GSR Research Analyst Toe Bautista said after Trump won the US election that from the perspective of altcoins, many project owners have been waiting for the opportunity to see what happens with other token issuances and the election results. He also believes that if macro conditions remain favorable, Bitcoin prices may rise further. "It is easy to foresee Bitcoin going to $80,000, whether it is Q1 or the end of next year."
After Trump was elected as the President of the United States, everyone expected BTC to break through $80,000 soon, but no one expected that $80,000 would come so quickly.
Micro Strategy Positions
Micro Strategy is a company that holds a large amount of BTC. Currently, MicroStrategy holds a total of 252,220 bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of approximately US$9.9 billion and an average purchase price of approximately US$39,266. The current total value of Bitcoin holdings is US$20.177 billion.
ETF Inflows
The ETF attracted much attention when it was first launched, mainly because of the influx of a large amount of new funds, and the price of Bitcoin also set a new record. However, the total funds of the ETF soon began to flow out, and the market sentiment began to decline. But recently, the BTC ETF has continued to see a large amount of capital inflow.
Not only did it set a new record for net daily capital inflow, it also set a new record for holdings. The logic is also very clear. After Trump takes office, there is a high probability that "cryptocurrency gold" will appear, and the power of American political forces to support cryptocurrencies will become stronger and stronger. For the "big players" in traditional finance, their capital allocation for cryptocurrencies is likely to increase, and BTC ETF has become the most convenient channel for investing in cryptocurrencies. For other US stock investors, BTC ETF will also become very attractive under Trump's platform.
Rate cuts
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, which was much higher than expected. Bitcoin also surged in response. A 25 basis point interest rate cut was also confirmed in the November interest rate meeting, which was generally understood by the market as a positive factor. After all, the starting point of the last bull market was the interest rate cut in March 2020.
November historical data
In addition to the data, there is also a sense of ceremony.
According to Coinglass data, after Bitcoin halved in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the investment returns in the fourth quarter performed well, at 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02%, respectively. The return rate in November 2016 was 5.42%, and the return rate in November 2020 was 42.95%. The return rate this month is still worth looking forward to.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin closed up 7.35% in September this year, setting a record for its best performance in history. Historically, every time Bitcoin closed up in September, it would rise until the end of the year.
After dawn, history will come.
What do traders think about the future trend of Bitcoin?
PlanB: BTC is expected to reach $1 million by the end of 25
PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and is well-known in the crypto industry for his unique model of the relationship between asset scarcity and price. His analysis looks at the growth potential of Bitcoin's long-term value, especially price fluctuations after the halving event. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may usher in an unprecedented price surge. PlanB constructs a series of monthly timelines to show the direction of Bitcoin's price development under different market scenarios.
In a forecast a few months ago, PlanB gave specific values based on its own model S2F:
November: Trump wins the election, Bitcoin price reaches $100,000. Trump wins the election, and PlanB believes that Bitcoin will usher in a major turning point. He pointed out that Trump's coming to power may bring friendly policies to cryptocurrencies, thus ending the current Biden/Harris administration's "war" on cryptocurrencies, especially the policy checks and balances on senior regulators such as Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, which will cause the price of Bitcoin to climb directly to $100,000.
December: ETF funds poured in, and Bitcoin soared to $150,000. PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear the way for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and a large amount of funds are expected to flow into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents the acceptance and recognition of the mainstream financial market and the trust of investors, which will further push the price of Bitcoin to $150,000.
January 2025: Crypto moves back to the U.S. and Bitcoin climbs to $200,000. As the Trump administration opens up its cryptocurrency policy, a large number of crypto industry companies and investors may bring their business back to the United States. PlanB predicts that this will have a significant market demand effect, pushing the price of Bitcoin to $200,000.
February 2025: The "Power Law" team takes profits and the price falls back to $150,000. The February pullback is a prediction of a Bitcoin market adjustment. PlanB believes that investors' profit-taking will cause Bitcoin to briefly fall back to $150,000 after hitting a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the rise.
March to May 2025: Bitcoin globalization trend, price breaks through $500,000. Starting in March, PlanB expects Bhutan, Argentina, Dubai and other countries to gradually use Bitcoin as legal tender, and starting in April, the United States will also start a strategic reserve of Bitcoin under the promotion of Trump. Then, in May, he believes that other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this trend, causing Bitcoin to further climb to $500,000.
June 2025: AI boosts the price to $600,000. In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that artificial intelligence began to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He predicted that with the participation of AI in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive the price up, causing Bitcoin to break through $600,000.
July to December 2025: FOMO subsides and the price reaches $1 million. In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment begins to subside, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this time, Bitcoin has not only become a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have for global investors.
2026-2027: Market adjustment and bear market. In 2026, PlanB expects the price of Bitcoin to fall from $1 million to $500,000 and enter the distribution stage, while by 2027, the market will enter a bear market and the price of Bitcoin is expected to drop to $200,000.
PlanB concluded that the key to this prediction lies in the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He pointed out that scarcity will become a core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, Bitcoin prices are expected to jump driven by the halving effect and market demand, thereby continuing to consolidate its position as "digital gold" among global investors.
The key to PlanB's prediction is the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He pointed out that investors like scarcity, and there are basically three options for scarcity now: real estate (S2F 100, market value of $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market value of $20 trillion) or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market value of $1 trillion). Therefore, the scarcity of Bitcoin will become a core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold.
