Author: OurNetwork
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
This week has been exceptionally noteworthy both on-chain and off-chain, primarily due to the U.S. presidential election. During this process, cryptocurrency-supported prediction markets played a crucial role in tracking the final election outcomes. In particular, Polymarket, which saw trading volumes in the billions, received significant attention within political circles as it predicted election outcomes before mainstream media coverage.
Therefore, before we begin regular Bitcoin reporting, we have also prepared a special report on prediction markets for you. As always, on-chain data and OurNetwork's top analyst team present a unique story.
Prediction Market + Bitcoin Ecosystem
Polymarket | Ostium | Bitcoin ETF | Rootstock | BOB
Polymarket
Ario | Website | Dashboard
Polymarket's trading volume in prediction markets surpassed $3.11 billion within 30 days.
The decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket has been active during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Users bet on various outcomes on the platform, with trading volume exceeding $3.11 billion in the past 30 days. Since late September, Polymarket's trading volume has surged sharply, initially averaging around $17 million per day, soaring to over $376 million on November 5 (election day), a 22-fold increase.
Flipside - @Ario
Volume analysis shows that 27% of transaction amounts are between $1,000 and $5,000, while another 25% of transactions are between $100 and $1,000, indicating high retail user participation. Additionally, over 20% of the total transaction volume comes from transactions exceeding $20,000, highlighting the significant influence of major market participants.
Flipside - @Ario
Polymarket's daily active user count hit a new high of 57,300 on November 5, a significant increase from fewer than 400 users in early May. This growth, coupled with a high return rate of previous users, indicates strong user engagement. On November 5, a record 15,800 new wallets joined the platform.
Flipside - @Ario
Ostium
Kaledora Kiernan-Linn | Website | Dashboard
Ostium's trading volume surpassed $50 million.
Ostium is making macroeconomics tradable. Users only need to have a wallet and 10 USDC to long and short various assets ranging from forex, commodities to cryptocurrencies and stock indices through perpetual contracts. Over 65% of Ostium's cumulative trading volume comes from actual assets, with USD/JPY dominating trading volume recently due to fluctuations in the yen and decisions from the Bank of Japan. While CL/USD (oil) had a smaller trading volume, its independent trading occurrences ranked second, accounting for over 20% of the platform's total trades.
Dune - @ostium
Dune - @ostium
Trading volume closely follows macro events related to various assets. In the commodity market (primarily oil), on October 25, the day Israel launched retaliatory strikes against Iran, trading volume hit an all-time high as the market feared potential damage to Iranian oil fields and its impact on prices.
Dune - @ostium
Ostium recently launched the 'Strategies' feature, a product based on its trading engine that allows traders to automate trading strategies based on prediction market data, such as 'If TrumpWin probability exceeds 70%, then go long on gold.' In the 10 days leading up to the election, traders created over 280 strategies on Ostium, with more than 100 created on election night alone.
Ostium (internal)
Bitcoin ETFs
Ali Taslimi | Dashboard
ETF issuers accumulated 1 million Bitcoins within 10 months, accounting for over 5% of Bitcoin's circulating supply.
Grayscale was once the largest Bitcoin ETF holder, but due to ongoing monthly sell-offs, BlackRock has taken its place. In just 10 months, the Bitcoin holdings of ETF issuers increased from 600,000 to over 1 million, accounting for 5% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. This sustained buying pressure has driven up Bitcoin prices, setting new historical highs and reflecting strong institutional interest in Bitcoin.
Flipside - @alitaslimi
Daily Bitcoin net inflows indicate that issuers actively purchased Bitcoin in the 30 days leading up to the U.S. election. Despite increased selling pressure from Ark/21Shares and Bitwise recently, and a general rise in token prices post-election, BlackRock and Fidelity emerged as the biggest beneficiaries.
Flipside - @alitaslimi
Since the beginning of the year, despite price fluctuations, the proportion of Bitcoin held by issuers has steadily increased. ETFs have driven Bitcoin prices higher, and issuers continue to accumulate Bitcoin, indicating that these institutions may be implementing long-term investment strategies.
Flipside - @alitaslimi
Rootstock
Guilherme Wenceloski & Martin Benedikt Busch | Website | Dashboard
Rootstock's TVL has grown 107% year-on-year, secured by 60% of Bitcoin hashing power.
Rootstock is the leading DeFi Layer 2 solution on Bitcoin. Its innovative roadmap (including BitVMX and Union Bridge) and focus on interoperability drive secure and scalable DeFi innovation. By the fourth quarter of 2024, the average total locked value (TVL) reached $171 million, a 68% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. This growth is primarily driven by partnerships with protocols like Sushi and Uniswap, as well as rising demand for Bitcoin DeFi.
Footprint - @BenediktBusch
Rootstock introduced Sushiswap as a new partner and decentralized exchange in June, enriching its product offerings and driving significant monthly growth in TVL. This collaboration enhanced Rootstock's DeFi capabilities, connecting Bitcoin to a broader DeFi ecosystem.
Footprint - @BenediktBusch
RootstockCollective, launched in September 2024, is a new DAO aimed at supporting developers and incentivizing projects on Bitcoin. Through RootstockCollective, developers can receive funding and governance rights. As of November 6, 2024, 6,645,263 RIF have been staked.
Footprint - @BenediktBusch
BOB
Dino | Website | Dashboard
BOB summer event platform breakthrough, daily trading volume surged by 27%.
Since its launch on May 1, the daily active users of BOB have steadily increased, peaking at 8,192 on June 4. However, throughout the summer, BOB's daily active users mostly remained between 3,000 and 3,500. This stagnation during the summer may indicate that the concept of 'DeFi on Bitcoin' is losing attention. However, this trend did not last long — BOB's daily active users rose again, averaging 5,589 in the past month, bringing the platform's total user count to 172,379.
Dune - @daedalus_angels
Similarly, BOB's daily trading volume hit a historical high of 145,224 transactions on May 27, stabilizing between 55,000 and 65,000 transactions over the next three months. Recently, BOB's daily trading activity broke this sideways trend, with a 4-week average trading volume reaching 74,033 transactions, an approximate increase of 27%.
Dune - @daedalus_angels
BOB's total locked value (TVL) is currently slightly above $120 million, including $68 million in WBTC, $24 million in ETH, $14 million in tBTC, and $8 million in eSOV.
Dune - @daedalus_angels
