Author: Metaquant
Compiled by: TechFlow
Not everyone will be successful during this cycle.
You need to change your mindset and think outside the box. The ranking of the Coinbase app can’t tell you when the market peaks.
Start thinking differently.
“When a metric becomes a target, it’s no longer a good metric.”
In other words, when we set a specific goal, people tend to pursue it blindly and ignore other equally important factors.
Also, I'd say most of the apex signals mentioned on CT probably don't apply this time around.
The peak signals that were obvious in 2017 are no longer obvious in 2021, and the same will be true in 2024-25.
We are entering a period of rapid growth in cryptocurrency adoption, and now all retailers know about cryptocurrencies - some heard of it in 2017, and almost everyone has heard of it in 2021. Don’t mistake signs of adoption for a peak signal. Don’t let past trauma cloud your judgment.
Another thing to note is the shift in influence - now companies like BlackRock control Bitcoin. They are the main ETF provider and they hold shares in each other.
Therefore, they are now able to influence the market sentiment of BTC. They also control many media platforms and can guide public opinion at will.
In other words, if this rally is driven primarily by institutional investment, then traditional retail indicators won’t be as important anymore. The key indicators for this cycle will come from those who haven’t entered the market yet. Yes, it may be retail investors who haven’t yet been exposed to cryptocurrencies – the “late majority” and “laggards” – but you need to think in a bigger picture.
Sovereign Wealth Funds
Imagine that countries with sovereign wealth funds start diversifying their investments in Bitcoin. Some countries already have investments in stocks, so this scenario is possible.
• Saudi Arabia – $400 billion
• Abu Dhabi – $800 billion
• China – $1 trillion
• Norway - $1 trillion
• Australia – $150 billion
• Qatar – $300 billion
• Singapore – US$500 billion
Company Financials
In 2021, we’ve already seen Tesla buy Bitcoin and more recently Reddit reveal some of its cryptocurrency holdings. This trend is just getting started. When you see more and more companies diversifying their assets into cryptocurrencies every day, it may be time to consider reducing risk.
Stock market initial public offering (IPO)
Coinbase’s 2021 IPO was the first major crypto company to go public on the stock market. We may see dozens of crypto IPOs this time, and one of them could mark the apex of the market.
Excessive use of leverage
In the late stages of a bull market, large hedge funds, corporations, and even small countries can become over-leveraged and end up suffering losses, which could be another scenario we see in this cycle.
Re-collateralization crisis
The next Luna-like crash could stem from the rehypothecation space and could spark a bear market. It seems many are overlooking the huge impact a depegging or haircut event could have in this space.
Gold Reserves
The ultimate over-the-top signal could be a government diversifying a portion of its gold reserves into Bitcoin — dubbed “digital gold.”
Some additional small signals
Labor shortages in low-income countries
Another telling sign is a labor shortage in low-income countries, as these workers mapping roads through hivemapper or other DePIN projects can earn $300 to $600 a month, which is more than their usual wages. This happened on a small scale with Axie and StepN last cycle, and it may happen on a larger scale this time around.
Las Vegas Dome
Times Square was dominated by various low-quality memecoin ads in 2021. In this cycle, cryptocurrency ads running on the Las Vegas dome for several weeks will become a similar phenomenon.
Financing round
A relatively reliable signal is to observe the flow of venture capital funds. When the financing round surges and may even exceed the investment amount of traditional finance, it may be an indicator to consider exiting the market.
“Financial markets tend to be unpredictable. Therefore, we must be prepared for different scenarios… The idea that you can accurately predict future developments contradicts the way I view the markets.” – George Soros
