Preface:
As Trump swept the U.S. political arena with his historic victory, the wind reversed overnight and Bitcoin hit a new all-time high. However, within the crypto world, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are fundamentally two different worlds.
In the name of Build, the “value coin” known as the cornerstone of the crypto world is facing unprecedented application difficulties and FUD. The meme craze has struck again, which makes people rethink again: In the bull market that is visible to the naked eye, should we continue to Do you believe value coins, or memes, are the real future?
Starting from the end of Qingping
Small fortune’s value discovery, fueled by liquidity
Before discussing memes, it is necessary to briefly review the development history of memes in the crypto world. From a time perspective, it can be roughly divided as follows:
From the above development history, there are several important trends that can be briefly summarized:
Liquidity expansion is the basis: memes were born in bull markets, and currency price explosions are often accompanied by liquidity expansion in the US dollar.
Celebrity effect is the best helper: Whether it is the popularity of picture memes such as Shiba Inu Coin or Dogecoin, it is helped by celebrity effect, such as Musk.
Memes and spiritual appeals echo each other from a distance: from zoo pictures, Internet memes, to AI memes, they all imply the most communicable spirit of the times at the time, and their inherent emotional appeals are becoming increasingly rich.
Rapidly shortening the life cycle: With the rise of meme fair launch platforms such as Pump.fun, currency issuance has entered the minute level, and the life cycle has also entered the hour level.
The era of the rise of Dogecoin is the era of the post-90s generation, which has basically entered the era of smart phones, and the communication methods of pictures and Emoji have become popular; entering 2020, entering the era of the post-00s generation, online memes have become basic , but compared to the post-90s generation, depression and lying down seem to be more common, but they are also more anti-authority and anti-elite. They like funny and absurd things, such as PEPE; entering 2024, AI will be the most cutting-edge today technology and the most disruptive technology, the post-00s generation is still the main force of this wave. While the post-80s generation is still questioning the future of AI, the post-00s generation has begun to use AI to make money. They seem to be the most forward-looking in this era. Together with leading technology leaders, they quickly accepted the changes.
With the rise of meme fair launch platforms like Pump.fun, 5k-10k meme tokens are created every day. Statistics from October show that only 1.4% of users made more than $1,000, and more than 80% lost money.
At this point in time, there are many discussions on the origin of memes and the market. The corresponding footholds and theoretical explanations can be found from culture, the emotions of the times, communication effects, etc. However, no matter which perspective, a certain conclusion is that memes are not suitable for evaluating their value from practical perspectives such as utility and practicality. This is a narrow understanding of value itself. Under the general trend of currency over-issuance and irreversibility, The times have chosen memes, but the blockchain is the best soil to carry them.
Memes are rooted in the spiritual aspirations and new value standards of the younger generation. They are disdainful of value standards in the sense of grand narratives. They tend to experience happiness in small deterministic things and use concrete humor to counteract them. Abstract majesty. A meme can bring about a resonance. For the younger generation, this is not only being seen, but also a victory in life. This victory bursts out huge value in the blockchain world. The so-called rationality and ideals are synonymous with being outdated. Entertainment to death and consumption first, they have no concept of crypto shame and crypto casino. Fundamentally, for them, memes are a part of daily life and another form of game.
However, although the meme was created by the younger generation, it is the capital contribution of the older generation that turned it into a target for investment speculation, because for the 60s, 70s and 80s, their most accustomed posture is: they do not understand but It does not hinder cutting leeks.
Value coins collapse due to falsification of reality
A plunge is not terrible, but if it is falsified, you may be unable to recover.
For most old people who have experienced multiple cycles in the currency circle, plummets are quite common and not terrible. Even Bitcoin has plummets, but people lose faith in value coins/VC coins because they are not staged. A sharp drop and a sharp rise, or bilateral fluctuations after falling and rising again, but for the wider retail investor group, when they get the chips, they are already at the top of Mount Everest of the currency price, watching it gradually enter the sea level. , until it fell into the Mariana Trench.
The current status quo is that the tokens of value coins have become products, and no one cares about the real products. Regarding value coins with low circulation and high market capitalization, there are as many market analysis discussions as memes. There are many reasons for this situation: overvaluation caused by bull-bear conversion; chip allocation under crypto compliance; insufficient ecosystem strength. Balanced, unhealthy, etc.
In essence, the development of value coins is the result of multiple reasons, including narrative failure due to lack of application, wealth effects due to distribution, and ecological failure caused by hypocritical elites. For most altcoins, the concept of dancing and micro-innovation at the protocol level once became fashionable. From the so-called chain abstraction, Layer2, Layer3, and intention center, new terms emerge in endlessly. However, the amount of interaction proves everything. In the absence of practical application scenarios Under this situation, the user's usage needs are neither rigid nor irreplaceable. Therefore, the data of the project can only rely on project incentives, such as airdrops, points, etc. If the incentive mechanism itself is unfair and has rat-tank behavior, it will eventually evolve into the tokens that Murad talked about and become the final product. The product itself was ignored.
