Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser2010)
At around 9 a.m. on November 11, according to OKX market data, BTC's price briefly surged to around $81,733, meaning Bitcoin has officially stabilized above the $81,000 mark, entering the coveted '80,000 era' for many, with only about a 23% increase remaining to reach the '100,000 dollar mark.' Under the stimulus of numerous favorable factors such as Trump's successful election, continuous inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, Bitcoin has once again embarked on its 'starry sea journey.'
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize relevant market opinions in this article for reader reference.
National level: The situation is very positive; Trump's ascent has turned Bitcoin into a strategic reserve.
In a previous article (Bitcoin sets a new all-time high, is $75,000 the starting point for a bull market?), we mentioned that Trump's election could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market in several ways.
Cryptocurrency regulatory attitudes;
CBDC digital dollar establishment;
Bitcoin strategic reserve;
Nominations for key positions in various government departments, including the SEC chair;
Trends in U.S. political and economic policies.
In the short term, the most significant impact is from Bitcoin's strategic reserve; in the long term, crypto regulation and key government positions, including the SEC chair, will continue to influence the U.S. and the world's attitude toward the cryptocurrency industry. According to multiple agencies and industry analysts, as Bitcoin prices continue to rise, Bitcoin's national strategic reserves may become the choice of more sovereign nations.
Trump's election proposes to include BTC in the national strategic reserve: Positive for BTC.
With Trump's election, the sentiment in the global cryptocurrency market has changed significantly. Many experts generally believe that Trump's policy of embracing BTC will positively affect BTC and is expected to promote its adoption as a national strategic reserve.
Under Trump's leadership, the crypto market will return to favoring BTC's value storage attributes. Many experts believe that Trump's election undoubtedly injects a boost into the cryptocurrency market led by BTC.
Bitcoin Magazine CEO: A sovereign nation is quietly increasing its Bitcoin holdings and has become one of the top five holders.
Bitcoin Magazine CEO, one of Trump's campaign's crypto advisors, David Bailey recently discussed the possibility of an unnamed sovereign nation quietly purchasing Bitcoin. He said, 'At least one country has been actively buying Bitcoin and is now among the top five holders. We hope to hear from them soon.'
Some community users believe that Qatar and Saudi Arabia may be the unnamed countries referred to by Bailey, while he stated that it is not China, Ukraine, the UK, Finland, or Georgia.
German parliament member Joana Cotar: If the U.S. adopts BTC as a strategic reserve, European countries will all experience FOMO.
According to Bitcoin Magazine, German parliament member Joana Cotar stated, 'If the U.S. purchases Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, then I think all European countries will experience FOMO.'
Fundstrat co-founder: BTC could reach $100,000 this year and become a treasury reserve asset to offset the U.S. deficit.
Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat, stated in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin could become a treasury reserve asset to help offset the U.S. deficit, and Bitcoin could still reach $100,000 this year, leaving plenty of room for growth.
National level Bitcoin holders: El Salvador and Bhutan.
According to The Bitcoin Office of El Salvador, the country is still continuously purchasing 1 BTC daily. As of November 11, its Bitcoin holdings reached 5,930.77 BTC, with a market value of approximately $480 million.
At the same time, the Kingdom of Bhutan is actively mining Bitcoin, with relevant data indicating that Bhutan's weekly Bitcoin mining output is about 55 to 75 BTC, valued at approximately $3.6 million to $4.9 million. Previously, when Bitcoin's price surged to $71,000 on October 29, they transferred 929 BTC to Binance, equivalent to $66.12 million. Currently, according to data from Arkham, the Kingdom of Bhutan holds 12,562 BTC (valued at about $1.02 billion).
Institutional level: Investor interest is growing, and industry giants continue to accumulate.
Meanwhile, as news of Trump's election spreads further, institutional investor interest is also steadily increasing, forming the primary driving force behind Bitcoin's price breakthrough to new highs.
Bloomberg ETF analyst: Possibly due to the Trump effect, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.4 billion on November 7.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that due to the Trump effect, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.4 billion in funds on November 7, with BlackRock's IBIT attracting $1.1 billion. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $6.7 billion last month and have raised $25.5 billion year-to-date, nearing 93% of the goal of surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million Bitcoin.
The president of The ETF Store: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF assets have surpassed its gold ETF.
According to The ETF Store president Nate Geraci, last Friday, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) assets surpassed its iShares Gold ETF (IAU), achieving this in just 10 months. The iShares Gold ETF (IAU) was launched by BlackRock in January 2005.
