the government or administrative agency decides not to act in accordance with the law, they can send threatening letters and make phone calls to force you to accept conditions that have no legal basis, and "voluntary consent" in this atmosphere is actually forced.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, in this case, small companies cannot fight against the US government, they do not have enough resources. For a rich man like Elon Musk, he does have the ability to deal with it, but for startups, this is almost a fatal blow.
Marc Andreessen
Let's talk about "unbanking," what does that mean, and how does it affect the company?
Ben Horowitz
The cancellation of banking services is a very bad move. It originated from the Obama administration's Choke Point 1.0 project, which was mainly aimed at preventing gun-related or marijuana-related businesses from having bank accounts. Later, they applied this strategy to emerging industries such as cryptocurrency and fintech, causing many companies to be kicked out of the banking system, which is very detrimental to the development of American technology.
Marc Andreessen
For a startup or founder, being rejected by the banking system can have a huge impact. Funds are difficult to access and daily operations are affected. Tech companies rely on external investment, and not having a bank account makes it difficult to get new investment.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, it's especially hard for tech companies. You can't ask employees to pay you in cash, and it's almost impossible for tech companies to operate without bank accounts.
Marc Andreessen
Banking delisting is an inherently illegal, unconstitutional, government-imposed sanction against U.S. citizens and businesses, similar to sanctions against Iran or Russia.
Ben Horowitz
This is completely understandable. It is a measure to deprive people of their freedom.
Marc Andreessen
I want to review these events as they lead directly to the outcome of this week's election. Not everyone is paying attention to these issues, but for those who are, they are very critical. Let's talk about the election results on Tuesday.
Ben Horowitz
Yeah, I was talking to Chris Dixon about this election, and it was very surreal. Less than 24 hours after Trump took office, the stock market had the fifth largest rally in history, and both the stock market and the crypto market went up like crazy, even though there was no economic news. This suggests that the policies of the Biden administration may be worse than I thought. So I think this is good news for tech and startups.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, it feels like the boot on my throat has finally been removed. Interestingly, this feeling seems to deepen every day, and I wake up every morning happier than the day before because I realize that the oppression I used to take for granted is gradually dissipating. There is a term in psychology called "learned helplessness", when you have been under this kind of oppression for a long time, once you are freed, it takes some time for you to realize "Oh my god, my founders and I can actually do those completely legal things without being blocked." I have talked to many founders in the cryptocurrency space, and they feel the same way.
Ben Horowitz
A lot of crypto founders feel like, "We can make these products, right?" And then I wonder, what was stopping you before? Because it wasn't the law, it wasn't the SEC's guidance, it was a completely crazy totalitarian repression, the US government tried to destroy these industries without a clear reason. The most ironic thing about the whole cryptocurrency crackdown is that they claim to be "protecting consumers", but this is obviously a lie because they are suppressing legal and compliant companies, but letting those unreliable "meme coins" run wild. So, this situation is like the song in the movie (Enchanted) (Can You Feel the Brand New Day), I really feel that a brand new day is coming.
Marc Andreessen
There is a term in political theory called "anarchy tyranny", which means that the government allows lawless people to do whatever they want, while torturing law-abiding people.
Ben Horowitz
This is the current state of cryptocurrency.
Marc Andreessen
This is also reflected in some major cities in the United States, such as San Francisco. Violent criminals can run rampant on the streets, but if you want to open an ice cream shop, the government will make it difficult for you.
Ben Horowitz
One of the things that shocked me the most was the Amish vote. You wouldn't normally expect the Amish to vote because they like to keep their lives separate. But they chose to come out and vote for Trump because the Biden administration raided their farms for selling unpasteurized milk. This is nothing compared to serious crime. Crimes like car theft are barely considered a crime anymore in many major cities, but selling unpasteurized milk can lead to an FBI raid. This is more common than I thought, and we're seeing it more in tech.
Marc Andreessen
OK, let's talk about our role and contribution. We were directly involved in some campaigns, notably supporting a super PAC called Fairshake, which is dedicated to supporting the crypto industry in the United States and promoting good crypto policy. How do you think we did?