PlanB proposed the opposite scenario, that if Harris wins, he believes it will represent the "end of Western civilization" and continue to exacerbate the decline of the American empire. He expects the crypto industry to be further oppressed under the supervision of Gensler and Warren, continue more choke point actions, and may even face more stringent tax policies, such as the introduction of unrealized capital gains tax. However, he also emphasized that Bitcoin does not rely on a specific regulatory environment, and its value drive will still come from the global demand for scarcity.
Alex Krüger: BTC spot will be the main currency on election night
Alex Krüger, an Argentine economist, trader and consultant, believes that the election results will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin prices:
Trump wins: Bitcoin's target price is $90,000 by the end of the year. Krüger believes that after Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin will quickly rush to $90,000 by the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that the price of Bitcoin will "soar rapidly" because the market has partially anticipated the positive impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there is still a certain degree of price underestimation, and the market's rapid reaction will be reflected immediately shortly after the news is confirmed.
The Giver: Midterms will fall after the election
The Giver is an anonymous senior investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He currently works in special situation private equity, providing a different perspective. The Giver's strategy is more conservative and short-term-focused than Krüger and PlanB. He believes that the election-driven rise in Bitcoin is more of a temporary phenomenon than a long-term trend. This view places special emphasis on the driving effects of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may see a downward adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is:
The driving force behind Bitcoin's rise this time is from event-driven "non-sticky" buyers, that is, some short-term speculators seeking to hedge against election risks, not due to overall trends. These buyers will not hold Bitcoin for a long time, and they may quickly exit the market once the election dust settles. Therefore, these funds lack "stickiness" and Bitcoin prices may face selling pressure after the election.
The sluggish performance of altcoins and the concentration of Bitcoin. In his opinion, the inflow of funds is mainly concentrated in Bitcoin, but not widely in altcoins, which leads to the sluggish performance of altcoins. This shows that the current capital flow is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool, rather than the benefit of the entire crypto market.
The Giver expects that Bitcoin's open interest and positions will continue to be crowded in the coming week, and even reach new highs. He pointed out that this "right-side effect" may bring a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices, but it is unlikely to last into the next year due to the limited market capacity in the fourth quarter of 2024. This short-term effect makes it more likely that Bitcoin prices will peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is not enough to support a long-term rally.
Based on this judgment, The Giver gave a relatively aggressive investment strategy: Based on the current market environment, he suggested going long on Bitcoin and shorting other mainstream coins and altcoins. Bitcoin will test $70,000 before Election Day, but after the results are announced, no matter who wins, there will eventually be a mid-term decline. More related reading: (From the Trump effect, Microstrategy premium to the liquidity cycle, analyzing BTC price performance in 2024)
Markus: Hedging strategy of long BTC and short SOL
Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research. His prediction of Bitcoin's market value of $1 trillion a few months ago was extremely accurate and quickly spread among the investment community, making him famous.
Markus' latest analysis is based on 10X Research's latest signal model, which has a hit rate of 73% to 87%, usually achieved within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if the price of Bitcoin continues to develop along the historical trend, it may rise by 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in a month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, the price of Bitcoin may exceed $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach a target of about $140,000 on April 29, 2025.
Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election results on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Markus predicted that after Trump takes office, Bitcoin may rise by 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also gain similar gains. He believes that Trump's victory will bring a more cryptocurrency-friendly policy environment, which is expected to drive the market up.
In this scenario, Markus recommends a strategy of “going long on Bitcoin and short on Solana” to hedge against the uncertainty caused by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or disputed, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.
In the event that the election results are controversial or Harris' victory causes a short-term decline in Bitcoin, Markus emphasized that Bitcoin may still show strong resistance to declines, and therefore recommends that investors seize the buying window after a short-term decline in Bitcoin.
From the derivatives market and on-chain data, the total amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders increased in October, while the Bitcoin holdings of long-term holders decreased. This dynamic usually appears when the price is about to break through an important threshold. The total amount of open contracts in the Bitcoin options market has soared to $22.5 billion in 2024, showing the market's high sentiment for the Bitcoin bull market. Bitcoin's 25 Delta skewness is at the lower end of the annual range (-8% to -10%), which indicates strong bullish sentiment.
Thielen also paid special attention to the impact of MicroStrategy's stock performance on Bitcoin prices. He pointed out that MicroStrategy's stock price has risen 33% since October, and its stock surge has had a "dog tail effect" on Bitcoin prices. The covering of a large number of short positions has also further boosted the market's bullish sentiment on Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered analyst: If Trump wins, BTC will rise to $125,000 by the end of the year
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick has predicted that Bitcoin’s price could climb to $125,000 by the end of the year if Trump wins the November election, Cointelegraph reported on Oct. 25.
Kendrick’s model shows that Bitcoin could stabilize around $73,000 on Election Day (November 5). In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to rise by about 4% immediately and another 10% in the following days, with rising market confidence and a looser regulatory environment becoming the main drivers.
Meanwhile, a research report from another brokerage, Bernstein, pointed out that if Trump wins the US election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high later this year, and the price of Bitcoin may reach $90,000 by the fourth quarter. In contrast, if Harris wins, the market may expect increased regulation, and the price of BTC may fall back to the range of $30,000 to $40,000.
What we can predict in the future is that BTC has broken through the ATH, and there is no so-called "pressure level" in the future price increase. BTC has not let down any spot holder.
However, there are still about two months before Trump officially takes office. Will a new narrative emerge during this "narrative void" to lead the market to continue to rise? Will Trump fulfill his previous promises after taking office? Let us wait and see.
