Author: Zeke, Researcher at YBB Capital
1. What doesn't kill me makes me stronger
“I’m back, Bitches!” – This is for all the doubters and those who rejoice in my downfall.
The first president in history to be convicted of a crime, a "tech mogul" who flirted with disaster by claiming that humans would be connected to brain chips and sent to Mars, and a group of disgruntled former allies and enemies are all key figures in the Republican Party's 60th US presidential election. If we start with Trump, the internal dynamics of this team seem fragile, and two core figures - Elon Musk and JD Vance - have repeatedly publicly criticized his policies. Trump himself has often publicly opposed Bitcoin since 2019, calling it a Ponzi scheme and a money laundering tool.
But as the saying goes, "everything is for your own benefit", people and things, as long as there is a point of intersection of interests, differences can be temporarily ignored. For Trump, this is a life-and-death battle, a battle for family honor; for Musk, it is a battle for the future of mankind; for Vance, it is a war to defend the old American dream and the new Silicon Valley. All obstacles converge here: the Democratic Party.
Since the first round of voting in Pennsylvania, the balance of victory and defeat has begun to tilt. The Democratic Party has replaced the baton, summoned all the old politicians in the party, wooed Hollywood stars, invested heavily in media publicity, and tried every means, but still could not prevent Trump's team from winning.
On November 6, the day the voting ended, contrary to the mainstream media's prediction of the closest election results in history and the slight lead in the Harris poll, the Republicans swept seven battleground states and ended the battle in half a day. Trump finally defeated the Democratic Party's fierce offensive with an overwhelming advantage. One of the Republican Party's trump cards is the silent majority - those who are oppressed by illegal immigrants and far-left extremism. These people did not express their opinions on social media, but they cast the right vote. The man wearing the red "Make America Great Again" hat returned to the White House.
In this turbulent US election, I understand everyone's motivation to stand with Trump. But why did he choose Bitcoin? A common explanation is that 13% of the US population owns cryptocurrencies, and Trump needs to cater to these voters. According to his own reasoning, Bitcoin can be used to repay the $35 trillion national debt and replace gold as a new strategic reserve. The first reason sounds far-fetched, and the second reason sounds far-fetched again. To convince myself, I checked a large number of articles and videos by traditional financial bloggers since the 6th. My conclusion is that Bitcoin intersects with the United States led by Trump and Musk in several aspects: energy, opposition to the Federal Reserve, opposition to the Democratic Party, anti-big government ideology, and as a new symbol of the old American dream.
2. Energy
Politicians’ true motivations often hide behind exaggerated justifications. Let’s revisit one of the strangest aspects of Trump’s vision for Bitcoin’s future: In June, Trump posted late at night on Truth Social that “Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against CBDCs… We want all remaining Bitcoins to be made in the USA!!! This will help us dominate the energy sector.”
There are many similar remarks, such as requiring all remaining Bitcoin to be labeled "Made in the USA" and positioning the United States as the capital of crypto. The subtext of these remarks seems to be to show solidarity with supporters, resist the Democratic Party's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, oppose central bank digital currencies, and reject Bitcoin produced in Europe or Asia. However, when we look closely at these remarks, it is clear that whether Bitcoin is labeled "Made in the USA" has little to do with the above points. Trump's real goal is energy development, which can be seen from his mention of energy at the end of the sentence.
Key supporters of Trump's campaign include CEOs of energy transmission companies such as Kelcy Warren of Energy Transfer, Harold Hamm, founder of Continental Resources, Jeff Hildebrand of Hilcorp Energy, Timothy Marvin Dunn of CrownQuest Operating, and Koch Industries, the largest oil group in the United States. Funding from the oil industry is a major source of funding for Trump's re-election campaign, and the Democratic Party's push for renewable energy has greatly hindered the development of these traditional oil industries. Trump's intention is to intensify the use of fossil fuels and use these energy sources to generate electricity, with the goal of increasing drilling and production.
