BTC showed what a correction looks like in a bull market. And now - an important, 'strategic', post according to our assessment.

Locally, only the test of the first significant level ($75,744) of the five nearest levels was passed yesterday, with a correction executing all basic targets on the 15-minute timeframe and two on the 30-minute timeframe.

And - a new pump, with the execution of all basic and additional targets on these timeframes. With a break of the bearish ascending wedge. And another test of the ascending trend line since October 2023. A new ATH has been set at $80,080.

It's frustrating to be wrong twice in a week.

- For the first time - expecting another move down before breaking out of the 6-month range during the presidential elections.

- The second time yesterday, when we estimated that the correction would be, at most, to $73,808.

But the positive outweighs, and here we are already talking about the long term:

1. We waited for half a year for the range to break upwards, not downwards. Saying that this is a consolidation before continuing to rise, not a distribution to retail at the highs. And it turned out to be true.

2. The bull run is likely already underway. Our indicator on the weekly timeframe has not yet shown the transition of #BTC into a stable uptrend for one simple reason - the trend change occurs upon the closing of the weekly candle. The last candle made this transition but closed as a false bearish.

What is the extreme basic (!) target for this growth right now?

- $89,700 on the weekly timeframe,

- $91,630 on the monthly timeframe.

This is a truncated fifth wave scenario, and it's very unlikely that this will be the cycle's maximum. There is also reason to look at Fibonacci levels, stretching from the low of $15,476 in November 2022 to the high of $73,777 in March 2023 (the high before the accumulation). The level of 1.618 corresponds to a price of $109,807. We have already mentioned that this is our minimum target for the current cycle. Maximum targets are around $200,000-$300,000, and for now, it’s difficult to say anything more concrete. The target of 2.618 on Fibonacci is $168,108, 3.618 is $226,409, and 4.618 is $262,439. The last two are for BTC maximalists.

By the way, around $90,000 - a significant resistance based on two highs of the previous cycle. Breaking this trend line may lead to a 'candle of God'.

3. Another confirmation of the idea that the dump on August 5 was a long squeeze before breaking out of the accumulation. A -50% drop to shake out everyone from their positions, including those with 2x leverage (as during the corona dump) - did not happen. Perhaps they will catch up by bringing it down another 30-40% after a vigorous rise. For now - classic - a couple of weeks after the buy signal from Hash Ribbons on the monthly timeframe, there was a long squeeze, and the market went up a couple of months later.

4. And finally - the altcoin portfolio is growing and is very pleasing. Many purchases are still significantly in the red, BUT there are assets like #APT, #LINK that were bought for literally a few dollars. 'Free' tokens after selling half for +100% profit are available for #SUI, #XRP, and others. All public transactions are available in the channel, some have survived a tough accumulation period. We will only sell our altcoins based on the signal from our indicator. For investments, the markers for full/partial sales are a strong signal of a potential high on the monthly timeframe and/or a transition to a stable downtrend on the weekly timeframe.

By the way, regarding altcoins - one of our subscribers showed on a whole range of charts what BTC looked like before January 2023. Accumulation according to Wyckoff. This topic deserves a separate post. Most have not EVEN STARTED their growth yet.

What needs to be done is to recalibrate the attitude towards technical signals. Indicators, patterns, everything in general. Half a year of range has conditioned us to expect that they work in both directions. This time, the signals of a potential high on the 12-hour timeframe for BTC were broken. It should now be accepted as a dogma - any short signals can be broken.

We will write a separate post with our vision on the nuances of working with our indicator in the conditions of a bull run. But the first recommendation on the surface - signals of a potential low and targets of emerging stable downtrends - are rather opportunities to buy more, not to short. We are waiting for the end of the week to see if the indicator confirms a signal to transition to a stable uptrend on the weekly timeframe. Most likely a formality, but important.