BTC ETF > Gold ETF
MicroStrategy founder: Will continue to accumulate BTC.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor hinted at continuing to accumulate BTC, stating, 'I think we need more 'green dots' on the saylortracker website.' (Note: The website tracks MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchase records, with green dots indicating BTC purchasing operations.)
Earlier reports indicated that MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have exceeded $10 billion in unrealized gains.
VanEck CEO: The potential price of BTC is $300,000 each.
VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck previously stated that Bitcoin would set a new all-time high on Friday, after which BTC's price first broke through $77,000.
When asked if he thought Bitcoin would reach $100,000, he stated: 'Bitcoin will set a new all-time high—if it sets a new all-time high today, I believe it will rise further. My basic assumption is that Bitcoin's overall value will eventually be half of all outstanding gold value, so its potential price is about $300,000. Individual investors are indeed flooding into Bitcoin ETFs.'
Gemini co-founder: Bitcoin's rise to $80,000 is driven by stable institutional ETF demand, rather than retail FOMO.
Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss stated that Bitcoin reaching $80,000 is primarily driven by sustained institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs, rather than retail investor activity. He believes that this 'sticky' demand from institutional investors is a sign of long-term bullish sentiment and that the current market cycle is still in its early stages.
Winklevoss said: 'The road to Bitcoin reaching $80,000 is paved by stable ETF demand. It is not retail FOMO. There is no fanfare. People are buying ETFs, not selling them. This is sticky HODL-style capital. The bottom price continues to rise; we just won the coin toss, but the game hasn't truly started yet.'
Bitwise CEO: The rise in Bitcoin's price will not trigger concerns similar to overvaluation in stocks.
Bitwise Invest CEO Hunter Horsley stated that Bitcoin set a new all-time high this week but did not trigger investor concerns about overvaluation like stocks do. 'Bitcoin is different,' he explained. 'When a company's stock 'rises, its price-to-earnings ratio also increases, and at some point, people will say, 'This is overvalued,' and then become less interested until the price drops.'
Horsley added that in the absence of similar financial performance metrics, 'when Bitcoin's price rises, people will think it is more likely to succeed and thus more valuable, so it is likely to rise further.'
CoinShares research director: BTC rising to $100,000 requires only about a 33% increase, which accounts for only 10% of the gold market share.
CoinShares research director James Butterfill previously expressed that four catalysts will drive future Bitcoin price increases: changes in the SEC leadership, cryptocurrency-friendly regulation, further adoption of cryptocurrencies by large companies, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. James Butterfill further explained that Bitcoin rising to $100,000 means there is still 33% growth potential, and a $100,000 Bitcoin 'doesn't sound so unreasonable,' given that its market cap would only account for '10% of the gold market share.' Coupled with Trump's victory and the Republican control of the Senate, it may be easier to push for 'expected relaxing of the regulatory framework,' so it should be achievable.
Galaxy research director: Bitcoin set multiple all-time highs this week but did not show any signs of 'overheating.'
Bitcoin has set multiple all-time highs but has not shown any signs of 'overheating.' Multiple analysts point out that some fundamental factors suggest Bitcoin may rise further. 'From a fundamental perspective, the market does not appear to be overheating,' said Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, in a market report. Nansen analyst Aurelie Barthere expressed a similar view. 'Bitcoin breaking historical highs under high trading volume is a clear signal of sustained positive momentum following the elections.'
Japanese listed company Metaplanet's stock price has risen over 1000% this year, becoming the best-performing Japanese stock.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet's CEO Simon Gerovich previously stated that the company's adoption of Bitcoin strategies has led to its stock price rising about 1,017% year-to-date, making it the best-performing Japanese stock in 2024. The company launched its Bitcoin plan in April and has now become Asia's second-largest holder of Bitcoin, following Boya Interactive. According to Yahoo Finance data, its stock price has increased by 740% in six months, rising from $190 in April to $1,596 at Friday's close.
Standard Chartered: Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of this year after Trump's victory.
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, previously stated that after Trump's victory, Bitcoin's price will reach $125,000 by the end of this year and will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. This prediction echoes estimates made earlier this month by analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein.
It is evident that as numerous TradFi asset management giants, publicly listed companies, and Bitcoin reserve strategists enter the fray, their positions become intertwined with the cryptocurrency industry.
Industry insiders analyze: Risks still exist, holding remains the best option.
Despite the market's greed index rising rapidly, amid an overly enthusiastic environment and FOMO, many crypto analysts and industry builders have offered differing views. Below is a representative overview of opinions.
CZ: As Bitcoin continues to set historical highs, investors should manage risks appropriately.