Musk's dream of Mars is also closely related to the energy sector. What are the obstacles to landing on Mars? The first is energy, followed by rocket launch costs, AI robots and communication systems. These four aspects correspond to Musk's careers: Tesla electric cars, SpaceX, Tesla robots and Starlink. However, the biggest obstacle to Mars immigration has now become the government, and most of the car donations behind the Democratic Party come from traditional automakers such as GM and Ford. The Democratic Party pushes for clean energy policies and electric vehicle subsidies, which naturally exclude Tesla. The US moon landing program launched during Trump's first term awarded a $146 million order to SpaceX. However, after Biden took office, NASA reallocated the contract, giving SpaceX only $9.4 million, and most of it to Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin. More importantly, the Democratic government has been putting pressure on SpaceX through environmental regulations, with ridiculous reasons, such as rockets that may harm marine life and ecosystems.
Starlink played a vital role in the Ukrainian war, but the service fee has not been paid to this day. Musk, who originally planned to shut down Starlink in Ukraine, continued to provide services under pressure from the Democrats.
Ultimately, Trump is Musk's only viable option. Energy policy and space contracts are likely to be key bargaining chips in this cooperation. In addition to reviving fossil fuel vehicles, everything is consistent with Trump's anti-extreme environmental policies, making the two a natural match.
Furthermore, energy plays a vital role in the development of AI. I discussed in last year's article (Preview of Potential Tracks: Decentralized AI Computing Market) that computing power is the oil of the future. If this oil is divided into two parts, electricity and chips, "Tokens per dollar per watt" represents the productivity of the future. Developing the energy industry will ensure that the United States is always at the forefront of AI technology, which is consistent with the needs of the new forces in Silicon Valley behind Vance. Therefore, Bitcoin mining is just a smokescreen for Trump. The label of "Made in the USA" and the boycott of CBDC or foreign mining are not essentially connected. Trump may not fully understand Bitcoin, nor does he need to understand it, as long as he knows that people like it and it consumes energy.
3. Anti-Fed
Mark Zuckerberg, who was once a die-hard fan of the Democratic Party, immediately blocked Trump's social media account after Trump left office to show his loyalty. Trump has repeatedly stated that if he has the opportunity to be re-elected, he will put Zuckerberg in jail. However, this blind loyalty did not lead the Democratic Party to make any compromises on the Libra issue. Zuckerberg may not realize that this is actually a declaration of war on the Federal Reserve, the largest private bank in the United States. The collapse of Meta caused its stock price to plummet and the Metaverse became a bubble, but compared with previous politicians, Zuckerberg is still lucky.
Historically, only two presidents have tried to challenge the Fed: Lincoln, who tried to take back the right to mint coins, and Kennedy, who wanted to issue a silver-backed currency. Both ended in tragedy. But Musk and Trump are still determined to win. During his first term, Trump publicly expressed his dissatisfaction with the Fed's interest rate hikes, criticizing the Fed's independence and inability to influence monetary policy. In his second term, he hoped to directly fire Fed Chairman Powell. Musk tried to use Bitcoin to pay for Tesla in the last round of the crypto cycle, but later claimed that Bitcoin was too damaging to the environment and suspended its use. Of course, I prefer to believe that the main intention of using Bitcoin is to challenge the US dollar, and the real reason for the suspension may have nothing to do with environmental issues.
The common thread between Trump, Musk, and Bitcoin is the “no pain, no gain” mentality. Trump is the boldest politician, Musk is the boldest entrepreneur, and Bitcoin is the boldest currency. Perhaps there is nothing in this world that they are not willing to challenge. On November 8, a senator sent a tweet, and Musk responded with a ? emoji to express his full support. “The Executive Branch should be led by the President. This is the design of the Constitution.” He also added the hashtag #EndtheFed, adding: “The Federal Reserve is one of many examples of how we have deviated from the Constitution. This is another reason why we should #EndtheFed.”
Let's look at Trump's promises about Bitcoin: using Bitcoin to pay off the national debt, building a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, and eventually surpassing gold. Anyone who knows a little arithmetic knows that this is ridiculous. The US government's Bitcoin accounts for only 1% of the total supply, not even enough to pay a week's interest on the national debt. But what is the message behind this? Trump wants to seize monetary power, and Bitcoin, as the leading mocker of fiat currency, is the perfect weapon for his anti-Fed campaign. By leveraging working-class sentiment and influence over the Democratic Party, Trump can challenge the Fed. If he succeeds in bringing down the Fed, he will not only be the most powerful US president in decades, but the only president in US history to hold total control.