Ben Horowitz
The results were stunning. The tech industry has a history of getting involved in politics, but this time Fairshake had a 52-6 record in the congressional elections.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, 52-6, and it wasn’t all Republican, we supported a lot of Democratic candidates as long as they were pro-crypto candidates.
Ben Horowitz
In Ohio, for example, Sherrod Brown was leading Bernie Moreno by over 10 points when we started, but was ultimately defeated by Bernie. This shows that people who were hurt by bad policies were truly hurting and were willing to come out and vote for us, while the opposing side had little concrete agenda. We could not get a meeting with the SEC or CFPB, and the Biden administration would not meet with us, and it was completely unclear what their purpose was. It was like a nightmare, and it still feels unbelievable.
Marc Andreessen
Over the past two years, we have had in-depth conversations with many senators and congressmen, and many of them are not even aware of the importance of these issues because they are typically more focused on things like foreign policy.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, for example, foreign policy is probably the 18th most important issue in the minds of legislators. I'm good friends with Maryland Governor Wes Moore, a Democrat, and I explained this to him, and he couldn't believe it.
Marc Andreessen
So are we satisfied with our achievements this year?
Ben Horowitz
It's awesome. I'm so happy for all the people who are trying to build companies and work towards a bigger vision, and now they're freed from that cage and can move forward. It's great.
Marc Andreessen
Do we decide to continue to participate?
Ben Horowitz
Our biggest lesson is that we have to be involved. If no one speaks up for startups, those unreasonable agendas may run rampant. We have been established for 15 years, and whether we like it or not, we have become the leader of "small tech". So, we have a responsibility to stand up because innovation is vital to the country and everyone.
Marc Andreessen
I think so too. We have avoided politics from 2009 when we founded the company until 2021, but politics has obviously had an impact on us. My conclusion is that we have to continue to participate and this has to be a part of us for the long term. We need to speak out for the things we believe in.
Ben Horowitz
Another important lesson is to stay nonpartisan to protect the issues we care about. The candidate who happens to be strong on technology in this presidential race is a Republican, and the policy changes are now evident.
Marc Andreessen
Many people ask why we support Trump. We met with Trump this summer and supported his agenda on technology and business, and he won not only the electoral vote, but also the popular vote, with the largest mandate since Reagan.
Ben Horowitz
What impressed me most was what he said at the dinner, "We must win." Whether it is fintech, cryptocurrency, AI, biotech or defense technology, the United States must win the leading position in these fields, solve the most pressing problems, and become an exporter of technology. Therefore, I expect all his policies will revolve around this goal. Although this sounds obvious, it is not widely accepted in Washington. I think it will affect energy policy related to technologies such as AI and blockchain.
Marc Andreessen
In addition, I want to spend a little time talking about "Why is technology important?" From a more macro perspective, one of the key reasons why we actively participated in this presidential election is that we believe that technology is a top policy issue. Many people will ask, there are many issues in politics, and everyone is also very concerned about it, so is technology really a top policy issue? We firmly believe that technology is indeed.
Ben Horowitz
This is the point that I personally get the most questions about. Many people ask me why I think technology is so important. Aren’t there other things worth paying attention to? My answer is that there are other issues, but in the field I am good at, nothing is more important than technology.
Marc Andreessen
In supporting Trump, we have always believed that technology is a first-tier issue, and its importance is equal to or even greater than other political issues that people care about. The core of technology lies in determining whether the United States is a strong country. If you look back at the 20th century, the United States has won in three aspects: technology, economy, and military, and these aspects complement each other. The countries that lead in technology are often the countries with the strongest economy, and the countries with the strongest technology and economy usually have the strongest military. Especially in modern national security, military power is highly dependent on technology. If a country has the best defense systems, military equipment such as aircraft, tanks and submarines, then this country is likely to be far ahead in other aspects. This is very important because the world is actually a dangerous place.