CZ previously stated that as Bitcoin continues to set historical highs, investors also need to manage risks appropriately. There will be many lows (and highs) in the future; ensure you can handle them, control your greed, and do not put all your eggs in one basket.
CryptoQuant CEO: Advises Bitcoin holders to gradually sell and warns about the risks of going all-in.
Crypto analysis platform CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated last Thursday that new investors often hold Bitcoin during bear markets and after experiencing losses, they typically hand it over when the market stabilizes about two years later. He believes that now is the time for this transition, suggesting Bitcoin could rise another 30-40% from current levels, but it will not replicate the 368% increase from $16,000. He advises investors to consider gradually selling rather than continuing to 'buy the dip.'
On November 10, possibly stimulated by Bitcoin's new high price, he stated again: 'Bitcoin has just entered the price discovery phase.' At the same time, he also warned today that Bitcoin's price at the end of the year might be slightly below $59,000, and pointed out that the overheating of the futures market is one of the main reasons for a potential drop at the end of the year.
Is Bitcoin entering the value discovery phase?
Presto Research analyst: $100,000 will be the next 'interest level' for Bitcoin.
Presto Research investment analyst Min Jung stated that traders are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's prospects, 'In the short term, due to the symbolic nature of numbers and digital changes, $100k will become the next major interest level. The U.S. may eventually add Bitcoin to its balance sheet—perhaps as part of a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' or similar asset. Considering this, our target is in the $110,000 range.'
It is evident that despite certain risks, some industry participants remain cautious about the current overheated market sentiment.
Retail movements: New investors are acting on the news, while mature investors continue to accumulate.
Under the influence of various factors, individual retail investors are also 'running to enter the market,' and the 'Trump effect' may continue to impact participation rates among cryptocurrency industry investors.
After Trump's election victory, Bitcoin's Google search volume surged, which may indicate new investors entering the market.
Market observers noted that after Trump's election victory, Google search volume for Bitcoin surged, indicating increased interest among retail investors. Solv Protocol co-founder Ryan Chow stated that Trump's election win is a 'major catalyst for launching the next bull market.' Crypto macro analyst Noelle Acheson said, 'Overall, retail investors tend to be 'latecomers' as they are influenced by price-related headlines and widespread social attention. The absence of retail investors allows market watchers to speculate that the crypto cycle is in its early stages; we will know we are close to the peak of speculation when retail investors begin to 'flood in.'
IntoTheBlock: After the U.S. elections, Bitcoin's daily large transaction volume surged to $90 billion.
According to IntoTheBlock, after the U.S. elections, the large transaction volume of Bitcoin surged, reaching a peak of $90 billion on November 6, indicating a significant increase in whale activity.
(Rich Dad Poor Dad) Author: Currently holds 73 Bitcoins, plans to hold 100 in a year.
(Rich Dad Poor Dad) Author Robert Kiyosaki stated that he previously purchased his first Bitcoin for $6,000 and will continue to buy at $76,000. He now holds 73 Bitcoins and plans to hold 100 Bitcoins in a year.
Opinion: Bitcoin's price may rise to $100,000 in January 2025 when Trump assumes the presidency.
Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at cryptocurrency custodian Copper.co, believes that by January 20, 2025, when Trump takes office, Bitcoin's price could reach $100,000. He added that these gains 'are occurring against a backdrop of a weak dollar, which is different from today's strong dollar environment.' Given that Bitcoin ETFs currently hold about 1.1 million Bitcoins, the momentum in the coming months may be positive.
Additionally, Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, stated that while it is challenging to predict Bitcoin's price, reaching the $100,000 target 'does not seem too far-fetched' a few months from now. He added: 'Given the bullish momentum and the fact that the economy has avoided recession, we expect Bitcoin's downside potential is now limited. The $100,000 target looks very reasonable.'
In summary, individual retail investors still appear optimistic about the future, and the continuous wealth effect or hot market is expected to attract new investors to join.
Conclusion: Bitcoin's price breaking through $100,000 will be a new starting point, but risk management needs to be in place.
Considering national, institutional, and individual levels, as Bitcoin stabilizes above $80,000, its price breaking through $100,000 has become a matter of when, not if. However, during this process, the market may experience several small adjustments, and after Trump officially takes office in January, Bitcoin's strategic reserves and a series of crypto-friendly regulatory measures are worth looking forward to.
Before this, perhaps as Bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester previously stated: 'Bitcoin rising to $79,000, setting a new high, is just the beginning. It is time to maintain the correct practices and stabilize. There is no need for rash actions; HODLing will do the work for you.'