4. Oppose big government
I will skip the anti-Democratic part here, as it is described in more detail in Wang Chao's (33 Years of Crypto War: From Biden to Biden). Let's focus on the concept of big government vs. small government, especially in relation to the big government ideology of the Democratic Party and the small government stance of the Republican Party.
Thomas Jefferson once set a rule for the young United States: "The best government is the smallest government." This small government concept has long been the core political position of the Republican Party, advocating low taxes, minimal regulation, and emphasizing personal freedom and market mechanisms. In contrast, the Democratic Party tends to favor big government, high taxes, and strong regulation, emphasizing social equity and public services. The anarchism and small government ideals advocated by cryptocurrencies are actually very similar. Both tend to favor free markets and personal freedom, but small government supporters believe that maintaining a minimal government can maintain these freedoms.
As cryptocurrencies merge with the United States, we may see the Republican Party push the on-chain landscape toward small government and once again attack the Democratic Party. Over the past four years, the Democratic Party has evolved into a force that exploits American citizens in the name of extreme left ideology, leading to an unprecedented moral hijacking of the United States. We have witnessed that government intervention, which was supposed to address social injustice, has evolved into a thorough endorsement of extreme movements: rainbow flags, looting, drug use, illegal immigration, and other phenomena are commonplace. Immigrants even receive hotel accommodations and shopping cards, and their welfare benefits are even better than those of citizens. The Democratic Party's goal is clear: by exploiting and brainwashing citizens, their goal is to maintain power. Even if they lose some votes from legal citizens, they can replace them with votes from illegal immigrants and extreme leftists.
Trump, on the other hand, is committed to fostering a compliant crypto world that allows citizens to participate in financial activities more efficiently and freely. The election fraud he despises may eventually be solved through blockchain, allowing the Republican Party to win back the lost four years and consolidate its position in 2028.
5. A new symbol of the old American dream
The representative of the so-called "New American Dream" is Kamala Harris, the first female vice president of the United States and a representative of the immigrant elite. She has African and South Asian ancestry and fully meets the requirements of the Democratic Party's "political correctness". Harris embodies the "American Dream" of immigrants in the era of American multiculturalism and represents an open and inclusive cultural ideology. The representative of the "Old American Dream" is JD Vance, who was born in the working class of the "Rust Belt" and later became a soldier, writer and businessman. He is also a potential vice presidential candidate and a leader of the New Silicon Valley movement. Vance represents the early American ideal that anyone can get rich through hard work, courage, creativity and determination. This is a belief in democracy, rights, freedom, opportunity and equality.
As Trump's running mate, Vance's credentials fit perfectly with Trump's. Bitcoin, or cryptocurrency, is perfectly intertwined with the "old American dream". The essence of proof of work (PoW) is that the more you put in, the more you get out. In the blockchain world, miners are completely equal. This vision of the American dream is especially important in developing countries, where people can use stablecoins or even Bitcoin for transfers and payments, bypassing banks and unreliable government-backed currencies. They can also find freedom and opportunities through DeFi, or on-chain businesses. If Trump keeps his promises, Web3 may become the "American dream" for the global crypto community.
6. Conclusion
Satoshi Nakamoto once wrote to BM (founder of EOS), saying "If you don't believe me, or can't understand me, then I don't have time to convince you, sorry." We have passed the era when we need to explain what Bitcoin is and whether it is a Ponzi scheme. 16 years have passed, and it has never failed. It is there, on the other side of the Atlantic, right next to you and me.
I don’t mind the Americanization of Bitcoin. Any country, institution or individual can buy Bitcoin - cryptocurrency is essentially freedom. Controlling the token is not the same as controlling the network. Everything that happens on the Bitcoin blockchain remains decentralized.
However, I do not like the constant intertwining of crypto and politics. First, I do not fully understand American politics. Second, as an industry that blends finance and emerging crypto, we have spent much of the past year discussing politics, which is not normal for any growing tech industry. Bitcoin and the Republican Party are on the same side in this election and benefit from each other, but the broader cryptocurrency space is not.