As shown below, in a value currency under the mainstream narrative logic of the industry, each participant has different demands around the wealth effect. Unfortunately, each demand is not centered around the true value of the project itself, or let us put it more cruelly: the so-called Narrative is just a fig leaf for cutting leeks, because all narratives are too easy to be falsified in a short period of time, and most of the ones that are proven are matryoshka dolls or Pond's.
There are hundreds of public chains, hundreds of L2s, hundreds of cross-chain bridges, thousands of Defi, and countless narrative concepts. In the maze of concepts, the seemingly seamless logical building cannot stand. A simple blow to reality. If there is no widespread spillover of external liquidity and homogeneous narrative competition, the situation will be even worse.
Many project parties do not know that the so-called hypocritical elitist mentality is the last straw for value coins to be defeated. Many project parties are both responsible and independent; while despising electronic beggars, they secretly build rat warehouses, shouting for subversion and revolution. , innovation, but what he holds in his hand is a sickle, a scythe and a bigger sickle.
You stare into the abyss, and the abyss is also staring at you. Use grand narrative value to attract capital and users, and use unfair means to distribute wealth. Once the former is falsified, the latter will definitely fall to the bottom. However, the value of coins The bottom may be longer than anyone imagines.
Memes and the future of value coins
History will repeat itself, but not simply
Victory is always written by the winner, and the confirmation of value has the greatest consensus at the moment when the value is realized. The main idea of the crypto world is still Tokenization. Before a Token is released, it does not exist as a value currency or a meme currency. There is essentially no difference. It is only reflected in the difference in the implementation path.
The advantage of value coins is that there is a complete set of methodology that can be followed to implement from cold start to positive currency price cycle. Relatively speaking, the certainty of success is high, but the upper limit is also quite limited. From the ultimate goal, it solves the utility needs of users.
The advantage of meme currency is that although it does not have a completely replicable implementation path (compared to value coins) and is relatively random, its upper limit is very high, and the operation of meme currency is now more capitalized and mature. The degree is no worse than the value currency. From the ultimate goal, it solves the user's appeal for community identity.
Not making money for users is the original sin of the project, not whether it has value. In the long run, we need to realize that the blockchain world has diverse values. Whether it is FUD on value coins or the pursuit of memes, it does not necessarily mean which of the two forms should survive. These two oppositions are just The competition for the right to speak on behalf of different capitals does not represent the establishment of reality. For most of the market, one of the simplest and simplest truths is: in a fair environment, projects that can make people make money are valuable projects. This is almost the only criterion.
Therefore, regarding the future of value coins and meme coins, only two questions need to be answered: who can be relatively fair, and who has a better profit-loss ratio.
Fairness depends on the improvement of the system; the profit-loss ratio depends on narrative development and liquidity. The two together determine the future cycle rotation and the future of encryption.
After Trump came to power, we can be sure that the institutional environment has improved with a high probability, but it is still unknown whether this improvement will be conducive to reversing the current bad industrial form of value coins;
In terms of profit-loss ratio, the source of whether the narrative development of value coins can continue lies in whether new entrants increase in large quantities. However, if the hypothesis cannot be deeply integrated with real needs, falsification will still come quickly. The worst thing is that this process is very difficult. It is difficult to accelerate. Blockchain will not become the world's mainstream overnight, but in terms of liquidity, value coins seem to have more advantages, because more general investment institutions still tend to inject funds into the value currency track, but there is no narrative logic. With substantial improvement, not enough leeks is turning from a joke into a reality.
If we look at the future from this perspective, system improvement, slow narrative progress, and liquidity overflow are still the basic situations of value coins. Then its most likely state is not to die and return to zero, just like China's real estate, where high valuations collapse. In this state, a long period of elimination and adjustment will be ushered in, and real value coins will be born in the big waves in the middle.
For memes, an era in which a hundred flowers bloom is coming. Stronger capital operations and exchange traffic support have accelerated the trend for memes. But for retail investors, it does not mean that it is easier to make money, but as long as the wealth effect If it continues to exist, most of the market will still be willing to believe: I will definitely be able to succeed in PVP this time.
Sustainability will only exist if money-making occurs in a fair environment. Each cycle has a different narrative, and countless value coins and meme coins have died. The real commonality between value coins and meme coins that remain is not the so-called competition for value orthodoxy, but who wins the broader society. recognition and support from group users.
If we want to make a final conclusion, it must be: there is no eternal universal value in the world, and there is no distinction between value coins and meme coins. From a historical perspective, it is always those who can continue to gain community recognition and Only projects that users trust can last for a long time. This is the real value.
Money never sleeps, new stories are on the way, and this time I hope you can win!
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reprinted with permission from: (Foresight News)
Original author: IceFrog
"The weakness of "value coins" and the rise of "meme coins"! Who is the big winner in this new bull market? "This article was first published in "CryptoCity"