In the 20th century, the United States had a great geopolitical competition with the Soviet Union that lasted for decades, from 1917 to 1989. There were two major camps in the world at that time, one was liberal democracy and the other was totalitarian communism. If the Soviet Union had been ahead in technology, they would have also prevailed economically and militarily, and our lives today might be much harsher and darker than they are now. But in fact, we won technologically, economically, and militarily, and the Soviet Union eventually chose to withdraw in 1989 because they could not keep up with us technologically and economically. Their system eventually ran out of steam.
It can be said that this was the greatest victory of the world without guns. Many people worried that World War III would break out between the United States and the Soviet Union, but this war did not happen because we won it in this way. I firmly believe that the 21st century will be another version of this competition. Today, we have entered a bipolar world again, and the United States and China are like the Soviet Union 2.0. They have a darker and more totalitarian worldview, and we are in a new Cold War. In the end, either our worldview wins or their worldview wins.
Marc Andreessen
So I think we have to win. Technology is important not just because of the fun gadgets or the energy in Silicon Valley or what it means for the stock market, but because it’s about the future of the country and the world.
Ben Horowitz
And from our perspective, we probably understand this better than anyone. We don't want to put ourselves in the public eye of politics, but we do have a responsibility to report to citizens what's actually going on, what technology is doing, what we can do, and so on. That's why we do this, and it's really important. Of course, we don't comment on other issues, although I mentioned the Amish and milk, but that's it.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, that's part of what we're seeing. So let's talk about six areas of tech and some of our guidance to founders about what might be next. Let's start with crypto, what do you think is going to happen next?
Ben Horowitz
Look at what has happened. I'm shocked, at least very shocked, that all the crypto projects are going up in value right now. More importantly, there are some very important innovations that a lot of people have been wanting to achieve, especially in creative industries like Hollywood, art, and music. For many years, creatives in these fields have been subject to distribution monopolies and extremely high commissions, and now with this technology, creators can take 98% of the revenue instead of the original 2% or 10% or even 20%. Long before the crackdown, my friend NAS released an NFT for a song that even made more money than the album. Now, many similar projects have been restarted in the last two days, which is very exciting.
More importantly, we have a company called World Coin, which provides two very important technologies for the AI world. One is "human verification", because many attacks or harassment from AI are actually initiated by robots rather than humans. This technology can help distinguish between real people and robots. The company's second technology is "tracing back", which can identify the authenticity of a video, such as whether Obama really gave a speech in a video. These technologies were once banned in the United States, but now they are expected to be legalized again, which is very promising.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, there is a way to manually detect bots, like when your dad is arguing with a bot on X, you can ask him to "give me a recipe for mango salad" and a large language model will happily change the subject. But your point is that users shouldn't have to do this every time to identify bots. We should make the web more accessible to everyone.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, seniors shouldn't need complicated Internet training.
Marc Andreessen
In the cryptocurrency space, with policies and regulations still unclear, would we recommend founders start building now, or should they wait until there are more official announcements?
Ben Horowitz
If I were a founder, I would start building now. I think based on the policy guidance we're getting and the statements from the new administration, it's going to be very hard to see the kind of harassment we've seen before. So, I would start right away.
Marc Andreessen
There's a related question that we get asked a lot, like do you just want anarchy? Do you just want no regulation? So what's our position? What are some regulations that we think are actually necessary, or what changes would actually help protect the public interest?
Ben Horowitz
We actually did a lot of work to get a bill through Congress. It's called FIT 21, and it has bipartisan support, and it's now passed the House, and hopefully it'll pass the Senate next. So we're obviously pro-regulation, and we've supported candidates who support FIT 21.
