Many retail investors ask about the price they see. I have mentioned more than once that predicting short-term prices is basically akin to fortune-telling, but I can briefly discuss two probabilities that I see.

1. On-chain data expert @Murphychen888 conducted a very insightful on-chain data analysis. I will directly relay it; he analyzed all the on-chain data across different ranges, mainly focusing on their holding costs, retention, and profits, calculating the profit ratio of all holders in different ranges, which is the MVRV data. He concluded that historically, whenever the MVRV reaches above 3, it enters the bubble period, followed by a large-scale retracement. We are not there yet in this round, but if there is another explosive surge, it will reach the peak of this market cycle and enter consolidation.

From the perspectives of retail investors, history, and on-chain data, the analysis is very rigorous. I believe this data analysis represents a typical classic blockchain model, where prices resonate with the psychology of retail investors, reaching a peak driven by emotions, and collapsing when profits are taken and investors rush to exit. Under this model, I believe it will not exceed $150,000, so during the next surge, there should be many retail investors and small whales (supportive holders from the early days) cashing out for profit, leading to price pressure and consolidation.

2. However, merely analyzing on-chain data is not enough. The second trend is that ETF holdings have surpassed Satoshi Nakamoto. This is a representative event that indicates the will of new money and institutions. As I mentioned before, the investments of institutions, especially sovereign wealth funds, are completely different from those of retail investors. They are rarely driven by emotions or profits. Once a decision is made, the entire price range and tolerance are several times that of retail investors. They value asset preservation and stability. Therefore, on-chain data is relatively difficult to reflect the situation of ETFs because the profits from ETFs are made off-chain in the stock market. So from the institutional perspective, what we see is a potential bulk investment product that might replace gold. I believe that next year, Bitcoin will reach at least a quarter of gold's market value, with the price going to around $200,000. This has little to do with whether retail investors buy or sell, and I believe this is the largest new source of capital for this wave, after all, the number of blockchain people who can maneuver wallets is much smaller compared to the vast number of stock market investors.

This is roughly two high-probability events for your reference. #BTC连续破新高，你看到多少？ Follow and like to stay on track.