The market is paying close attention to Powell's speech tonight, and pricing suggests that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is over 80%.

ChainCatcher reported that according to Jinshi, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will participate in a dialogue at 04:00 am on November 15 (Friday) Beijing time. This will be his first public speech since the November FOMC meeting, and he may express his views on recent economic data. Investors and economists will pay close attention to his clues about the Fed's December interest rate decision and the policy outlook for 2025. In his recent speech, Powell emphasized the risk balance of the Fed's dual goals - stabilizing inflation and supporting maximum employment. He described the Fed's interest rate cut path as a "normalization" of policy.

Interest rate futures markets on Wednesday implied a more than 80% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting. Policymakers’ September update to their summary of quarterly economic projections showed a median forecast of a 1 percentage point cut in 2024, followed by a 1 percentage point cut in 2025. Officials will update the “dot plot,” which could indicate the path of policy through 2025 and beyond, at their December meeting.