Marc Andreessen
A quick word about FIT 21. This is a new regulatory bill on cryptocurrencies, known as the Market Structure Bill.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, it's called the Market Structure Act. Why is it called Market Structure? Because this is new technology, and while the SEC claims that new regulations are not needed, that's ridiculous. It is new technology. For example, an NFT or token can be a collectible like a Pokémon card, or it can be a stock certificate - what is it? Should it be considered a security or a commodity? The regulation of each is completely different. Since these tokens represent digital property rights in cyberspace, we need to provide some clear guidance for entrepreneurs, consumers, and traders, and the Market Structure Act defines that - what is a commodity and what is a security. If you don't believe us, why is the SEC so opposed to this bill? Regulation is indeed important in these areas because these new things can really cause problems if they are not regulated, just like the stock market.
Marc Andreessen
Amid the political dynamics of Washington, the FIT 21 bill received support from nearly all Republicans in the House of Representatives, with only three opposing it.
Ben Horowitz
There was also support from 71 Democrats.
Marc Andreessen
This was before the election.
Ben Horowitz
These Democrats were very brave, not only did they go against the White House's position, but they supported the bill even when the White House threatened to veto it. The White House had tried to block the bill, but they were powerless after it had such broad bipartisan support. That's a kind of courage we don't see very often, to stand up to the most powerful forces in your own party in Washington and say, "This is not right, and we have to do the right thing for America and its people." That kind of courage is admirable.
Marc Andreessen
This shows that even in the difficult times of the past, there are still people who are working hard to do the right thing. The new administration and the new Congress will re-examine these issues. We 100% support possible regulation because regulation protects people's interests.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, markets require trust, and these cryptocurrency markets are actually one of the most egalitarian markets. This is important, especially if you look at inflation, who does it hurt the most? The poor. For people like us, inflation has a smaller impact because we hold assets like real estate, stocks, etc. The poor usually don't have these assets, but they have cryptocurrencies. This crackdown actually strikes at the fairness of the financial system and deprives equal rights. So the maliciousness of this crackdown goes deeper than what we talked about.
Marc Andreessen
Next, let's talk about AI policy. Cryptocurrency is an area we became actively involved in three years ago, and AI is an area we have started to pay close attention to in the past year. So how do we think about the AI landscape in Washington now?
Ben Horowitz
AI is tricky because it’s new and has a scary name—artificial intelligence is an unfortunate name, and maybe we should change it, but we can’t do anything about it now. It’s just random algorithms.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, things like randomized algorithms, linear algebra, and hyperspace.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, it is complicated. I think there are factions within the tech community right now that are fighting for regulatory monopoly. This is a "civil war" within tech, not external pressure like in the cryptocurrency or fintech sector. The question is how you view AI. The view put forward by the Trump administration is that we have to stay ahead and we need to pay close attention to make sure it does not violate existing laws. But excessive restrictions may hinder our lead. Current AI is mainly mathematical calculations and completes some automated tasks. It is not autonomous and will not improve itself. We can't restrict it prematurely just because something may happen in the future. We may also need to formulate regulations for time travel, and this is the absurdity of the precautionary principle.
In addition, those who push for regulation often do so in order to achieve monopoly. In the current situation where AI companies are already large but barriers to competition are low, some companies are trying to use regulation to exclude competitors, just like the Internet search engine market in 1997, if they could have stopped Google at the time, they might have done so.
Marc Andreessen
In addition, some newly appointed officials see a close connection between AI and energy issues.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, there will likely be giants like Google in the AI field because there are different bottlenecks, such as data bottlenecks and energy bottlenecks. As the demand for energy grows, the power grid will not be able to meet the demand.
Marc Andreessen
I was reminded of a conversation I had this summer with my good friend, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, a very experienced tech and business person whose state has been at the forefront of America's energy renaissance. He told me that the administration's approach to America's energy industry was almost identical to its approach to the tech industry, full of threats and negative pressure.
I mention this because people in the AI field are beginning to realize the severity of the energy bottleneck, and people in the energy field are realizing that they must catch up. For the United States to become a top technological, economic, and military power, we must win in technology and energy.
Ben Horowitz
This doesn’t mean we support dirty energy. We’ve funded portable nuclear and other clean energy projects. We need to allow builders to do more, not continue to restrict them. This will affect AI development, but it will also affect many other areas.
Marc Andreessen
This, incidentally, involves some other geopolitical instability.
Ben Horowitz
Yeah, this situation would lead to weird geopolitical instability, right?
Marc Andreessen
That's why people who follow geopolitics know that this is a major factor facing Europe, especially Germany, right now. In the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Europe is relying on Russian gas and is actually financing the Russian war machine. Europe has to buy Russian gas because they have stopped their own gas development, are shutting down nuclear power plants, and are refusing to adopt new energy solutions. They have trapped themselves in this dilemma and cannot stop financing Russia.
Ben Horowitz
Also, on climate change, if you look at the possible time horizon, many of the solutions are actually technical rather than policy-oriented. We've discussed this a lot with Elon, and he's very insightful on this. The most effective solutions come from technology, not policies that undermine the technical answers. For example, Elon has done a great job on battery walls and solar. There have also been great advances in nuclear fission and safe nuclear fusion, and AI is helping us design these systems and understand atmospheric conditions. Some technologies can even control the amount of heat coming in from the sun, which worries me a little bit, after all, dystopian movies like (Snowpiercer) explore this scenario. Such policies, such as banning natural gas stoves, are not only questionable in their effectiveness, but actually hinder real technological innovation.
Marc Andreessen
In 1971, US President Richard Nixon proposed the "Independence Project" in the hope of achieving energy independence for the United States. He proposed the need to build 1,000 nuclear power plants by the year 2000 and switch the entire power grid to zero-emission nuclear energy. His vision could even completely free the United States from its dependence on fossil fuels and ensure energy security. This was a completely achievable goal. However, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission he established completely blocked the development of nuclear power projects for the next 40 years, resulting in no new nuclear power plants being approved for construction.
It's very frustrating because we have this silver bullet solution and we know what to do, but we're prevented from doing it. Now this administration is offering an opportunity for a nuclear renaissance, and we're very excited about it and we're starting to invest.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, nuclear energy is indeed one of the cleanest energy sources and it is very cheap. Take France for example, they rely entirely on nuclear energy, so they have no energy dependency problem and they don't have to pay a penny to Russia. They use older and less safe technology than today, but they still managed to achieve energy independence.
Marc Andreessen
In addition, although we are not directly engaged in the chip industry, chips are indeed an important strategic issue, especially the United States' dependence on Taiwan and China and related geopolitical issues. In the past six to eight years, Washington has gradually realized the importance of rebuilding chip production in the United States, and the Biden administration's passage of the (CHIP Act) seems to be an "enlightened" step in this direction.
Ben Horowitz
Biden has made a big deal about this, and in fact, it is investing more than $40 billion to support chip manufacturing in the United States.
Marc Andreessen
For example, Intel is one of the main beneficiaries, and they promised to massively expand the chip manufacturing capacity in the United States to match the goals of the (CHIPS Act). However, surprisingly, Intel and other companies have received almost no money so far, and less than 0.4% of the funds have actually been distributed.
Ben Horowitz
Does this mean that Intel promised to build a factory but did not get the funds?
Marc Andreessen
Yes, Intel's financial plan anticipated a $1 billion cash infusion, but it has yet to materialize.
Ben Horowitz
That's a huge funding gap.
Marc Andreessen
An article in the New York Times by Ezra Klein, who is not right-wing either, wrote a column 18 months ago that went into this in depth. He described it as a "bagel liberal" problem, meaning we need to achieve this important national security industrial policy, but we have to give these companies the ability to actually build their projects and get the money to them as quickly as possible without a bunch of other political issues attached to it.
Ben Horowitz
Indeed, (the CHIP bill) is a bill that has already been passed.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, but the situation is that the money has not been released because the agreement has been renegotiated and new political demands have been added. Ezra Klein listed all of these problems in his article, and the things he warned about have come true one by one, but the money has not been released. American companies, and even some foreign companies that promised to invest and build factories in the United States, have been left hanging for a long time. This new administration has an opportunity to re-examine these issues and decide whether they really want to move forward. If they do, they can take more aggressive measures.
Ben Horowitz
What shocked me was that Japan also had similar chip support policies and they had already started building factories. Japan, as a country deeply influenced by the bureaucracy, acted quickly, while we were even slower than Japan in this regard.
Marc Andreessen
This was a purely political decision, choosing to defer the matter to a bunch of other issues.
Ben Horowitz
That's right.
Marc Andreessen
Let's discuss two more areas. The first is defense technology. What are our expectations for the application of modern technology to defense and national security?
Ben Horowitz
Defense technology does have its complexity, and there are two biggest challenges. One is the procurement process. In order to prevent corruption, the procurement rules in the United States have become almost ridiculous. A typical example is the "cost plus" model, which means that the government will pay the actual cost plus a 10% or 20% premium. This leads to the fact that the more companies spend, the greater the benefits, so there is no incentive to improve efficiency, but instead leads to project delays and soaring costs. The second challenge is the complexity of the budget process. The defense and intelligence agencies have limited budgets, they already have cooperation with existing suppliers, and it is very complicated to introduce new technologies.
I think it would be a better approach to start from the perspective of "must win" rather than "avoiding the headlines". Although the specific approach remains to be seen, the biggest hope for this government is that they are willing to talk to us. Even if they don't agree with our views, at least we can have a chance to discuss it, instead of being completely shut out like the previous government.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, another key point in the defense conversation is that we are in a period where technology is rapidly changing the defense landscape. You can see this in Ukraine, where the use of drones in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is an example. A few days ago, I was talking about drones with a legend in the special forces community. He believed that the significance of drone technology in the military field is comparable to the invention of the stirrup. Stirrups allowed the cavalry to stand on the horse and shoot arrows, significantly improving mobility and attack power.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, Genghis Khan comes to mind immediately. His army was almost entirely cavalry, not infantry, most likely because of the stirrup.
Marc Andreessen
There were few defenses against a cavalry charge, and he thought drones would have the same effect. Just 40 people and drones could accomplish almost anything, not just one or two drones, but thousands or even hundreds of thousands of drones. Drones are getting smarter and can fight in swarms. At the same time, they also have defensive capabilities. You can't defend against thousands of drones with $20 million missiles, so we need anti-drone defense technology.
Ben Horowitz
Yes, that’s the potential of technology.
Marc Andreessen
That's right. We're talking about autonomous AI drones, not just in the air, but on the surface, underwater, and on land. Drone technology in all of these areas is advancing rapidly, and both the United States and China recognize that this will completely redefine the way wars are fought. The country that ultimately wins the drone war and the technology war will have the most powerful military.
Ben Horowitz
Or maybe we could have ended up with a draw, which would have been better for us. Maybe in this case a draw is better than a win, but we do need to pick up the pace because we are behind now.
Marc Andreessen
Yes, it is an urgent need. If you talk to the warfighters about these issues, they are fully supportive and ready to go. One of the paradoxes that exists in the U.S. military right now is that many of the frontline soldiers have Chinese drones in their backpacks because they need them when they are in the field. Because China dominates the drone market, our soldiers can only rely on Chinese-made equipment.
Ben Horowitz
What are the risks? Probably too many.
Marc Andreessen
For those who haven’t been paying attention, the biggest risk is that if China dominates the global drone market, every U.S. military unit could be carrying a Chinese-made device that could be converted into a surveillance platform or weapon in the event of a conflict.
Ben Horowitz
Just like pagers used to be.
Marc Andreessen
That's right. This is exactly the kind of technological dependency we don't want in a potential future conflict. And the US policy on this issue is quite short-sighted. For example, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has repeatedly hindered the development of the US drone industry.
Ben Horowitz
In addition, China recently imposed supply chain restrictions on SkyDio (a leading drone company in the United States), and we did not take action. This reflects an attitude: do we win the competition first and then worry about how to be safe and fair, or do everything "safe" and "fair" from the beginning, even if it means we may lose. I think we have been taking the latter path, and this is very dangerous for the country.